Two weeks ago, West African leaders threatened to invade Niger if the military junta didn’t step down and reinstate the ousted president Mohamed Bazoum.
But those backing the ouster ignored it. And the tanks and troops never rolled in.
In the days since, thousands of Nigeriens have rallied in support of their camo-clad leaders while the military regimes in neighbouring Burkina Faso and Mali promised to defend Niger’s new army rulers.
And instead of a democracy-restoring invasion, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is now planning a summit on Thursday — and regional experts say any solution must be diplomatic, not armed.
But they warn something needs to be done soon to stabilize a region already wracked by Islamist insurgency and extreme poverty.
“We all saw what happened in Syria when Syria was under attack and the conflict there and how this led to the formation and expansion of ISIS,” said Olayinka Ajala, a lecturer at the University of Leeds Beckett in the United Kingdom.
“This same thing could actually happen in the Sahel.”
Niger is one of the largest countries in the region. And after last year’s coup in Mali, Niger has stepped in to become a bulwark against terrorism, hosting an American drone base and French troops.
But the new military leaders, led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tiani, have cut ties with those countries.
And young Nigeriens attacked the French embassy, the outpost of the country’s former colonizer.
Ajala, who specializes in the politics of the region, said any further co-operation is likely impossible and that Islamist insurgents stand to gain territory, especially in a country that is twice the size of France.
“You can imagine now with limited resources, limited allies, it will be very difficult for the military to continue to police or govern these countries without some of these organizations,” he said.
That would end years of efforts to fight the insurgency, which has killed thousands and displaced millions.
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