Anticipating a Weak Quarter for YES Bank in Q1: Underlying Business Impact likely to Result in Up to 9% Decrease in PAT

Private lender YES Bank is expected to report weak numbers for Q1 ended June, reflecting slow business growth. Although net interest income (NII) is projected to grow by around 6% YoY to Rs 1,968 crore, it is likely to decline sequentially due to weak loan growth.

Kotak Institutional Equities estimates a 6% YoY rise in NII to Rs 1,968 crore, while net profit is expected to fall 4% YoY to Rs 298 crore. YES Bank reported an 8% YoY increase in loans to Rs 2 lakh crore for Q1, but the figure only grew 0.1% sequentially. Advances growth, excluding ARC transactions, saw a 10% YoY and 0.1% QoQ rise.

In the previous quarter (March), net profit dropped 45% to Rs 202 crore due to increased provisions. NIMs for the current quarter are estimated to be 2.8%, a 30 bps decline QoQ, but analysts expect volatility due to the nature of income booked when security receipts mature.

Expectations from YES Bank’s Q1:
– Kotak Institutional Equities: Business momentum is gaining traction in retail and MSME segments, but overall loan growth will be lower than industry average at 8% YoY. Deposit growth at 13% YoY is meeting business requirements. Recovery and upgrades are expected.
– Nuvama: Muted numbers are expected with weak loan and fee growth and a decline in sequential NII based on the soft business update.
– ICICI Securities: The brokerage estimates a 12% YoY growth in NII to Rs 2,074 crore, with a 1.5% sequential drop. Profit growth is expected to decline 9% YoY to Rs 282 crore.

(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own and do not represent those of Economic Times)

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