Caveats for growth accompany Japan’s surprising trade surplus

Japan’s balance of trade for June unexpectedly swung to its first surplus since July 2021, an outcome that should help ease pressure on the economy’s recovery, though risks remain for the growth outlook.

The trade surplus came to ¥43 billion ($308 million), the Finance Ministry said Thursday. Analysts had forecast a ¥46.7 billion deficit. The value of exports rose 1.5%, led by shipments of cars and construction machinery. Imports slipped 12.9%, dragged down by sharp drops in the value of fuel shipments into Japan.

The report carries mixed messages for the economy. On one hand the surplus is a positive sign for Japanese businesses as they continue to recover from the impact of the COVID pandemic. Confidence among the nation’s firms improved across the board in the Bank of Japan’s latest quarterly tankan report released earlier this month, supporting the central bank’s view that the nation’s economy is gradually recovering.

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