Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday touted numbers showing that one in four new cars sold in California in the second quarter were zero-emission vehicles, or ZEVs. But questions remain about whether the trendlines are flattening.
“We want to dominate in this space,” Newsom said in a conference call with reporters. “We think this is one of the most significant economic opportunities in our lifetime, to move forward in the context of changing the way we produce and consume energy.”
Between April and June, ZEVs accounted for 25.7 percent of all new cars and trucks purchased in the Golden State, according to the California Energy Commission. That’s the second-highest market share recorded for one particular quarter — surpassed only by 26.8 percent in the third quarter of last year.
Under definitions set by state policymakers, battery-electric, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are counted as zero-emission vehicles.
“Today’s numbers demonstrate that consumers in our state are continuing to step up to be part of the solution for climate change and clean air,” Liane Randolph, chair of the California Air Resources Board said during the call. “The market absolutely continues to point towards the zero-emission future.”
But some auto analysts are not as upbeat, especially considering that four years ago Newsom issued an executive order mandating the elimination of all new sales of gasoline-powered passenger vehicles in California by 2035.
That means the rate of ZEV adoption has to keep multiplying.
“But we’re seeing that there is a slowdown,” said Ivan Drury, director of auto insights for Edmunds.com.
On the positive side, the number of ZEV registrations in California in the second quarter increased by almost 10,000 compared to the first three months of the year.
But vehicle sales are usually lower in the first quarter because many potential customers delay purchasing a new car or truck after running up bills during the holiday season. In addition, consumers often pay their income taxes in the early months of the new year, which does not leave much money to spend on big-ticket items.
By looking at the second-quarter sales figures compared to last year, one sees that slightly fewer ZEVs were bought or leased between April and June in 2024 than during the same period in 2023 (118,181 this year compared to 118,776 last year).
“For (the numbers) to go flat, that’s not confidence-inspiring,” Drury said.
The second-quarter figures from the California Energy Commission roughly track with data released two weeks ago by the California New Car Dealers Association that showed stagnant sales of ZEVs, as well as gasoline-powered cars and trucks.
According to Edmunds.com, the average all-electric vehicle in the U.S. is taking 65 days to sell. The average plug-in hybrid is on the lot for 56 days and the average gasoline-powered vehicle takes a dealer 47 days to sell.
Given high interest rates, shaky economic and stock market conditions plus anxiety over a looming presidential election, Drury suspects customers are holding off on buying new cars. “If you’re on the fence at all, it’s almost like the best decision is making no decision right now,” he said.
David Hochschild, chair of the energy commission, remains confident the 2035 goal will be met.
“There is sort of a stair-step dynamic with a lot of these market transformations,” he said during the call. “We’ve seen this, by the way, in other technologies — solar and wind.”
Hochschild pointed to predictions that the cost of batteries in ZEVs will decline over time, making them more attractive to consumers. “It’s really important not to mistake the forest for the trees,” he said.
While California’s all-ZEV mandate for new vehicles is scheduled to go into effect in 2035, the first of a series of state-imposed targets will roll out in just two years.
Under standards passed by the Air Resources Board, at least 35 percent of model year 2026 passenger cars and trucks sold in the state must be electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The numbers ramp up each year, going to 68 percent in 2030 and 100 percent by 2035.
Hybrid vehicles without plug-ins do not count under the state’s mandate.
California has racked up 1.9 million ZEV registrations, which is the highest number of any state, and 60 ZEV and ZEV-related manufacturers operate in the Golden State.
“Sixty ZEV manufacturers are a proof point of the innovation and the entrepreneurial spirit that is also behind these efforts,” Newsom said.
Zero-emission vehicle sales in California
Combined total of EVs, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, by quarter
Q1 2023 101,826
Q2 2023 118,776
Q3 2023 118,513
Q4 2023 102,168
Q1 2024 108,828
Q2 2024 118,181
Source: California Energy Commission
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