Huge Untapped Potential for Offshore Wind in the US

The US possesses significant potential for offshore wind energy, according to a recent analysis conducted by the University of California, Berkeley. By 2050, offshore wind resources could generate up to 25% of the nation’s electricity, aiding in the achievement of global climate objectives. However, substantial efforts will be required to meet these goals, as the US currently has very limited offshore wind capacity. Despite the Biden administration’s efforts to expand offshore wind development, the industry is grappling with mounting political and financial obstacles. Nevertheless, the report demonstrates the long-term possibilities if the US can effectively utilize its sea-based wind resources. Nikit Abhyankar, a senior scientist at the University of California, Berkeley Center for Environmental Public Policy, stated during a press briefing that the spread of offshore wind potential across the country, including the East Coast, West Coast, Gulf, and Great Lakes region, represents a critical resource for diversifying clean energy supplies. To limit global warming in line with the Paris agreement, nations must achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Given the US’s historical contribution to greenhouse gas pollution, its participation is vital to mitigating the effects of climate change, such as worsened wildfires, heatwaves, droughts, and floods. The Biden administration has pledged to cut the nation’s emissions in half by the end of the decade and intends to procure electricity exclusively from carbon pollution-free sources by 2035. Additionally, the Berkeley report predicts that US electricity demand will nearly triple by 2050, necessitating the addition of 27 gigawatts of offshore wind and 85 gigawatts of land-based wind and solar annually between 2035 and 2050. Although this timeline may appear distant, it represents a substantial increase from the Biden administration’s current objective of deploying 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030. Meanwhile, Europe, which possesses an electricity grid roughly 70% the size of the US, has already achieved offshore wind capacity comparable to what the Biden administration aims to develop by the end of the decade. Currently, wind energy comprises just over 10% of the US electricity mix, with the majority derived from land-based turbines. Installing turbines at sea is more intricate and expensive, requiring specialized vessels capable of handling skyscraper-sized turbines. Furthermore, companies are still designing floating turbines to navigate the deeper depths of the Pacific Coast’s oceans. For now, the US only has two small wind farms off the coasts of Rhode Island and Virginia. Construction recently began on the foundations for the nation’s first commercial-scale wind farm near Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts. Nevertheless, numerous plans for offshore wind farms in the US face significant obstacles. Opposition from coastal communities, the fishing industry, and certain Republican lawmakers has grown. In some instances, these opponents have baselessly linked whale strandings on the east coast to offshore wind development. Project costs have risen due to higher interest rates and increased prices for crucial commodities like steel. Consequently, power purchase agreements have fallen through for some projects in early stages of development, including a plan in Rhode Island for an 884-megawatt wind farm that alone would have contributed more than 20 times the US’s current offshore wind capacity. Developers are struggling to make projects financially viable without passing costs on to consumers. Despite these challenges, the Berkeley researchers, who collaborated with nonprofit research firm GridLab and climate policy think tank Energy Innovation, remain optimistic. Their study found that ambitious renewable energy deployment would result in a modest 2-3% increase in wholesale electricity costs. Furthermore, considering the considerable decline in renewable energy costs in the past, the researchers believe that these costs will likely decrease over time. Abhyankar noted during the press call that the industry has consistently defied researchers’ expectations in the past and that cost impacts would not be a significant factor in the long run. Offshore wind developers have the potential to capitalize on stronger winds present over the smooth ocean surface compared to the land. Moreover, offshore wind complements land-based renewables, as it can compensate for the lack of solar energy at night. On the West Coast, offshore wind potential reaches its peak during the summer and evening hours when electricity demand for home air conditioning rises. On the East Coast, winds intensify during the winter, coinciding with increased heating demand if more structures transition to all-electric systems. While achieving this vision of clean energy will require extensive effort, it represents an important step towards a sustainable future.

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