Full-time jobs ‘collapse’ the most since height of the Covid pandemic
Peter Hannam
That steady 3.9% jobless rate for December masked quite a bit going on. As noted, the economy shed 106,600 full-time roles in the month, which Bloomberg notes was the largest drop since May 2020 when Covid was flaring.
Ben Udy, lead economist for Oxford Economics Australia, described the shift as a “collapse” – although there remain about 9.8m people in full-time jobs so that might be a strong descriptor. He is on the mark with his point that “the softening in the labour market is now undoubtedly well under way”.
The ABS‘s labour specialist, David Taylor, noted the tally of hours worked had been dropping through the second half of last year. Hours worked last month were back to levels of last February, he said.
Across the states, NSW continued to have the lowest jobless rate at 3.4%, unchanged from November. Victoria’s rate was also unchanged at 4% while Queensland’s improved to 4.3% from 4.4%. The ACT and WA were two regions to see the rate tick higher, coming in at 3.9% for both.
There’s no doubt of a few big shifts in the jobs figures even if the overall unemployment rate was steady. It remains to be seen what revisions the ABS has to make because of the floods and storms, mostly in Queensland, that might have affected data for last month.
For now the ABS reckons the survey data from Queensland is “fit for publication without any need for imputation”. However, it is open to undertaking “additional analysis of the collected data to ensure the quality of final estimates”.
Let’s see if we’re not publishing a few sizeable revisions in a month’s time.
Key events
And in even more weather news: Andrea Peace, a meteorologist with the BoM, has answered some commonly asked questions about El Nino in this video.
She answers why El Nino is still active, even though its been a wet summer in the east.
#ElNiño is still active, even though it’s been a wet summer in the east. Senior Meteorologist Andrea Peace answers some of the questions we’ve been receiving about the recent weather & the effects of El Niño.
For more information about El Niño, visit: https://t.co/13KrlHirBX pic.twitter.com/LuN1aXkMcN
— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) January 18, 2024
Our very own Graham Readfearn also wrote this fantastic explainer on the same topic earlier this month:
Coastal Queensland prepares for cyclone threat
As we’ve flagged throughout the blog today, coastal Queensland from Cooktown to Mackay is preparing for an imminent cyclone threat to develop by late Tuesday next week.
The cyclone would be known as Kirrily and it coincides with a massive clean-up effort in far north Queensland that is finally gaining momentum after record flooding in December caused by Cyclone Jasper.
State MP Craig Crawford said:
The wet season’s potentially got a couple of months to go – we are barely a third of the way through.
We know we typically get the worst of our wet seasons in February-March and we haven’t got there yet.
This season has certainly shown us … that all bets are off when it comes to predicting the weather.
– with AAP
Properties near Grafton cut off amid storms
Sticking with the weather and AAP has more details on the warm, humid and stormy conditions across large tracts of Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales today.
About 150 properties at Orara River, near Grafton in the NSW Northern Rivers region, have been left isolated and could remain cut off for several days. However, the State Emergency Service is confident it can get supplies to residents when needed.
The agency responded to about 200 incidents across NSW between midday on Wednesday and Thursday morning.
Sydney was hit with heavy rain overnight, including 49mm at Penrith and nearly 40mm in the city centre.
Flood watch in place for Cape York Peninsula
A flood watch remains in place for the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, as monsoonal rain falls across the region.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the monsoon – which extends across the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, base of Cape York Peninsula and into the Coral Sea – will persist for several days.
In the 24 hours to 9am, rainfall totals of up to 130mm were recorded.
The BoM said abnormally high tides are forecast along the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and through the Torres Strait, with sea levels “potentially exceeding the highest tide of the year”.
Further riverine flooding is possible within the flood watch area over the next few days. Flood warnings are current for the following catchments:
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Tully and Murray rivers
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Herbert River
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Paroo River
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Barcoo River
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Bulloo River
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Diamantina River
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Daintree River
PM says Bali bombing conspirators ‘finally being held accountable’
Overnight, Malaysians Mohammed Nazir Bin Lep and Mohammed Farik Bin Amin pleaded guilty to conspiring in the 2002 Bali bombings that killed more than 200 people.
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, responded to this on social media, writing:
The 2002 Bali bombings took the lives of 202 people, including 88 Australians. Hundreds more were wounded, with victims and their families still living with the trauma of that day.
We welcome the fact that the terrorists responsible for these attacks are now finally being held accountable for their actions. We pay tribute to the courage and resilience shown by those whose lives were forever changed by those horrific acts of terrorism.
We also thank the Australian federal police for the extraordinary work they did supporting the victims and their families, and assisting Indonesia with the investigation to bring to justice those responsible for this atrocity.
Josh Butler
Dutton says if Albanese abandons stage-three tax cuts ‘his leadership is over’
Peter Dutton has bared his teeth on talk of Anthony Albanese potentially tinkering with the stage-three tax cuts, claiming “I think his leadership’s over” if the government changes the legislated settings.
It further escalates the stakes for consideration of the tax cuts – which disproportionately benefit richer Australians – which many in Labor would prefer to scale back.
Dutton said on 2GB this morning:
I think his leadership’s over if he abandons the stage three tax cuts because Australians have seen this movie before and they don’t reward leaders who go to an election with an ironclad guarantee, and then knowingly break it.
Now to step back a moment, the government has consistently said their plans haven’t changed on the tax cuts, which come in from July.
You may remember this is the third stage of the Morrison-era tax plan, with earlier stages (benefiting lower and middle income earners) coming in years ago. Labor initially opposed stage three, but later voted for the plan as the Coalition government wouldn’t split the bill up, and has since said they won’t change them.
But the ballooning costs of the cuts – now estimated at more than $300bn over a decade, with those in the top 20% of incomes getting $227bn alone – has many in Labor more nervous.
The PM has said that the government’s plans haven’t changed, and this week guaranteed that “tax cuts will happen in July” – but the opposition remains prickly, accusing Albanese of “weasel words” by not specifically promising that the whole legislated cuts will occur. On 2GB, Dutton gave a flavour of what the opposition would chase if there are changes.
“If the Prime Minister breaks that promise, then I think his leadership is done, and I think Bill Shorten would be licking his chops at the thought that Mr Albanese is going to walk away from it,” he said, referring to former Labor leader Shorten.
But instead of just a straight answer and being honest, the prime minister has to give this coded form of words, as you say, in every tortured press conference that he does, where he says a thousand words, but really doesn’t say anything at all, and he’s trying to play again to the element in his party room who are on the phone to him saying, ‘you’ve got to ditch these tax cuts’, and the other half of the party room that’s saying ‘you’ve got to honour your election commitments’.
While its exact location may be a mystery, a 2017 Instagram post reveals what Djokovic’s special tree friend looks like – and she’s a beauty:
Jo Khan
Novak Djokovic tells press conference about his favourite tree in Melbourne
After his four-set defeat of Australian Alexei Popyrin on Rod Laver Arena last night, the world No 1, Novak Djokovic, revealed there was one place in Melbourne that he keeps going back to even when he’s deep in the tournament.
“There’s one particular tree that I’ve been having [a] special relationship with, so to say, in the last 15 years,” Djokovic said in his post-match press conference.
“I love every corner of botanical gardens. I think it’s incredible treasure for Melbourne to have such a park and nature in the middle of the city. That particular tree, I cannot reveal which one, I’ll try to keep it discreet for myself when I’m there to have my own time. I like to ground myself and connect with that old friend.”
Q. What is it about that tree?
“I got connected with that tree. I just liked it. I liked its roots and the trunks and branches and everything. So I started climbing it years ago. That’s it. I just have a connection.”
What type of tree could cast such a spell over the champion tennis player? It will remain his secret for now.
Mediation fails in unfair dismissal case between Lattouf and the ABC
Meanwhile, Antoinette Lattouf’s case against the ABC in the Fair Work Commission has reached a stalemate today, with neither party coming to an agreement in mediation.
Outside court, Lattouf gave a short statement in which she said she was determined to see the case through:
The matter did not resolve today but the fight continues and I am willing and prepared to fight for as long as it takes and I want to take a moment to thank the millions of people around the country, so much support around the country, but also overseas.
This is such an important case because it is not just about me, it is about free speech. It is about racism and about the important role [we] play in [truth]-telling and about a fair independent and robust ABC. I love [the] ABC and I will always advocate and fight for an ABC that can operate and inform the masses, inform and entertain the masses without fear or favour.
Burke says not unusual for states to differ from federal counterparts when asked over Victoria’s position on IR bill
Asked about a letter sent from the Victorian treasurer, Tim Pallas, to Burke and the prime minister lobbying for the government to back away from their industrial reform bill, Burke said he wasn’t sure when it had come to his office.
He added that it was “not unusual” for state ministers to differ in their positions compared to their federal counterparts:
It is not unusual for state ministers to have a different view to the federal minister. And I have no doubt that minister Pallas is acting in the interest of his government in writing that.
I do want to make this point about the amendment that passed the house of representatives. The concept that if agreement is not reached, you would not go backwards on conditions is actually not new. It was, prior to the Secure Jobs Better Pay legislation [of 2022] how it had worked in Australia for years.
The difference was – you wouldn’t go backwards and there would never be an arbitration. That your conditions would go backwards and everything would effectively freeze.
The intention of Better Jobs Secure Pay was to get conditions moving. One of the things that happened after the legislation passed was some employer consultants had found a way to effectively game the system, and I’m not referring to the Victorian government here in any way.
But some employers had found a way to effectively game the system, which was to not negotiate in good faith, wait until it was time for intractable bargaining and then try your luck. And where you previously might have had an enterprise agreement that had really good pay and conditions for your workforce, roll the dice, through arbitration, you may be able to get it back down again.
And that wasn’t what we were intending to do. So that’s the reason for the change. And it is also … completely consistent with how the world, in fact, worked, prior to Secure Jobs Better Pay.
Government has no intention of intervening in dispute between port company and union
The employment minister Tony Burke is speaking in Sydney following meetings with unions and DP World over their dispute and has begun by saying he has “no intention of intervening.”
Burke said the position of the company doesn’t “impress him” and that he expected all parties to “be at the table, to be negotiating to resolve this.”
I have made clear to the company as well – if they had invested as much into negotiations as they have into their media campaign, they may already have an agreement. That it is in the interests of everybody, including the company, that they negotiate and that they use the Fair Work Commission to help them with that conciliation.
But the concept that where every other business in Australia is expected to negotiate with their workforce but this business wants to rely on ministerial intervention is not a view that impresses me … I expect them to do the same as every other business in Australia.
I think … their presumption that they would find a political answer, rather than do what every other business in Australia is expected to do, was misguided. And I’ve made that clear to them.
In terms of their workforce, the Maritime Union went through the differences between pay rates. The company would say that you can never get a complete parallel because the systems are different. But to reach an agreement – everybody needs to give a bit. That’s how you get to agreements.
And I have had a number of times, which haven’t been as public as this one, where companies have made very similar pleas to me in terms of their frustration – would they be able to reach an agreement or not? They’ve used the professionalism of the Fair Work Commission, and they’ve got there. And I have no doubt that that is possible and available for them now.
Catie McLeod
Planning minister blames workforce shortages and cost of materials as NSW set to miss housing target
The New South Wales planning minister, Paul Scully, says workforce shortages and the cost of building materials is hampering the state’s ability to build enough new houses and apartments.
Scully held a press conference this afternoon to talk up the government’s previously announced housing reforms after the premier, Chris Minns, admitted in an interview with the Daily Telegraph that the state would fall short of its goal to build 75,000 new homes this year.
Under the national housing accord between the states and the federal government, NSW has committed to delivering 377,000 new homes by 2029.
Scully refused to put a deadline on when the state would be building 75,000 homes a year, which he said was an “arithmetic target”. He said:
What we’ve got to do is make sure that we’re gearing up the machine and make sure there’s a pipeline of builds coming through the system; well located, well designed, well built homes, close to to transport – and that’s the work of the NSW government.
We … are determined and we will work towards along with the rest of the industry and along with the rest of NSW to deliver on that housing accord target.
Update on drowning at Tallows beach in Byron Bay
Earlier this morning, we reported there had been a drowning at Tallows beach in Byron Bay, bringing the New South Wales coastal drowning toll for summer to 11.
NSW police said emergency services were called to the beach just after 7am following reports a man was unresponsive in the water.
Initial reports indicated it was a woman involved in the incident, but police have confirmed it was a man.
The man is yet to be formally identified, but is believed to be aged in his 20s.
Officers have commenced an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the incident, and a report is being prepared for the coroner.
BoM predicts high chance of tropical cyclone next week near Queensland
The Bureau of Meteorology says there is a high (more than 50%) chance of a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea from Monday, which would be known as Kirrily.
In its latest update, it says the tropical low will initially be slow moving before moving south from Sunday to Tuesday. After this, its movement becomes uncertain but is likely to come towards the Queensland coast.
As reported earlier, the BoM says a “severe impact” with the coast is possible.
Jim Chalmers on job figures
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has reacted to the December job figures released just earlier.
He wrote on X:
Today’s new jobs numbers showed the unemployment rate was steady at 3.9%, but also make it clear we’re now seeing the consequences of higher interest rates and global uncertainty which are combining to slow our economy in expected ways.
Today’s new jobs numbers showed the unemployment rate was steady at 3.9 per cent, but also make it clear we’re now seeing the consequences of higher interest rates and global uncertainty which are combining to slow our economy in expected ways #auspol #ausecon
— Jim Chalmers MP (@JEChalmers) January 18, 2024
You can read more about the figures here on the blog from Peter Hannam, or read the full story here.
Full-time jobs ‘collapse’ the most since height of the Covid pandemic
Peter Hannam
That steady 3.9% jobless rate for December masked quite a bit going on. As noted, the economy shed 106,600 full-time roles in the month, which Bloomberg notes was the largest drop since May 2020 when Covid was flaring.
Ben Udy, lead economist for Oxford Economics Australia, described the shift as a “collapse” – although there remain about 9.8m people in full-time jobs so that might be a strong descriptor. He is on the mark with his point that “the softening in the labour market is now undoubtedly well under way”.
The ABS‘s labour specialist, David Taylor, noted the tally of hours worked had been dropping through the second half of last year. Hours worked last month were back to levels of last February, he said.
Across the states, NSW continued to have the lowest jobless rate at 3.4%, unchanged from November. Victoria’s rate was also unchanged at 4% while Queensland’s improved to 4.3% from 4.4%. The ACT and WA were two regions to see the rate tick higher, coming in at 3.9% for both.
There’s no doubt of a few big shifts in the jobs figures even if the overall unemployment rate was steady. It remains to be seen what revisions the ABS has to make because of the floods and storms, mostly in Queensland, that might have affected data for last month.
For now the ABS reckons the survey data from Queensland is “fit for publication without any need for imputation”. However, it is open to undertaking “additional analysis of the collected data to ensure the quality of final estimates”.
Let’s see if we’re not publishing a few sizeable revisions in a month’s time.
Severe storm warnings issued for parts of Queensland
Just as a severe storm warning was issued for northern NSW, severe storms are also forecast for southern inland Queensland today.
The Bureau of Meteorology said heavy rainfall is the main risk, with locally intense rainfall possible on the Darling Downs.
Severe storms are also possible in south east, western and far north Queensland.
QLD Storm Forecast for Thu 18/1. Severe storms likely in southern inland QLD today and possible in SEQ, heavy rainfall the main risk, locally intense rain possible on the Darling Downs. Severe thunderstorms with heavy rain also possible in western QLD & FNQ. pic.twitter.com/3wWCNwwWH6
— Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland (@BOM_Qld) January 17, 2024