Thrissur: Early on 6 March, rumours of a “prominent Congress leader” from Kerala joining the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) began to do the rounds. Since these originated from New Delhi and not Thiruvananthapuram, they were seriously pursued and the turncoat was identified as Padmaja Venugopal — daughter of four-time chief minister K. Karunakaran.
By noon, a news channel broke the story, and although Padmaja came up with a social media post refuting the development, it was confirmed to be true by that evening.
The next day, Congress’ T.N. Prathapan kicked off his re-election campaign from Thrissur by paying floral tributes at the K. Karunakaran memorial in Punkunnam.
Later that evening, the Congress screening committee met in New Delhi to finalise its first list of candidates. The meeting took place as Padmaja’s entry into the BJP was playing out on news channels where panellists made fun of the ineptness of the Congress leadership to persuade the daughter of a stalwart leader from joining the BJP ahead of a crucial election.
By late night, however, it emerged that the Congress leadership had pulled a rabbit out of the hat, even if the final announcement was due — K. Muraleedharan, the talismanic Vadakara MP, would shift to his base in Thrissur to offset the damage caused by his sister Padmaja’s desertion.
Many didn’t take it seriously, since the Congress leadership is not known to take such calculated risks, so much so that Prathapan’s posters were being plastered across Swaraj Round in the town even in the wee hours by workers marshalled by former Wadakkancherry legislator Anil Akkara.
But by the next morning, on 8 March, Prathapan himself was seen writing K. Muraleedharan’s name on walls along with district Congress committee president Jose Valloor, and there was a spring in the step of the Congressmen in Thrissur after being crestfallen with the news of Padmaja’s exit.
On the other hand, things were looking vastly different in the BJP camp. “Why couldn’t they wait till the Congress list was out before making Padmaja’s entry public?” a state BJP veteran who did not want to be named, told ThePrint almost in exasperation.
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Significance of Thrissur for BJP
Thrissur had been crucial to the BJP’s calculations in Kerala with Suresh Gopi looking like a winning candidate in the seat. This was reflected in PM Narendra Modi making his way to Thrissur twice since January, even before the official announcement of Gopi’s name.
Such is the importance attached by the BJP to opening its account in Kerala that Suresh Gopi was pulling out all stops.
Now, there is more significance to a BJP win in a seat like Thrissur than it would appear at first glance. The demographics of the seat, with well over 40 percent minority population, was always going to be a challenge to the party, but Gopi had managed to position himself as a do-gooder, as someone not in the regular BJP mould, endearing himself to vast sections of people.
The seven assembly segments of Guruvayur, Manalur, Ollur, Thrissur, Nattika, Irinjalakuda, and Puthukkad form the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency.
According to the 2011 census, Hindus make up 58.42 percent of the population in the Thrissur district, while Christians and Muslims account for 24.27 percent and 17.07 percent, respectively.
A win for Gopi from such a constituency (a seat with a sizeable Christian and Muslim population) would make him a contender for a cabinet rank and he could have been projected as the BJP chief ministerial candidate for 2026.
Even in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Gopi made waves in Thrissur despite getting hardly a fortnight to campaign where his viral speech — “Enikku ee Thrissur venam’, Ningal enikku ee Thrissur tharanam, ee Thrissur njan ingu edukkuva (I want this Thrissur, please hand Thrissur over to me, I am taking Thrissur)” — becoming the stuff of memes.
The fact that Gopi nearly tripled the BJP’s votes and gave a scare to the eventual winner in Prathapan was duly noted by its central leadership, and he emerged in pole position in the run-up to 2024.
In the 2019 elections, Gopi secured 28.2 percent of the votes — an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous Lok Sabha elections.
The BJP lately has also been concentrating at the booth level and getting volunteers to go to people’s homes to get those who aren’t registered as voters, including first-timers, to sign up.
Meanwhile, the Church is critical to the BJP’s calculations, and Gopi had been building bridges with it after the Manipur riots significantly dampened the clergy’s enthusiasm for the ruling party.
The gifting of a crown to the Lourdes Metropolitan Cathedral might have since attained controversy on whether it was made of pure gold or gold-plated, but the symbolism wasn’t lost on anyone.
Prathapan’s gymnastics
In 2019, Prathapan had feared losing to Gopi in the last lap, although he ended up winning by over 93,000 votes. Ever since, Prathapan has been trying to wriggle out of another contest, keen to switch to state politics.
He had tried to secure a seat for the assembly polls in 2021, but in vain, and even as late as last year, he had nominated young Turk V.T. Balram as his potential replacement.
Prathapan’s poor nursing of the constituency had also become a poll issue.
But his Achilles heel seemed to be a whisper campaign in social media projecting him to be a “Hamas sympathiser”, specifically targeting his acceptability among the significant Christian voters in the constituency.
On 17 December 2023, Prathapan reacted by making an outreach to the Church leadership and it was significant that he travelled in the same vehicle as the Thrissur Archbishop Andrews Thazhath to partake in the wedding of the son of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) president Sayyid Sadiq Ali Shihab Thangal in Malappuram.
Notwithstanding the position of the clergy, Suresh Gopi seemed to have cracked the code of acceptability with the laity, especially among the business community, who seemed to have written off the Congress prospects at the Centre for 2024. “Thrissur will get high priority for development if Suresh Gopi were to win,” noted a prominent jeweller from the city.
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How Muraleedharan’s arrival shakes up calculations
While Prathapan’s clout in the coastal belt and among the Muslims and fisherfolk was never in doubt, it was estimated that there would be a significant switch from the traditional Congress vote bank of Christians and Nairs to the BJP for Gopi.
Padmaja Venugopal’s switching of camps was only going to exacerbate it, and even the Muslim community would have deserted Prathapan had the Left candidate V.S. Sunil Kumar emerged as a bigger challenger to Gopi.
And that is where the BJP’s apple cart has been upset by the fielding of K. Muraleedharan — for he is acceptable to all communities.
Thrissur is also the city where Muraleedharan grew up and encountered an unexpected loss to V.V. Raghavan in the 1998 Lok Sabha election.
Back then, it is believed that K. Karunakaran’s stint as home minister during the Emergency and excesses against prominent business families in the town (most prominently P.T. Manuel/Fashion Jewelry group) played a part in the loss.
“That sentiment doesn’t exist anymore. In fact, we would only be happy to have Muraleedharan represent us,” another prominent jeweller based in Poonkunnam told ThePrint.
Sunil Kumar’s candidature
The Left candidate V.S. Sunil Kumar of the Communist Party of India (CPI) is also a formidable candidate in his own right. A former minister, Kumar is a pleasing personality with none of the uptightness associated with fellow Left politicians.
Apart from the cadre votes, he also enjoys some personal popularity in the city premises as a long-term public servant in the region.
However, the Karuvannur bank scam and the prevailing anti-incumbency against the state government could put paid to his hopes.
What is certain is that the contest in Thrissur will go down to the wire, with all three candidates fancying their chances.
Despite Muraleedharan’s late entry, Suresh Gopi is expecting women voters in the constituency to get him through.
“But Gopi has a distinct disadvantage as he won’t poll more than a fraction of the 15 percent Muslim votes in the constituency,” veteran Thrissur-based journalist George Podipara told ThePrint.
(Edited by Richa Mishra)
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