Significant amounts of rainfall are still possible in the Bay Area in the remaining part of the week, but forecasts continued to trend drier than anticipated as Tuesday morning broke, according to the National Weather Service.
Monday’s forecast predicted that a stormy week would kick off around midnight on Tuesday morning, but NWS models showed only trace amounts of rain between 1 a.m. and 7 a.m. in Oakland and Concord and just .03 inches at San Francisco International Airport. All other major parts of the Bay Area south of the Golden Gate Bridge stayed virtually dry.
The storms did bring rain down in the North Bay, however, with Santa Rosa receiving .29 inches and Petaluma seeing four one hundredths of an inch.
“I know this was kind of a dynamic forecast with a lot of uncertainty associated with it a few days out,” said NWS meteorologist Sarah McCorkle. “Now we have a better idea of how much rain we’re going to get and it does look like we’re trending a bit downwards.”
McCorkle added that the downward trend doesn’t mean that the week will remain dry. NWS predictions still showed between .5 and 1.5 inches of total rainfall likely to hit most of the Bay Area between Wednesday and Saturday, including in Oakland, San Francisco, San Jose, Concord, Livermore and Half Moon Bay.
Tuesday morning’s NWS rain probabilities for the week remained highest for most of Wednesday. Between 6 a.m. Wednesday and midnight Thursday morning, a vast majority of the Bay Area was forecast for at least an 85% chance of rain. That figure crossed 90% in many places including San Jose, Oakland and San Francisco.
The higher confidence levels don’t equal a forecast of intense, ravaging storms, however. Most places were still expected to stay around the half-inch of rainfall mark, if not less, on Wednesday in particular.
“(Wednesday) will be wet across most of the Bay Area,” McCorkle said. “And then we’ll get off-and-on rain chances throughout the rest of the week.”
A NWS bulletin published Tuesday morning said that a low pressure system was headed toward the region on Friday, and while the confidence remained high that more rain will follow, it was still unclear exactly how much to expect.