Bengaluru: Janata Dal (Secular) national president HD Deve Gowda firmly rejected the idea of forming an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Tuesday, putting an end to weeks of speculation about a possible partnership in the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
“There is no question of allying with anybody. We will fight independently and on our own,” Gowda stated at a press conference in Bengaluru on Tuesday. The former Prime Minister also stated that JD(S) will contest as many seats as possible in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Gowda’s statement comes at a time when his son, former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy, has been hinting at a potential alliance between JD(S) and BJP.
Despite rumors of a merger between the regional party and BJP, senior JD(S) leaders have dismissed these claims.
Kumaraswamy has aligned with BJP in Karnataka over the past two weeks in an effort to challenge the Congress government led by Siddaramaiah on issues such as corruption and the behavior of the Speaker during the state legislature’s budget session.
The two parties have been attempting to join forces to counter the Congress in the lower house, or legislative assembly. In the upper house, or legislative council, the BJP and JD(S) have enough seats to control the passage of bills.
After the May 10 assembly elections, JD(S) secured 19 seats in the 224-seat lower house, while the Congress emerged victorious in 135 constituencies. The BJP only managed to secure 66 seats and lost power.
Following the elections, BJP infighting has intensified and the central leadership has redirected its focus towards other states with pending elections such as Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
Throughout the budget session, the BJP was forced to leave the Leader of the Opposition seat vacant. The Congress has mocked the BJP for the delay this caused.
“For all practical purposes, Kumaraswamy of JD(S) is the BJP’s leader of the opposition,” stated an unnamed Congress legislator.
However, some analysts believe that the alliances formed by JD(S) tend to be superficial.
“The JD(S) style is to rhetorically align with one party but fight separately. They did this with the Congress for many years and now they’re doing it with the BJP,” said Narendar Pani, political analyst and faculty member at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), in an interview with ThePrint.
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Who gains what in a JD(S)-BJP alliance?
In this year’s assembly elections, JD(S) suffered significant losses, winning only 19 seats compared to 37 in 2018, and losing nearly 6% of its vote share to the Congress.
Most of these lost votes came from the Old Mysuru region in southern Karnataka, where JD(S) traditionally had strong support. The party now fears further erosion of its support base in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Political analysts note that JD(S) and BJP have a good working relationship, providing each other assistance in areas where only one of them can challenge the Congress. In an attempt to regain some ground and avoid further political decline in Karnataka, JD(S) aligned itself with BJP while facing an existential crisis.
On the other hand, the Congress and JD(S) have a turbulent relationship. After the 2018 assembly elections, the two parties formed an alliance to prevent BJP from coming to power. However, in the subsequent national elections, JD(S) and Congress were reduced to only one seat each, while BJP won 25 out of the total 28 seats in the state.
JD(S) holds a unique position as the only party to ally with both BJP and Congress in Karnataka, earning them the labels of “kingmaker” and “opportunistic”.
In 2006, for example, Kumaraswamy broke away from the alliance with Congress and joined forces with BJP, allowing the latter to govern Karnataka for the first time.
Nevertheless, Gowda disapproved of Kumaraswamy’s alliance back then, and both the father-son duo have maintained that it was a mistake.
Analysts suggest that JD(S) stands to benefit more from a possible alliance with BJP, although BJP also stands to gain by making inroads in the old Mysuru region.
One analyst, speaking anonymously, speculated that the BJP may see JD(S) as useful for the short-term goal leading up to the 2024 elections, but may eventually “discard” them.
Currently, JD(S) has not expressed any interest or intention to join either Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the Congress-led I-N-D-I-A (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), which currently has the support of 26 parties.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)
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