CMIE consumer pyramid household survey hints at ongoing V-shaped recovery based on jobs numbers

0 4

The consumer pyramid household survey indicates that a V-shaped recovery is underway once again after the second wave of Covid-19 that struck India in April with faster recovery in employment rate and labour participation, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said.

Data from CMIE shows that the 30-day moving average employment rate was 37.3% as of July 25 as against 35.9% in June, 35.3% in May or 36.8% in April 2021.

“The 30-day moving average of the employment rate gives reasons to believe that this is a better recovery than from the first wave,” CMIE said in its weekly analysis.

“The July 2021 employment rate could end close to the March 2021 rate of 37.6%. This is promising,” it added. The employment rate had dropped to 36.8% in April 2021 and then further to 35.3%in May when the number of Covid cases were on the rise.

CMIE data shows that the four weeks from May 10 through June 6 were the worst hit by the second wave when the employment rate averaged at 34.5%.

“The recovery since that trough has been quick. Half of the recovery was achieved in the first week of the process. This was the week ended June 13 when the employment rate sprung back to 36.3 per cent. The remaining recovery came relatively gradually during July,” it said.

According to CMIE, optimism further stems from the rising labour participation rate (LPR). The LPR rose to 41.1% in the week ended July 25 compared to 40.4% in the previous week or 40% and lower in each of the preceding three months.

“The steady rise of the LPR through most of July implies a greater demand for jobs. And, most of this demand is being met as evident from the increase in the employment rate during the week,” it said.

“The simultaneous increase in the LPR and the employment rate is what makes July 2021 promising,” CMIE added.

CMIE, however, cautioned that though the recovery from the fall of the second wave appears to be more complete than the experience of the first wave, but “we must wait to confirm this from more data from larger samples than just weekly samples to test the sustainability of the recovery,”.

Read original article here

Denial of responsibility! Swift Telecast is an automatic aggregator of the all world’s media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, all materials to their authors. If you are the owner of the content and do not want us to publish your materials, please contact us by email – [email protected]. The content will be deleted within 24 hours.

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.