Poilievre seen by most voters as the best PM and to handle Trump

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Trying to tie Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to Donald Trump may not be the trump card the Trudeau Liberals think it is. For months, the Liberals have been trying to hurt Poilievre’s support among voters by connecting him to the presumptive Republican candidate.

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A new poll from Abacus Data shows that about 40% of voters believe that Poilievre and Trump are similar, while roughly 33% find them different, with the rest saying they don’t know.

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More importantly, though, is that more Canadians believe that Poilievre is the best option to deal with Trump if he wins the White House for a second time in November.

When asked, “If Donald Trump is the next US President, would it be better for Canada if Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre were Prime Minister?” a full 44% chose Poilievre, compared to just 29% picking Trudeau. That includes 17% of current Liberal voters believing Poilievre would be the better choice and 23% of current NDP voters.

Abacus Data CEO David Coletto says the strategy of linking Poilievre and Trump could work for the Liberals, but they have their own problems.

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“It may also be moot so long as people dislike Mr. Trudeau as much as they do and the desire for change is as strong as it is,” Coletto said.

In fact, when asked to rate four politicians on a scale of one to 10 with one indicating a strong dislike, Donald Trump scored the lowest among Canadians at 3, Justin Trudeau was next at 3.6, Joe Biden was at 4.9 and Pierre Poilievre was at 5.1. That means, Canadians dislike Trudeau almost as much as they dislike Trump, which is not a good sign for the Liberal government.

“The public wants change, is cranky and anxious, and is looking for an alternative to Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals,” Coletto said.

His survey of voter support found that 54% of Canadians believe Poilievre would make the best prime minister, including 21% of those who voted Liberal in 2021 and 37% of those who voted NDP. By comparison, just 46% chose Trudeau as the best PM in a head to head match-up.

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Nationally, Abacus has the Conservatives up 15 points over the Liberals — 40% support to 25% — with the NDP in third place at 20%. More importantly, the Conservative hold a commanding lead in every province across the country other than Quebec, where they are performing well enough to hold the 10 seats they currently hold.

These numbers do not bode well for the Trudeau Liberals and as a fascinating column by John Ibbitson in the Globe and Mail showed recently, things are about to get worse. If an election isn’t called by April 22, the number of seats up for grabs in the next election will rise from 338 to 343.

The redistribution based on the population of the 2021 census – already out of date – means that Alberta would get three new seats, while Ontario and British Columbia would each get an additional seat. In Ontario, Toronto and Northern Ontario each lose a seat, with the 905 suburban area around Toronto getting the new seat and the two others being shifted.

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Four of the five seats are going to be difficult for the Liberals to win, with the fifth new seat being a toss-up with the Conservatives.

It’s clear that the Trudeau Liberals want to campaign against Donald Trump if they can. If the constant push on that front yields results for them, an election called on April 21 would put voting day in late May or early June, just as the American campaign is solidifying.

That’s how desperate the Trudeau Liberals are, campaigning against a politician in another country, watching the calendar to see which dates work for them, and praying Canadians are dumb enough to believe their spin.

At this point, my money is still on Canadians being fed up with Trudeau.

Conducted Jan. 18-23, the Abacus Data poll of 2,199 Canadian adults — using a random sample of online panellists —  is considered accurate within 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

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