MLB Betting Guide: Picks for Home Run Derby, All-Star Game

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Just because it’s the All-Star break doesn’t mean we can’t try to find some value. The 2021 Major League Baseball All-Star Game and Home Run Derby will be played at Coors Field in Denver, and there will be plenty of “Midsummer Classic” bets to be made for those inclined.

Below is the betting breakdown of he All-Star Game and the Home Run Derby with the latest lines. I’ve also included my own picks to let you know which way I’m leaning.

(All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current as of time of publication.)

Home Run Derby

The Home Run Derby is a bracket-style single-elimination tournament with each player having three minutes in rounds one and two to hit as many home runs as possible. The final will consist of a two-minute round.

Expect a ton of long homers tonight in the thin air at Coors Field, especially since the baseballs used for the derby will not be placed in the humidor like they would for a regular-season game.

Here’s a breakdown of the field for this year’s derby:

Shohei Ohtani (+198): He’s the major league leader at the All-Star break with 33 home runs and is the No. 1 seed in this bracket-style competition.

Joey Gallo (+377): The number-two seed in the derby has hit at least 40 homers in his last two seasons and is on pace to hit that mark in 2021.

Pete Alonso (+428): He is the defending champion and will try to join Ken Griffey Jr. and Yoenis Cespedes as the only repeat derby champs. Alonso racked up 57 dingers in his 2019 victory, which was the the fourth-most all time.

Matt Olson (+542): The 27-year-old Oakland A has clubbed at least 20 homers in each season of his major league career outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.

Salvador Perez (+720): He is the biggest player in the field at 255 pounds. Three of the last four home run derby champions have been at least 245 pounds.

Juan Soto (+681): Soto has the lowest launch angle out of all the participants and could have issues trying to clear the tall right field wall at Coors Field.

Trevor Story (+900): The Rockies’ rep will try to join Ryne Sandberg, Todd Frazier and Bryce Harper as the only hitters to win the home run derby in their home ball park.

Trey Mancini (+1200): He’ll be the sentimental pick after missing 2020 while battling colon cancer. The Orioles first baseman/outfielder has racked up 16 homers so far in 2021.

Pick: I think there is a ton of value in taking Story at +900 to win the derby in his home ball park. Story is also on the opposite side of the bracket from Ohtani.

American League All-Stars at National League All-Stars at 7:30 p.m. EDT (Tuesday)

American League:
MONEYLINE: -102
RUN LINE +1.5: -180

National League:
MONEYLINE: -118
RUN LINE -1.5: +150

Total:
OVER 10.5: +100
UNDER 10.5: -120

This is the 91st edition of the “Midsummer Classic,” which has been dominated in recent years by the American League. The AL has won seven in a row and have been the moneyline favourite in four straight. The American League has also won 25 of the last 32 all-star games.

Diving into the total: The under has been an ATM at the MLB All-Star Game. The under is a spectacular 11-2-1 (84.6%) in the last 14 matchups.

Pick: I’m usually not a trends guy, but these are just too good to ignore. Take the American League on the money line at -102 and take the under of 10.5 at -120.

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