Fate of WSU and OSU, the Pac-12 Olympic sports and more

The Hotline mailbag typically publishes each Friday. Given the extraordinary developments that led to the demise of the Pac-12, we are producing three installments — the first was published Thursday, the second Saturday — in the hopes of addressing all the topics that matter to our readers.

Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

Today, schools in the Big Ten and SEC are safe. Do you see a scenario where schools like Arkansas, Mississippi State and Iowa are kicked out for teams that Fox or ESPN value more highly, such as Florida State or Miami? — @BakerMeow

As college football roils, there are two givens: Another wave of realignment will hit the sport in the late 2020s or early 2030s; and other schools will experience fates similar to that which walloped Washington State and Oregon State.

If nothing else, the developments in the Pac-12 will accelerate challenges to the NCAA’s economic structure, leading to athletes being classified as employees and entitled to a share of the massive revenue.

Any argument that football players are mere student-athletes after the Los Angeles and Pacific Northwest schools chased the cash and joined the Big Ten seems farcical, at least from a legal standpoint.

Attorneys for plaintiffs challenging the NCAA’s amateurism model are “salivating,” according to an industry source. “How can the schools possibly argue against the (National Labor Relations Board) — that the players aren’t employees — after all this?”

Any form of revenue sharing with players will increase financial pressures on athletic departments, driving a push for more money at the upper echelon of the sport — and potentially a bifurcation within the power conferences.

In one corner: Schools with the means and motivation to participate in a mini-NFL.

In the other: Schools without the wherewithal and willpower.

We aren’t fully convinced the powerhouses in the Big Ten and SEC will expunge the second-tier football programs from their leagues when the next media contract cycle arrives. Certainly, there would be massive political pushback.

But when the Big Ten signs a multi-billion-dollar deal in 2029, will Ohio State and Michigan agree to share revenue equally with Purdue and Rutgers?

Will Alabama and Georgia accept the same SEC distributions in the 2030s as Mississippi State and Vanderbilt?

Perhaps those leagues will adopt performance-based financial models, in which revenue distributions from the College Football Playoff and NCAA Tournament are based on participation and success.

More likely, the blue bloods will leverage a larger percentage of their conference’s guaranteed cash (the regular-season broadcast revenue), thus creating a caste system in the boardroom.

After all, the media companies are only going to spend so much for the rights to broadcast second-rate games.

At that point, there will be more have-nots than haves in major college football.

Which school in the Mountain West would pony up over $30 million dollars to join a reconfigured Pac-12? The answer is no one. — Tom C

We couldn’t agree more, but they won’t need to “pony up” the $34 million exit fee to join the Pac-12 next season.

If the ‘Pac-4’ attempts to rebuild, it could attempt to add teams from the American Athletic Conference, which has a lower exit fee, in time for the 2024 season.

The second step would be adding teams from the Mountain West for the fall of 2025, when their buyout would drop to $17 million.

Additionally, the Pac-12’s remaining quartet might have a stockpile of cash to wield in reconstruction, potentially offsetting exit fees owed by new members to former leagues.

The details are unclear, with Pac-12 attorneys examining the bylaws and financial officers scouring the books to determine assets and liabilities.

Could the Mountain West either license, or acquire, the Pac-12 name? — @Cargoman0363

Yes, and there is precedent.

When the Big East broke apart a decade ago, the basketball-playing schools — the so-called Catholic 7 — purchased the Big East name for their new league.

The terms were not disclosed, but the logic was clear: The Big East name carried enormous brand value within the college basketball space, just as the Pac-12’s name has value in college athletics — far more value than the Mountain West brand.

But we don’t foresee that outcome.

If Stanford and Cal stick around, the reformed Pac-12, which could include a handful of Mountain West schools, likely would keep the name.

If Stanford and Cal find other homes, then the Pac-12 would dissolve with WSU and OSU joining the Mountain West.

There would be little motivation or logic behind purchasing the Pac-12 name when 12 of the 14 schools never competed under than banner.

Why don’t the remaining four Pac-12 schools bring on Army, UConn and UMass on a football-only basis to create a seven-team conference, while having the balance of the sports at the remaining four Pac-12 schools merge with the West Coast Conference? — Mark Klitgaard

I’m not sure those schools make sense financially or competitively, and they are terrible fits logistically.

But your point about placing Olympic sports in the West Coast Conference makes loads of sense, especially for Stanford and Cal … if they choose to compete as Independents in football.

In many ways, the WCC is a better home than the Mountain West.

With the Pac-12 being down to basically two members now — but just say four, in case the Bay Area schools don’t leave — what happens to the Pac-12 Network and its assets? Do the remaining schools own them? Could WSU and OSU take the network with them to the Mountain West? — @ag10899

The Pac-12 Network’s value lies in its distribution contracts, which expire next summer and won’t be renewed (for obvious reasons).

At that point, the only value in Larry Scott’s brainchild will be the infrastructure.

Without a network of its own, the Mountain West would have no use for the equipment and technology.

There is only one scenario in which the networks have a shred of value after the 2023-24 sports season: If the ‘Pac-4’ rebuild the conference and sign a media rights deal with a streaming service that needs the Pac-12 Networks to handle event production.

How much better did the Apple offer need to be for Oregon and Washington to not reengage with the Big Ten? One linear game per week? Two? An additional $2 million per school? — @Wiley_E_Dawg

Were the schools seeking a baseline number of linear games per week, or appearances per season? We don’t know the specifics and perhaps never will.

Nor have we confirmed that the deal fully precluded Apple and the Pac-12 from selling a package of games to linear networks.

Clearly, no linear guarantee existed. But several key aspects of the deal were still under discussion — including the means by which the Pac-12 could hit the subscription targets — when the situation blew apart.

Are Stanford and Cal so committed to the idea of “academic fit” (which, LOL for sports) that they would sign up student-athletes to travel 2,000-3,000 miles to compete instead of like 50-500? — @WorkishFromHome

I see what you did there.