Tornado risk increased for Michigan, models show robust storms Tuesday afternoon

A line of thunderstorms should move through Michigan on Tuesday. The latest severe weather forecast actually significantly increased the chance of severe thunderstorms. Part of southern Michigan has been placed in an area of all types of severe weather.

This line of storms is an offshoot of what looks like a dangerous tornado outbreak today in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. Our line of thunderstorms isn’t expected to be anywhere as strong as the Plains states’ severe weather outbreak, but could produce severe thunderstorms.

The best high resolution thunderstorm forecasting computer model does show several strong to severe thunderstorms in the arc of thunderstorms expected to move through Lower Michigan Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has increased the chance of all types of severe weather for about the southern third of Lower Michigan. The newest overall severe weather forecast now shows Lansing, Ann Arbor, Kalamazoo and southward in a level two of five levels threat for severe weather.

A big increase in the tornado risk has been shifted north to Ann Arbor, Lansing and Jackson for Tuesday afternoon or early evening. The chance of a tornado is now pegged at up to 9% for the brown-shaded area of southern Michigan. If you are traveling south Tuesday, be aware that strong tornadoes are possible in states just south of Michigan.

The same area that has the highest chance of a tornado also has the chance for scattered damaging wind gusts and large hail.

You’ll notice the southern Michigan border has a chance of 2-inch diameter hail which is damaging hail.

The thunderstorms look like they will come through southern Michigan at the peak heating of the afternoon. This can give the storms strength to be severe. Southern Michigan could have a couple of hours of severe storms Tuesday afternoon. We will keep you updated here.