Ohioans decisively rejected a ballot measure that aimed to raise the threshold for amending their state constitution, a move led by Republicans to make it more difficult to legalize abortion through public voting. This outcome marks a significant win for Democrats in a state that has seen numerous defeats for the left in recent years, while also dealing a blow to Republicans seeking to block efforts to protect abortion rights. A separate proposal to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution is already set for the November ballot and requires a simple majority to pass. With most votes counted, opponents of Issue 1 – the sole item on the August special election ballot – were comfortably leading.
While proponents of the measure framed it as a means of safeguarding the state constitution from outside special interests, substantial amounts of out-of-state funding were contributed by both sides throughout the campaign. However, the issue ultimately came down to the critical challenge posed by the Republican-supported law, which effectively banned abortion in Ohio following the overturning of Roe v. Wade last year. The outcome of this vote holds significant implications for Ohio’s upcoming electoral battles, including the presidential election and highly contested Senate race in 2024. Furthermore, it reflects the broader landscape following the post-Roe era, where abortion rights activists have sought alternative avenues to bypass Republican-controlled state legislatures.
Here are a few key takeaways from Ohio’s defeat of Issue 1:
1. It will inspire activists in other states: The special election highlights the consistent protection of abortion rights when the public has the opportunity to vote directly on the matter, irrespective of whether the states lean red or blue. Recent electoral tests in Kansas, Michigan, Kentucky, and Montana, where voters opted to maintain reproductive rights in their state constitutions, provide evidence of this trend. Arizona and Florida could become the next battlegrounds for direct voter input on abortion.
2. Abortion rights are more popular than the Democratic Party overall in Ohio: Notably, in counties that traditionally lean blue or are swing districts, a greater proportion of voters rejected Issue 1 compared to those who voted for Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 Senate race. For instance, in Wood County, which is a swing county south of Toledo, Issue 1 received a 56% “no” vote. The defeat of Issue 1 also occurred in suburban areas with Republican-leaning tendencies around Ohio’s major cities.
3. It will disrupt a significant GOP Senate primary and potentially harm the party in the future: Ohio’s chief elections officer and 2024 Senate candidate, Frank LaRose, actively supported Issue 1, which sought to keep abortion out of the state constitution. However, LaRose’s association with the failed measure could provide ammunition for his primary rivals, who can capitalize on his loss and portray him as out of touch with Ohio’s increasingly conservative electorate. If LaRose does secure the Republican nomination and the abortion rights measure passes in November, it would further strengthen the argument against him presented by Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who is a prime target for the GOP.
4. The funding of the election was primarily driven by external sources: Both sides invested millions of dollars, with total spending on TV advertisements for both the August election and the forthcoming abortion question on the November ballot reaching nearly $32 million. Democrats outspent Republicans in their efforts to defeat Issue 1, while Republicans are currently outspending Democrats for the election still three months away. The right’s messaging, which focused on anti-“woke” and culture war themes, failed to resonate with voters. Notably, a majority of the funding came from sources outside of Ohio, highlighting the national significance of this election.
In conclusion, Ohio’s rejection of Issue 1 has broader implications beyond the state and serves as a reminder of public support for protecting abortion rights. It invigorates activists across the nation, underscores the popularity of abortion rights even in traditionally conservative areas, impacts the GOP Senate primary, and reveals the influence of external funding and messaging on the outcome of the election.