The NHS waiting list will reach 8 million by winter if the doctors’ strikes are not resolved, according to experts.
On Thursday (12th July), junior doctors began their longest-ever strike action – five consecutive days.
This will be followed by the first walk-out by consultants in over a decade, lasting two consecutive days starting on 20 July.
The strikes, which are over pay, come as a new analysis shows that up to 1 in 4 patients categorized as emergencies are waiting over 12 hours to be admitted to the hospital after a decision is made – a potentially life-threatening delay.
The longest waiting times were in Gloucester, where 28 percent of patients waited over 12 hours to be admitted following an emergency decision to admit.
NHS Lincolnshire – 16 percent – and Northamptonshire – 15 percent. The figures, the latest available, relate to May and were analyzed by the law firm Patient line.
These figures follow NHS performance data published last week (Thursday) showing a record-high waiting list of 7.47 million. Consecutive NHS strikes since last year have led to the cancellation of 600,000 hospital appointments.
In some areas, ambulance crews are waiting outside hospitals for so long that volunteers are being asked to provide them with refreshments.
The Royal Voluntary Service has issued an appeal for a new pilot scheme it is running alongside the NHS.
Trialed in Norwich, this scheme will see volunteers working shifts at A&E to support ambulance crews with tea, coffee, and food as they wait for their patients to be admitted.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has announced a ‘final’ pay increase of six percent along with a lump sum payment.
However, while this move has been welcomed by some, BMA members have stated that they will use it to continue with strikes.
One doctor posted on Reddit: “We can effectively have 28 strike day pay deductions and still not take home a penny less than we would have otherwise.”
An analysis by experts at Oxford University predicts that the numbers on the waiting list will continue to rise unless urgent action is taken.
Writing on their substack, Trust the Evidence, the researchers predict: “With the current strikes, and if the current trend isn’t reversed, then it’ll be 8 million by winter.”
The experts report that 482 patients have been waiting for over two years for care, while the number waiting over a year is 385,022.
Professor Carl Heneghan, Director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University and co-author of the research, said: “The junior doctors and consultant strikes will only worsen the situation by leading to more cancellations.
“The waiting list problem appears to be out of control. Winter is approaching and waiting lists are increasing. These long waits can be fatal and are stressful for patients. The vaccine task force showed us how to focus on a problem and address it. This is what we need.”
A survey of health leaders by NHS Providers, which represents trusts, has revealed that one-third of hospital chiefs are not confident that they will meet the government’s target to eliminate the number of patients waiting over a year for care by March 2025.
Last week, NHS Medical Director Dr Stephen Powis warned that tens of thousands of patient appointments and operations will be canceled each day due to the strikes.
Commenting at the start of the junior doctors’ strike, he said: “We will now see industrial action on 11 out of the next 14 days, so we are entering an incredibly busy, disruptive period for the NHS.
“While staff continue to work hard to provide patients with the care they need, the next strike is the longest and most disruptive yet – strikes have already impacted around 600,000 hospital appointments across the NHS, with tens of thousands more set to be affected in the coming weeks.
“…we cannot continue like this – the action is having a major impact on patients in need of routine care and is increasingly affecting NHS services and our hard-working staff as they try to maintain services and address a record backlog.”