Deadlines spur decisions and as the opening of the free agent market neared, the late Sunday evening and early Monday morning hours (out east) were full of activity. A few of the bigger names on the list of pending UFAs were taken off the market, while rumours swirled about the next step others may take.
Sam Reinhart, previously atop our board, re-signed for the maximum eight-year term with the Florida Panthers before the midnight deadline to do so.
And though not officially announced yet, Jake Guentzel, our No. 2, is well down the road to signing a seven-year deal with Tampa Bay after the Lightning acquired his rights from Carolina. It’s anticipated that will be announced before the market opens.
Meantime, Patrick Kane re-signed an incentive-laden contract with the Detroit Red Wings for a $6.5 million AAV — and Detroit may be more active yet when the doors open on July 1.
With those names now off the list, here’s a rundown and ranking of hockey’s best impending unrestricted free agents, plus the latest buzz circulating about their future before the market opens at noon ET, 9 a.m. PT.
Age on July 1: 34
Position: Left wing / Centre
2023-24 salary cap hit: $8.5 million
The latest: Though the Lightning haven’t been as eager to get Stamkos signed to an extension as some other core players when he was last up for a deal in 2016, or now in 2024, there still seems to be a chance he could stay there — just as he did on June 29 eight years ago.
With the Lightning trading for, and reportedly on the verge of signing Guentzel for seven years, the fact nothing official was announced on free agency eve might indicate Tampa Bay is still working away on Stamkos.
“I think part of the reason why they haven’t revealed or have been so cautious about revealing some of those (Guentzel) details is because they’re still grinding on Steven Stamkos,” Frank Seravalli said on Sportsnet Central. “I think there’s still some hope on their part, I think there’s still some hope on the part of Steven Stamkos and his camp that they can find a way to work something out.”
However, that’s not the most likely outcome anymore.
Days before, Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reported that Tampa tried to do something with Stamkos that they attempted with Alex Killorn: offer a long-term deal to get him his money, but with a smaller AAV. Killorn, of course, signed for four years and a $6.25 million AAV with Anaheim instead. For Stamkos, LeBrun believed the similar offer was for eight years and around a $3 million AAV.
At the draft Lightning GM Julien BriseBois indicated with certainty that Stamkos would head to market.
“My responsibility is to see what’s best for the Lightning organization, and Steven has to do what’s best for him, his career and his family. So, unless something changes between now and July 1 — and it doesn’t look like it will — we will get to July 1,” BriseBois said.
Coming off a 40-goal season, the 34-year-old Stamkos still has a lot left in the tank and there will no doubt be a long lineup of suitors should he actually get to the market this time.
2. Jonathan Marchessault
Age on July 1: 33
Position: Right wing / Left wing
2023-24 salary cap hit: $5 million
The latest: The Conn Smythe–winning Marchessault is an original Misfit integral to the defending champions’ off-ice culture and on-ice success. No doubt, in a cap-free world, the sides would be content to extend their relationship beyond this season.
Yet one only need to look as far as Reilly Smith, GM Kelly McCrimmon’s 2023 cap casualty, to see the line between sentiment and business.
It’s hard to imagine Marchessault in any other NHL jersey at this point. He’s become a face of the franchise. But, perhaps it’s time to start pondering it.
Interviewing Marchessault in March, he made it clear that the value of his next contract motivated his performance. (He crushed a career-high in goals, with 42, the most of any UFA left.) So, too, was the chance to win again.
“I want to give a good future for my kids, right? That’s what drives me, family wise,” said the father of four.
“But once you taste winning, it’s more than a drug. We were on such a high of emotion last year, it’s the best feeling. You just want to keep going towards it. That’s what drives me. Also, my Cup day, I had so much things going on. I want to win again, put it in my living room and do (expletive) all all day.”
On May 28, Marchessault went public with frustration over the lack of negotiations.
“I did not have a call yet or anything,” Marchessault told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “They said they were interested to definitely re-sign me, and we’ll see.”
It wouldn’t be like the flashy Golden Knights to let such a productive and beloved player walk out the door and not have something else up their sleeve. Definitley a team to watch as the market opens.
Age on July 1: 30
Position: Defence
2023-24 salary cap hit: $3.5 million
The latest: Much like teammate Reinhart, Montour had spent years elsewhere before finally finding his best fit with Florida, the new Stanley Cup champs.
And like Reinhart, Montour came into the season with zero protection or contract security. All signs were pointing to a willingness to extend a working relationship, but as the market opens a wide range of teams will have their eye on the offence-fuelling blueliner who enjoyed a career year in 2022-23 (16 goals, 73 points) that sprung almost out of nowhere.
Prudently, GM Zito was not in a rush to buy Montour stock on July 1, when it was at its highest. Instead, Florida’s front office chose patience, waiting to see how Montour’s shoulder responded from summertime surgery.
Late to get running, the right-shooting Montour didn’t light up the league again, but he’s been solid (eight goals and 25 assists in 66 games).
Montour was a warrior in the ’23 and ’24 post-seasons. And puck-moving, right-shot defencemen in their prime aren’t exactly in abundance.
Zito took care of another pending UFA D-man, Gustav Forsling, first, signing him to an eight-year extension at a $5.75-million cap hit. Montour will ask for more.
“One day at a time. My goal is to try to keep the core together,” Zito said of Montour’s future on March 8. “At the same time, be respectful that you know people have to make individual decisions.”
But the sharks are circling should Montour hit the open market. The Utah Hockey Club, for one, has already started re-shaping its blue line with draft weekend trades for Sergachev and John Marino. Michael Kesselring and Sean Durzi have since also re-signed. That’s four blueliners. They still have over $20 million in cap space.
Lots of money for aggressive new owner Ryan Smith to splash the table with.
“Utah I still think there are some people who believe they’re going to be in on Brandon Montour if he hits the market,” Friedman said.
Of course, they won’t be the only ones after the puck-moving blueliner, and you can’t count out the Stanley Cup champs keeping him, even if he does make it to the open market.
Age on July 1: 29
Position: Centre
2023-24 salary cap hit: $4.85 million
The latest: Lindholm indisputably became the most dependable centre headed toward the open market once Auston Matthews, Sebastian Aho, and Mark Scheifele re-signed last summer, a fact that simultaneously increased the player’s bargaining leverage and trade value.
Lindholm and the Flames took an earnest run at a contract extension, but when the player’s ask exceeded Calgary GM Craig Conroy’s budget, it quickly became clear that he’d be traded away.
Conroy secured a decent package by renting Lindholm to the Canucks — a first-round pick, a conditional fourth-rounder, winger Andrei Kuzmenko, plus a couple defence prospects — but the two-way centre’s fit in Vancouver was initially underwhelming.
That Vancouver locked up Elias Pettersson long-term, gave the bag to Filip Hronek, and also re-signed Dakota Joshua, Teddy Blueger and Tyler Myers suggests there is not enough budget to turn Lindholm into more than a pure rental.
At the trade deadline, there were even murmurs that Lindholm was being considered in a three-way flip trade to the Boston Bruins that would then send Guentzel to the Canucks instead.
The centre’s stock had been on decline, but a stellar post-season did wonders for his market value.
As much as the Canucks enjoyed his critical contributions this May, accommodating Lindholm’s raise will be difficult.
Cities that make sense as potential landing spots: Boston, Carolina (again), Chicago, Utah, and San Jose.
5. Matt Duchene
Age on July 1: 33
Position: Centre / Right wing
2023-24 salary cap hit: $3 million
The latest: A surprise free agent in 2023 after getting bought out by new Nashville GM Barry Trotz, Duchene signed with the Dallas Stars because they “checked off every box.”
Enjoying better matchups as a second-line centre and being surrounded by a more complete collection of talent, Duchene thrived in Big D.
The 1,056-game veteran rebounded with a 65-point campaign and helped push the Stars to the Western Conference Final.
With Chris Tanev traded to Toronto, there’s one less pending UFA for GM Jim Nill to find room for under the cap. He still must accommodate a raise for RFA Thomas Harley, but there is growing belief that Duchene and the Stars are on the way to extending their relationship.
Things can still change in any negotiation, of course, but don’t be surprised if we strike Duchene’s name off this list sometime on Sunday and replace it with another.
6. Brett Pesce
Age on July 1: 29
Position: Defence
2023-24 salary cap hit: $4.025 million
The latest: Trade rumours and Pesce had always gone together like fish and grits.
And now it appears the D-man will simply walk out the door for nothing.
Rumblings that teams were calling on the player and/or the Hurricanes were considering moving him has become an annual tradition in Carolina — largely because a right-shot, penalty-killing, shutdown defenceman with a stable track record is such a rare commodity.
Considering the deals given in 2023 to UFAs Vladislav Gavrikov and Damon Severson, Pesce should be looking at a long-term contract with a $6-million (plus?) AAV.
The player is on record saying he’d welcome an extension with the club that drafted him back in 2013. But with Martin Necas, Brady Skjei, Tony DeAngelo, and Teuvo Teravainen all on expiring deals, Tulsky has plenty of difficult decisions to make for his cash-conscious organization.
Pesce appears to be pricing himself out.
The Predators, Maple Leafs and Devils were among the teams with reported interest, but while Nashville now might be gearing up to chase Stamkos, and the Maple Leafs acquired Tanev in a trade, the Devils were the only one of the three who moved out a defenceman Saturday, trading John Marino and his three-year, $4.4 million cap hit to Utah.
Might that be to clear one right handed shot defenceman for another?
“Marino being traded confirms what a lot of people have expected for a while that Brett Pesce is heading to New Jersey,” Friedman reported Sunday.
7. Teuvo Teravainen
Age on July 1: 29
Position: Left wing / Right wing
2023-24 salary cap hit: $5.4 million
The latest: The four-time 20-goal scorer routinely produces strong offensive numbers while playing dependable defence and staying out of the penalty box.
In late summer, former GM Waddell told Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer that all extension talks with Teravainen, Pesce and Skjei had been silenced.
There is certainly a wait-and-see vibe coming out of Carolina, an organization known for its financial prudence.
Teravainen framed this season as “a big year” for himself and the team and noted that “not too much” extension talks were had in-season.
Would he prefer to re-sign?
“Of course,” he said, upon elimination. “I’ve had such a good time here with all these people, and the team’s been awesome. Everything is good here, so hopefully I can stay. You never know. It’s kind of a new situation for me right now.”
Teravainen’s skills would complement many a top six. If the Hurricanes don’t pay up, another team will.
Sources say, he’s open to a fresh situation.
Age on July 1: 32
Position: Right wing / Left wing
2023-24 salary cap hit: $4.25 million
The latest: When New Jersey’s Tom Fitzgerald acquired Toffoli from the Flames in the off-season, the Devils GM hoped the scoring winger would grow into more than a one-year rental.
(In fact, Fitzgerald nearly signed Toffoli in the 2020 off-season, before the Montreal Canadiens locked him up for four years and $17 million.)
So, yes, the prolific scorer and the team supposedly on the rise had mutual interest on an extension.
And then New Jersey’s losses began to outweigh its wins, prompting a deadline deal to all-in Winnipeg.
“We’re looking forward to it,” Toffoli said of he and his wife, Cat Belanger. “We’re going to another Canadian city. There’s nothing better than playing in a Canadian market. It’s a weird feeling, but at the same time we’re excited. Winnipeg, the fans are very passionate. I’m excited to go there and keep pushing for the playoffs and try and make a run there.”
GM Kevin Cheveldayoff also went deep with rentals Sean Monahan and Colin Miller, plus held tight on three “own rentals,” yet his Jets were swift first-round fodder for Colorado.
The Toffoli file is one of many Winnipeg must sort through this summer as the front office adjusts from another playoff flop.
“There are going to be changes,” Cheveldayoff said. “Changes are inevitable every off-season. We need to come back 10 per cent better. Everybody. Somehow.”
Age on July 1: 30
Position: Centre
2023-24 salary cap hit: $2.75 million
The latest: Superb in the spring of 2023, Stephenson piled up 20 points in middle-six minutes during the Golden Knights’ 22-game Cup run and played an integral role en route to his second championship ring.
The centreman’s production scuffled in 2023-24, however. Stephenson was a minus player (dash-9) for the first time in five seasons, and his 51 points marked a three-year low.
That said, the NHL’s demand for both centres and proven post-season performers remains sky-high. The Red Wings splashed $25.5 million at centre J.T. Compher in 2023’s free agency, and his previous best was 52 points.
Bottom line: There will be a robust market for the two-way Stephenson if he remains unsigned by July 1.
10. Brady Skjei
Age on July 1: 30
Position: Defence
2023-24 salary cap hit: $5.25 million
The latest: Despite the top-four defenceman’s insistence that he’d love to remain in Carolina, Skjei’s career season should price him out.
The versatile, all-situations lefty is comfortable playing the right side and is coming off career highs in both regular-season points (47) and playoff points (nine).
“There hasn’t been a ton (of negotiating),” Skjei told reporters once the Hurricanes were eliminated. “It’ll probably pick up now before July 1. Obviously, this is an unbelievable place. Great people here, coaching staff, players, medical, everything. It’s an unbelievable place to be. We’ll see what happens.”
Skjei says he is looking for a “fair” offer.
“That’s the biggest thing,” he said. “We’ll see what that looks like.”
Looks like it could start with a six on a long-term deal.
11. Jeff Skinner
Age on July 1: 32
Position: LW
2023-24 salary cap hit: $9 million
The latest: Skinner may not have equalled the 40-goal output he posted in his first year with the Sabres at any other point during his $72 million contract, but he’s still a goal scorer, with two 30-plus goal campaigns and 92 goals total over the past three years (43rd in the NHL).
Choosing instead to save over $7 million on their salary cap this summer to be active elsewhere, the Sabres bought out the three years remaining on his eight-year contract. Skinner’s value was blinded by his $9 million cap hit, but his ability to put pucks in net will create a market in free agency. Playoff teams will be after his services at a reduced rate so maybe, finally, he can get into a post-season game in his 15th NHL season.
12. Jake DeBrusk
Age on July 1: 27
Position: LW
2023-24 salary cap hit: $4 million
The latest: The 14th overall pick in the 2015 draft, DeBrusk has twice scored a career-best 27 goals in a season and though he sagged to 19 in 2023-24, he led the Bruins with five goals in the playoffs. After making a trade request out of Boston two years ago, DeBrusk is now set to test the waters as a free agent and should generate a healthy market as a secondary scorer with some muscle to his game who has proven he can step up his game at the most important time of year. DeBrusk had more high danger chances than any other Bruin this past season
More notable UFAs in 2024: Tyler Bertuzzi, Cam Talbot, Ilya Samsonov, T.J. Brodie, Adam Henrique, Sean Walker, Nikita Zadorov, Viktor Arvidsson, Blake Wheeler, Vladimir Tarasenko, Daniel Sprong, Alexander Barabanov, David Perron, Tyson Barrie, Jakub Vrana, Sean Monahan, Max Pacioretty, Tony DeAngelo, Tomas Tatar, Tyler Johnson, Jack Roslovic, Shayne Gostisbehere, Victor Olofsson, Jason Zucker, Matt Dumba, John Klingberg, Chris Tanev, Pheonix Copley, Anthony Duclair, Pat Maroon, Anthony Mantha, James Reimer, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jonathan Drouin, Corey Perry, Alexander Wennberg, Jordan Martinook, Matt Roy, Jani Hakanpaa, Laurent Brossoit, Anthony Stolarz, Joe Pavelski, Ryan Suter, Cam Atkinson.
All salary info via the indispensable CapFriendly.com.
