Arizona on top; Colorado, USC, Utah fight for March

The Pac-12’s postseason fate won’t be sealed for three months, but decades of data allow us to sketch a gloomy outlook.

A clear correlation exists between the Pac-12’s performance in non-conference games and the number of NCAA Tournament bids secured on Selection Sunday.

Only six times this century has the Pac-12 received fewer than four NCAA bids; each time, it won less than 70 percent of its non-conference games.

Meanwhile, the Pac-12 has received at least five NCAA bids on 10 occasions; in nine of those instances, it won at least 70 percent of the non-conference games.

The current win rate? A paltry 66 percent.

So start preparing for a modest bid total on Selection Sunday, regardless of the specific order of finish in the conference race.

To the projections …

(NET rankings through Friday)

1. Arizona (9-1)

NET ranking: No. 2
Coach: Tommy Lloyd (third season)
Top scorer: G Caleb Love (15.5 ppg)
Comment: The results to date — both in Tucson and across the conference — suggest the Wildcats will finish three or four games clear of the pack and head to the (final) Pac-12 tournament as the heavy favorite. That said, Arizona’s season will be judged on the length of its run in the NCAA Tournament as the 2023 first-round flameout against Princeton looms over the program. We believe the roster is better constructed for March success than Lloyd’s previous versions, which had neither the athleticism nor toughness required to survive and advance deep into the tournament.

2. Colorado (9-2)

NET ranking: No. 34
Coach: Tad Boyle (14th season)
Top scorer: KJ Simpson (19.9 ppg)
Comment: If this isn’t Boyle’s best team in Boulder, it’s surely on the short list. With Simpson running the show, the Buffaloes have depth, size, athleticism and perimeter marksmanship — everything needed to win the race for second place in the conference and qualify for the NCAAs for just the second time since 2016. CU has played well to date and should get better through the middle third of the season as the assembled parts (returnees, freshmen and transfers) coalesce.

3. USC (6-5)

NET ranking: No. 80
Coach: Andy Enfield (11th season)
Top scorer: G Boogie Ellis (19.5 ppg)
Comment: Our outlook for the Trojans isn’t supported by the reality of their performance thus far, which includes losses to UC Irvine and Long Beach State. But Enfield’s team is stocked with talent, particularly on the perimeter with Ellis, an all-conference selection last season, and freshman Isaiah Collier, a projected lottery pick. Freshman guard Bronny James, now healthy after suffering cardiac arrest, adds a playmaking option. But USC’s success depends largely on the degree of progress up front.

4. Utah (9-2)

NET ranking: No. 24
Coach: Craig Smith (third season)
Top scorer: F Branden Carlson (16.8 ppg)
Comment: The Utes are one of the most improved teams in the conference and have a marquee win (over Brigham Young) on their resume. Smith’s teams typically play stout defense; the difference is on the other end: Last season, they  were 127th nationally in offensive efficiency, according to the Pomeroy ratings. This season, they’re 27th. If guards Gabe Madsen and Rollie Worster maintain their current level of play to complement Carlson’s work up front, Utah should finish in the top half and contend for the NCAAs.

5. Washington (8-3)

NET ranking: No. 60
Coach: Mike Hopkins (seventh season)
Top scorer: F Keion Brooks Jr. (20.1 ppg)
Comment: The Huskies stand with Utah as the two most improved teams in the conference and have a victory over Gonzaga to support that solid NET ranking. With his job possibly on the line, Hopkins finally has an offense that executes with a respectable level of efficiency. For that, he can thank two Kentucky transfers: Brooks, who arrived in 2022, and guard Sahvir Wheeler, who joined UW last spring and is averaging 7.1 assists.

6. UCLA (5-6)

NET ranking: No. 175
Coach: Mick Cronin (fifth season)
Top scorer: G Senastian Mack (15.2 ppg)
Comment: The Bruins don’t look like a team that could win the Big West, much less contend for the Pac-12 title: They have dropped four in a row, their longest losing streak since Dec. 2018. So our assessment is based on a leap of faith that Cronin’s inexperienced roster will make major strides. Mack and big man Adem Bona form an ultra-talented duo but lack consistency. (In that regard, they aren’t alone.) The Bruins need to play to Cronin’s standard on both ends of the court — and do it quickly — or the NCAAs will be out of reach by the middle of January.

7. Oregon (8-3)

NET ranking: No. 71
Coach: Dana Altman (14th season)
Top scorer: G Jermaine Couisnard
Comment: Meet the most difficult team to project. If their health were sound and chemistry right, the Ducks would be plenty capable of finishing on the top tier and sneaking into the NCAAs. But much has gone awry with Altman’s program in recent years. Case in point: Both big men, N’Faly Dante and Nate Bittle, are currently injured, allowing opponents to focus their energies on containing an Oregon backcourt that has talent but lacks star power.

8. Washington State (9-2)

NET ranking: No. 45
Coach: Kyle Smith (fifth season)
Top scorer: F Isaac Jones (15.6 ppg)
Comment: Our outlook for the Cougars doesn’t square with their record, and for good reason: They have played one of the worst schedules in the country. That’s no exaggeration. WSU’s strength of schedule is No. 323 of the 362 teams in Division I, according to the Pomeroy efficiency rankings. We’ll know soon whether the doubt is warranted, as the Cougars open league play at Utah and Colorado. They do have one of the best stories in the conference, with freshman Myles Rice averaging 15.5 points one year after being treated for Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

9. Arizona State (6-5)

NET ranking: No. 149
Coach: Bobby Hurley (ninth season)
Top scorer: G Frankie Collins (12.5 ppg)
Comment: The Sun Devils enter conference play on a three-game losing streak and with nearly as many losses as victories overall. The record is slightly deceiving in that four defeats are to Power Six opponents, but Hurley’s transfer-heavy roster has struggled to score (29 percent from 3-point range). We’re skeptical of that changing against Pac-12 foes. Instead, ASU will have to grind its way through each and every game. (Note: Transfer guard Adam Miller is averaging a team-high 13 ppg but has only played in two games since becoming eligible.)