WNBA Best Bets:
We are off and running in July, with best bets on a 14-3-2 run after yesterday’s 4-2-2 profitable day. With just one Thursday game, I’m going to give you Thursday’s and Friday’s game projections so we can bet some early lines and try to keep the momentum rolling. Yesterday, I wrote about WNBA Rookie of the Year and Championship odds and potential bets, so be sure to check that out as well.
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Here are projections for Thursday and Friday:
THURSDAY
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky
Both teams are on a back-to-back, which is weird and seems unnecessary, but something that should be considered when evaluating this game. The Liberty are 11-point favorites with an Over/Under of 165.5. TSI projects New York -12 with a total of 163.5, so coupling that with the fact these teams are on a back-to-back, I really like this Under.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 165.5 (Play to 164.5)
FRIDAY
Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix has been playing lights out, while the Fever are coming off a loss to the Mystics in which they were down nearly 20 for large stretches of the second half before storming back and losing by 5. I wonder how much that failed comeback took out of them physically. Phoenix is a 2.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 172, while TSI projects Phoenix -3 with a total of 172.5. Not much value to be had here.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away at current numbers
Atlanta Dream vs. Las Vegas Aces
The Aces are rolling right now, while the Dream saw a winnable opportunity against the Sky slip away on Wednesday and remain one of the league’s more inconsistent and injury-bitten teams. The Aces are 13.5-point favorites with an Over/Under of 166.5. TSI projects Aces -13.5 with a total of 165. There’s not enough value here for me to make a play, and my supporting formulas are all pretty tight with the lines also. Pass for me.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away at current numbers
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx
The Lynx didn’t miss a beat without star Napheesa Collier against the Sparks the other night, and the Storm are coming off a tough loss to the Aces, which they led for large stretches of the game. I am curious how Minnesota may look against a top-five team if Collier is out again with a foot injury. The Storm are 3-point favorites, which tells me oddsmakers don’t expect Collier in the lineup, with an Over/Under of 153.5. TSI projects the Storm -4.5 over a Collier-less Lynx team, but would only make it Storm -0.5 with Collier in the lineup, with a projected total of 152.5. I’m going to monitor the market. If Collier gets announced in the lineup, I’ll try to snag a +3 with the Lynx and get a potential middle with the Storm at nearly a pick ‘em.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away currently. Look for a market shift with Collier news
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