Brock Purdy’s ‘downfall’ depends on how many hospital balls he throws

In his weekly Football Morning in America column, NBC’s Peter King spoke for all 49ers fans when he asked a simple question: Why is everyone praying for Brock Purdy’s downfall?

Ever since Purdy rose to national prominence last season, a chorus of dissenters has been waiting for his fairy tale story to turn back into a pumpkin. But the quarterback maintains a perfect regular-season record, and this year, he is off to a 3-0 start with San Francisco, which seems to drive the haters mad.

“I think, as I said on Mike Florio’s ‘PFT’ show Friday, that it seems there’s a bunch of people who don’t buy Brock Purdy and who await his failure,” King wrote in the article published Monday. “You’ll be waiting for a while. Why can’t people accept the fact that Purdy — who has played more than three quarters in 11 NFL games, and is 11-0 in those games — should not be defined by the fact that he was the last pick in the 2022 draft?”

King added, “What I am saying is, where’s the evidence he’s going to fall to earth?”

There is a realistic answer to King’s question, and ironically, he himself laid it out in the same column. Right before getting to Purdy, King commented on Deebo Samuel’s “physical style,” noting, “I doubt he makes it through 17 games playing that way.”

It’s legitimate to argue that Purdy’s success is tied to the incredible skill position players around him. Samuel is part of a high-powered core that also includes Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, a group that turns the Niners’ offense into a pick-your-poison conundrum for opposing defenses. If Samuel were to be injured, or even bruised, it would likely make things more difficult for Purdy because he’d be losing a key offensive target.

But while King seems to put the onus on Samuel to dial things down, it’s Purdy who needs to make the adjustment to protect his wideout. Specifically, Purdy needs to get out of the Garoppolo-like habit of throwing near-hospital passes — throws that put receivers in imminent danger of getting hit hard — to Samuel.

This tendency was on full display Thursday in the Niners’ 30-12 win against the Giants. On the second play of the game, Purdy dropped back and threw the ball to Samuel, who was cutting across the middle of the field. The pass was just behind Samuel, but he would have been flattened by middle linebacker Bobby Okereke if he had caught the ball. A couple of plays later, Purdy threw again to Samuel, right as Adoree’ Jackson was charging with reckless abandon toward the unsuspecting wideout. Once again, Purdy missed his mark, but it’s good that he did because Samuel would’ve likely been rocked if he had caught the ball.

That was just in the first quarter alone. At 11:40 in the second quarter, the Niners ran a bubble screen meant for Samuel. The Giants linebackers recognized the play and cut toward the outside, right as Purdy’s throw forced Samuel to run right toward the oncoming cadre of defenders.

It is worth noting that Purdy faced heavy pressure all night, which surely rushed a few throws. But it does give other teams a blueprint of what to do against the Niners. Heavy pressure might not result in hits on Purdy — which the Giants still got plenty of — but it could at least endanger the extremely valuable offensive weapons that surround him.

After Thursday’s game, Purdy acknowledged that he did botch some passes.

“There’s some throws out there that I missed that could’ve obviously helped us get the lead earlier, quicker and faster,” Purdy said. “Those are the things that sort of are in my mouth, that I have a bad taste from, that I want to be better at. So watch the film, keep getting better, and we just want to keep winning.”

However, if defenses adjust to Purdy faster than the quarterback adjusts to the film, then his fall down to Earth may actually just be one poorly placed throw away. Just because some annoying people online make an argument doesn’t mean it’s any less true.