The Edmonton Oilers won a massive game on Saturday night.
One of the keys to Edmonton’s attack was an entire line of veterans who will be unrestricted free agents this summer.
Each man is earning a handsome contract on the free-agent market by playing so well. For the Oilers, it’s worth contemplating contracts for all three before July 1 and free agency.
Here are their stories.
Each year for the last two summers, Mattias Janmark has signed a deal for around the minimum for the opportunity to play for the Oilers. The veteran two-way winger goes about his business without fanfare but is effective in a defined role.
Janmark played on a $1 million deal in 2023-24. He delivered 1.02 points per 60. The scoring total ranked No. 341 among the 385 forwards who played the most during the regular season. Offensively, Janmark is a fourth-line talent.
His value comes in outscoring at five-on-five. During the 2023-24 season, he was at a 52 percent goal share while playing on a depth line (he played sparingly with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl). The other Oilers’ depth lines (defined as the group who played without McDavid and Draisaitl) delivered a 47 percent goal percentage, via Natural Stat Trick, overall.
In the postseason, Janmark remains a 50 percent outscorer, while the rest of the Oilers forwards are 6-14 (30 percent) without the two impact centres.
Janmark is also a strong penalty killer and has scored two goals short-handed (tied for the league lead) during the 2024 playoffs. His on-ice totals for short-handed minutes (2-2 goals) is exceptional in a small sample, helping the club to a phenomenal total (2-4 goals short-handed) so far in the playoffs.
Janmark is a quality bottom-six winger and has provided more than value for the $1 million invested. His value is estimated at $1.4 million via The Athletic, and his postseason performance may vault him higher in full free agency.
If the Oilers can sign him to another contract in the same range as one year ago, it should be considered a wise investment.
When general manager Ken Holland traded for Adam Henrique at the deadline, there were howls of derision from many fans of hockey analytics.
Winger Tyler Toffoli was the preferred target by many fans, and he delivered 7-4-11 in 18 regular season games for the Winnipeg Jets. He also scored two goals in Winnipeg’s five playoff games this spring.
Holland targeted Henrique for his utility, and he has played both centre and left wing during his time with the Oilers.
During the regular season, Henrique posted 6-3-9 in 22 games with Edmonton and has added 3-3-6 in 14 playoff games.
His ability to play left wing on a line with McDavid is impressive. The two men were 6-1 goals together in just 26 minutes five-on-five during the regular season and are 3-3 goals in 61 postseason minutes in the game state.
It’s Henrique’s time at centre that makes him so valuable to the Oilers. During the playoffs, he has been deployed in the middle for 111 minutes, going 4-2 goals and giving coach Kris Knoblauch all kinds of options.
Henrique is a perfect bookend player for Edmonton’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Each man’s ability to play in all disciplines, and to play centre or wing, allows the team to run with a hot hand no matter the situation.
Henrique will be a sought-after free agent this summer, and he’s coming off a contract with an AAV of $5.825 million. The Athletic estimates have him right around that number in terms of value.
There is a thought in some circles that Edmonton’s new general manager will look to sign him to a longer deal for less AAV.
Edmonton would have to offload salary to make it work, but Henrique’s impressive showing right out of the box with the Oilers makes the idea attractive and worth pursuing.
Management poked a big hole in the team’s 2024-25 cap when signing Connor Brown to an incentive-laden contract.
For most of the regular season, the contract was regarded as a pure tragedy by Oilers fans.
Around the deadline, Brown began to play better. It was known he was coming off a serious injury and that the early portion of the season would be difficult for player and team.
In truth, Brown’s outscoring at five-on-five (actual and expected) didn’t kick into gear until Game 61 of the regular season.
That’s a lot of bad road to get to the good times.
The numbers after the deadline during the regular season were quality. At five-on-five, Brown scored 2.1 points per 60, that’s a top-six number and he did it by playing with a variety of centres up and down the roster.
His goal share in those games (54 percent) showed he was finally healthy and ready to contribute to the playoff run.
Since the start of the postseason, Brown has been useful at five-on-five and on the penalty kill.
On the PK, he’s playing major minutes and is one of the most successful Oilers over the playoff run.
His five-on-five scoring is off the pace (just 1.18 per 60) but his goal share is at 50 percent and his performance overall is impressive.
It isn’t known where Brown’s next contract will land, and expecting him to give Edmonton a discount isn’t rational.
That said, he has shown an ability to play well with the rest of the Oilers roster and that has value.
Janmark and Brown
An interesting group of numbers has been compiled by the two wingers over the playoff run.
Janmark and Brown have been on the ice together for 25 minutes on the penalty kill. The duo is 2-1 goals and they’ve been a threat (three high-danger chances for, 11 against) often.
It isn’t the only reason to sign the pair, but it’s clear chemistry exists.
At five-on-five, the two men are 3-2 goals over the entire postseason.
Bottom line
The three men have played just 28:27 together at five-on-five in the playoffs, with a 1-0 goal share and a 56 percent expected goal share.
That’s the definition of a small sample and the numbers can’t be trusted no matter how much the eye test impresses.
The line played just two minutes together during the regular season.
Bringing back all three players, and using them on a single line, would be expensive and there are no guarantees it will work in a larger sample.
That said, what the Oilers needed all season long, a third line that can hold opponents at bay while the McDavid and Draisaitl lines are at rest, is finally a living, breathing thing.
Signing all three players could cost $8.5 million or more and the Oilers cap situation likely won’t allow that kind of investment far from the feature roles on the team.
This trio has captured the imagination of Oilers fans by playing a strong two-way game together and apart.
If these three help the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, they will be remembered fondly no matter what free agency brings this summer.
(Photo of Mattias Janmark and Adam Henrique: Sergei Belski / USA Today)