Unlike the stacked West, the NBA’s Eastern Conference has been somewhat of a disappointment outside of Boston’s dominance.
The good news, though, is that every playoff series will be ultra-competitive outside of the 1v8 matchup. Armageddon could be coming for multiple teams depending on what happens, and this should be the most entertaining Eastern Conference first-round in recent memory.
Without further ado, let’s dive into each matchup.
#1 Celtics vs #8 Heat
Big question: Will Miami run Boston off the three-point line?
This is a mismatch for the ages, especially given that Jimmy Butler seems destined to miss the entire series. Boston should dominate, especially given each team’s respective playstyles.
In the regular season, threes made up 43.7% of the Celtics’ shots, which was the highest figure league-wide by 2.7%. Meanwhile, Miami gave up the third-most amount of threes at 39.6%, which plays directly into Boston’s biggest strength. The Heat will need to change their defensive structure in order to avoid being swept.
Key storyline
Tyler Herro’s offensive burden
Herro is arguably Miami’s best scorer, even with Butler in the lineup. Without the latter, though, he’ll need to ramp up his usage even more. Interestingly, the Heat’s offensive rating with Herro on and Butler off (114.7) was slightly better than their overall regular season number of 114.4, but both figures are still below average and won’t be good enough to make Boston sweat.
Prediction: Celtics in 4
Simply put, this will be the most lopsided series in the first round.
#2 Knicks vs #7 Sixers
Big question: Can the Sixers contain New York on the glass?
Last year, the biggest reason New York beat Cleveland was due to their dominant offensive rebounding. That philosophy has carried over to this season, as the Knicks had the highest ORB% in the league at a whopping 32.2%.
Surprisingly, the Sixers were one of the worst teams in defensive rebounding, as their opponents corralled 28.5% (26th league-wide) of their own shots. Even with Embiid on the floor, opponents still grabbed 26% of their misses, which is barely better than the league average of 26.5%. With the reigning MVP still looking hobbled, New York could replicate last year’s playoff success if the other Sixers don’t step up to the plate.
Key storylines
Embiid’s defensive positioning
In the play-in game against Miami, Embiid was in a deep drop that allowed shooters such as Tyler Herro get decent looks. Employing the same strategy against Jalen Brunson would be akin to waving the white flag, as New York’s lead guard shot 49% from the mid-range and 40% from deep this season.
New York’s secondary creation
With Julius Randle out for the season, New York’s entire offensive burden has been placed on the shoulders of Brunson. If Philly throws the kitchen sink at him and slows him down, can other Knicks step up to the plate? OG Anunoby is a proven shooter and Donte DiVincenzo has been elite from deep this year, but Josh Hart and Isaiah Hartenstein/Mitchell Robinson are complete non-shooters in their starting lineup.
Prediction: Knicks in 6
New York is uniquely positioned to exploit Philly’s struggles on the glass, which will be an even bigger problem given that Embiid’s still not 100%. The Knicks’ toughness and grit remind me of Miami’s last year, and they have a real shot of meeting Boston in the Conference Finals.
#3 Bucks vs #6 Pacers
Big question: How many threes will the Bucks take and make?
With Giannis sidelined to begin the series, the Bucks will lean heavily on Dame and their perimeter players to generate offense. They’re no strangers to playing such a style, either: since the All-Star game, Milwaukee’s 41.7% shots taken from three is second only to Boston, and their 37.2% conversion rate is 12th.
On the other end, the Pacers have conceded the lowest percentage of opponent shots from deep at just 30.1%, and have also been fortunate that opponents have only made 35.5% of their attempts (fifth lowest rate) over that span.
A trickle-down effect of Milwaukee potentially focusing on perimeter scoring could be a lack of rim attempts. This also favors the Pacers, as they’re dead last league-wide since the All-Star break in giving up the highest percentage of shots around the basket at 36.2%.
Key storylines
Pace
Over the final 15 games of the season, the Pacers played at the fifth fastest pace while the Bucks were 16th. Given Milwaukee’s aging roster, they could have trouble keeping up with Indiana, especially if Giannis misses an extended amount of time.
Turnovers
Since the All-Star break, the Pacers have turned the ball over on just 11.4% of their possessions, which ranks second during that span. Meanwhile, the Bucks have been dead last in forcing turnovers at 11.8%. That’s by design, but Milwaukee might need to gamble more on defense in the hopes of generating more scoring due to Giannis’ absence.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
The Bucks’ end to their season couldn’t have been worse, and the fact that Giannis has already been ruled out for the start of the series doesn’t inspire confidence in a potential return.
#4 Cavs vs #5 Magic
Big question: Who wins the interior battle?
A rock fight that’ll be reminiscent of the 90s, this series is made for true basketball psychos. Given the size of both teams, it’s not surprising that Orlando ended the season first in the percentage of attempts at the rim (38.5%) while Cleveland wasn’t far behind at fifth (35.4%), and the two sides were also middle of the pack in conversion rate.
They have similar defensive profiles, too: both teams are average in the amount of rim attempts allowed, while ranking third (Cleveland, 62.8%) and 10th (Orlando, 65.7%), respectively, in opponent shooting around the basket.
For two entrenched playoff teams, there are also a surprising number of questions regarding their lineups. Specifically, how often will the Cavs stagger the Mobley-Allen frontcourt? The fit remains clunky, but Cleveland’s rim protection is still at its best when they’re together. As for Orlando, how many minutes will Jonathan Isaac play? He’s arguably the best per-minute defensive player in the league and could push Wendell Carter Jr. to the bench if he continues shooting 37.5% from three.
Key storylines
Jalen Suggs vs Donovan Mitchell
After struggling with an injury in March, Mitchell looked like himself to close the regular season. With a week off before game 1, he should be close to 100%, and Cleveland will need him to get the best of Suggs, who might be the best perimeter defender in the league.
Paolo Banchero vs Evan Mobley
Similar to the Suggs-Mitchell dual, how Mobley defends Paolo will be a crucial x-factor in this series. In four games against Cleveland, Orlando’s star averaged 23 points on just 43% shooting — and that includes a 42-point outburst that saw him go 16-26 from the field.
Prediction: Cavs in 6
Maybe the basketball gods will punish Cleveland for tanking the season finale by playing a bunch of guys who are being scouted by the Guangdong Tigers, but the Cavs should win this with a healthy Mitchell.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.