How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Saturday, 3/2/24
Tip-Off Time: 1:00 pm PT
TV: CBS
Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR
Location: Seattle, Washington
Betting Line: Washington Huskies -7
USC Trojans 2023-24 Statistics:
Record: 11-17 (6-14)
Points For per Game: 74.1 ppg (134th)
Points Against per Game: 74.8 ppg (244th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 110.1 (112th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (99th)
Strength of Schedule: 33rd
USC Key Players:
G- Isaiah Collier, Fr. 6’5, 210: 16.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.2 apg, 48.0% FG, 30.8% 3pt, 66.9% FT
Collier was thought to potentially be the top pick in the upcoming draft when he enrolled at USC but has played his way out of that spot. He’s got size, athleticism, and can pass which means he’s top-3 in the Pac-12 in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, steal rate, and assist rate. But he’s averaging over 3 turnovers per game and shooting barely over 30% from the 3-point line which just isn’t efficient enough to warrant how frequently he shoots the ball. USC is just 2-4 this year when he scores 20+ points.
G- Boogie Ellis, Sr. 6’3, 190: 16.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.2 apg, 42.5% FG, 40.7% 3pt, 71.4% FT
Ellis plateaued as a player but he did so as an all-conference level shooter which is certainly pretty good. He has struggled from the FT line in Pac-12 play but is still at a career high 41% on 3’s while tying Collier for the lead in % of team’s shots taken. Husky fans likely remember when he eviscerated UW in Seattle last year with 27 points on 19 shots.
G- Kobe Johnson, Jr. 6’6, 200: 10.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.2 apg, 38.8% FG, 29.0% 3pt, 70.6% FT
Johnson entered the season with potential Pac-12 DPOY expectations and hasn’t quite lived up to the billing. His shooting percentages are down across the board with increased usage rate on offense and his steal numbers are also down a little from last year. He has the quickness and length to chase Moses Wood around screens all night and give him problems.
F- DJ Rodman, Sr. 6’6, 225: 7.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 41.5% FG, 38.2% 3pt, 70.8% FT
The former Wazzu starter transferred to L.A to be the glue piece for the Trojans and it hasn’t really worked out. That’s not exactly Rodman’s fault whose advanced stats are eerily almost identical across the board to last season but his playing time has dropped off on a more packed roster. He has the size and physicality to match up with Keion Brooks on defense and has shot at least 38% from deep in 3 of the last 4 seasons.
C- Joshua Morgan, Sr. 6’11, 225: 5.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.4 bpg, 57.4% FG, 55.8% FT
The Trojans have been running out a two-headed center monster of Morgan and sophomore Vince Iwuchukwu. Morgan still starts but has been losing ground in minutes over the last few games. The former Long Beach State transfer is 2nd in the country in block rate but unsurprisingly therefore commits 6 fouls per 40 minutes which limits his ability to stay in games. Morgan will jump at every pump fake so UW needs to be patient going to the rim. He really doesn’t like having to shoot the ball on offense and is a terrible rebounder for someone with his size and athleticism.
The Outlook
Sometimes the Pac-12 schedule just ends up funky. Washington only plays preseason conference favorite USC one time this year and it gets scheduled for the 2nd to last game of the season. It’s incredibly rare for the Huskies to be playing a team in the regular season for the first time once the calendar has already flipped to March.
Back in the preseason it looked like UW’s schedule set up extremely favorably missing both USC and Arizona as part of the rotation. Arizona, yes. USC, no. The Trojans have been one of the biggest underperformers in the country going 11-17 so far with top-15 expectations and Final 4 upside.
Injuries have been a big part of it. Freshman Isaiah Collier, the top ranked recruit in the country, and 5th year all-conference star Boogie Ellis were supposed to form potentially the best backcourt in the country. They’ve been good, combining for 32.8 points and 7.4 assists per game but haven’t lived up to expectations still. Each also has missed games due to injury. USC is 0-3 in games that both were out and 1-3 when only one was missing. A 10-11 record when your key pieces are healthy still isn’t great but it’s more representative of who they are right now.
Since Collier came back from injury the Trojans are just 2-4 but that includes an OT loss at Cal, a 2OT loss at home vs. Colorado, and a 3-point road loss at Washington State. That 4th loss was a 30-point demolishing at Stanford but the point remains that USC has been very competitive in most of their games over the past 2 weeks.
The key for USC is their defense. The Trojans haven’t won a game in which they gave up 65+ points since January 6th. They’ve come, close as noted above, but ultimately they just haven’t been able to win games unless their defense plays great and/or the opponent just misses shots. USC is 7-2 when they hold opponents under 65 points and 5-17 when they don’t.
Most teams have chosen to attack USC by knocking down jump shots. Josh Morgan is one of the absolute best shot blockers in the country. His backup isn’t a great rim protector but is still 7’1 and long. USC as a team ranks 7th in the country in average height. It’s not a surprise that the Trojans are very good at preventing both shots from going up in the paint or from them going in at a high rate. They rank just outside the top-50 nationally in both categories.
The problem is that opponents have torched USC in other areas. USC allows the other team to shoot 36.6% from deep which is 334th in the country. Opponents also make 74% of their foul shots which is psuedo-random but suggests they are especially foul prone against opposing guards. They also just can’t get a defensive rebound to save their lives and are 326th in that regard. So teams get plenty of second chances and knock down a lot of 3’s. Hopefully UW didn’t use up all their good shooting on Thursday night against UCLA because there will be a lot of attempts on Saturday.
On offense the Trojans move the ball well and rank top-25 in the percentage of their baskets that come off assists. That’s somewhat surprising since they have two guards who can create for themselves easily but both are reasonably unselfish. Otherwise this is just about the most bland offense you can picture. They rank between 125th and 225th nationally in almost every relevant category.
Isaiah Collier gets to the free throw line a ton but no one else does. Boogie Ellis is a sniper from 3-point range but almost no one else is. Backup center Vincent Iwuchukwu gets offensive rebounds but no one else does. There is just seemingly one player to worry about in every category so if the Huskies can simply focus on the small things then they can have success defensively. Just stay close to Ellis. Just worry about drives from Collier. Just block out Iwuchukwu…
This Husky team though has been so inconsistent that they always seem to zig when I think they’ll zag. You would think that the momentum of an amazing game on Thursday night might propel them to a strong finish on senior day. But it is just as likely that they regress to the mean so hard it carries them the other way and they shoot 20% from deep in an 8-point loss. Given both teams though it seems safest to predict a close game. Fortunately for the Huskies, USC is one of the only teams out there that have been worse in those situations than Washington.
Prediction
My record this year: 19-10 Straight Up, 11-17-1 Against the Spread
Washington Huskies– 79, USC Trojans- 77