What to make of the Providence College men’s basketball team through its first 11 games?
There’s a limited sample under new coach Kim English. The Friars could carry a vastly different statistical profile three months from now when Selection Sunday rolls around.
There are a few clues to their identity after a 9-2 non-conference start, one that leads into a Tuesday night matchup with No. 6 Marquette in the Big East. The defending regular-season and tournament champions in the Big East visit the Amica Mutual Pavilion for an 8:30 p.m. showdown.
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Providence has never played three consecutive games downtown to open conference play. The Friars have something of a prime opportunity while battling the Golden Eagles, Butler and Seton Hall. They banked a quality win against Wisconsin and haven’t suffered a loss to date that would dent a potential NCAA Tournament resumé.
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Our marks. Our standard. Our principles. If you spend some time around English or his players, you’ll hear those terms frequently. This is a coaching staff with an analytical bent, and Providence’s locker room clearly has been paying attention. Josh Oduro and Ticket Gaines – veteran transfers from English’s previous stop at George Mason – have been valuable in terms of translating the message as needed.
The Friars have some definite strengths and some clear weaknesses as they exit the nonconference portion of the schedule. Here’s a bit from each category:
Providence’s defense has been mostly excellent
The Friars finished Sunday night ranked 21st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom.com. They’re allowing just 94.5 points per 100 possessions – that would be a program best since the curtailed 2019-20 season and a number bettered only once since 2003-04.
English’s man-to-man schemes allow Providence to address all areas of the floor. University of Rhode Island coach Archie Miller and Brown coach Mike Martin were in agreement – it’s difficult to cleanly attempt 3-pointers against the Friars, let alone make them. Just 30.8% of opposing shots from the field come from beyond the arc, which ranks in the national top 25.
That activity outside also prevents smooth ball movement. Opponents record an assist on just 38.4% of field goals – that’s eighth nationally and would be far and away a program best since KenPom started keeping records of that statistic in 1996-97. Providence has reached March Madness in all but one of the six previous seasons in which it’s held opponents to assists on less than 50% of their field goals.
Want to score inside against the Friars? Good luck
Providence ranks eighth nationally in 2-point defense, holding foes to just 42.0%. The Friars block 15.2% of shots attempted, which ranks inside the national top 15. It goes beyond the expected pillars under the basket like Oduro and Rafael Castro; Garwey Dual and Devin Carter both reject more than 4.5% of attempts while they’re on the floor.
Providence’s lineup combinations squeeze space from their opponents. Its most common five over the last five games – Dual, Carter, Gaines, Bryce Hopkins, Oduro – includes just one player shorter than 6-foot-5. That happens to be Carter, who’s one of the most active perimeter defenders in the sport.
The Friars simply force teams into uncomfortable decisions. They don’t allow opposing guards or forwards to step into 3-pointers and shade secondary defenders toward likely driving lanes. The Rams were among teams who have had some success in two-man ball screen sets down the middle of the floor, but the majority of traditional comfort zones for college players – the wings, the corners, each low post – tend to be crowded.
Providence’s two defeats have had three things in common
Kansas State and Oklahoma held the Friars to their two worst efforts in the following categories: offensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage and 3-point shooting.
The Wildcats surrendered just 0.90 points per possession while the Sooners were even more stingy – just 0.73 points per possession. Providence checked in at an effective 45.2% against Oklahoma and 39.0% against Kansas State – that number awards 50% more credit for made 3-pointers. And, as you might suspect, the Friars had cool perimeter shooting nights against each foe: 5-for-22 against the Wildcats, 5-for-23 against the Sooners.
Does Providence have the players to execute English’s preferred perimeter offense?
Hopkins (23.8%), Dual (31.8%), Corey Floyd Jr. (19.0%) and Gaines (29.8%) have all struggled from deep. Gaines recorded half of his 14 makes in a cruise past overmatched Wagner – he’s just 7-for-37 otherwise.
Career perimeter marks for Hopkins, Floyd and Gaines suggest improvement should come. But their 2-point shooting – 54.9%, 60.9% and 86.7%, respectively – should encourage less settling and more of an attempt to penetrate the defense. Gaines has missed just two of his 15 shots from inside the arc and has the athleticism to finish as needed at the rim.
The Friars enter league play 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Only DePaul – miles behind in 11th place, granted – has been worse. Those sore numbers from deep and frequent turnovers are largely the culprits. Providence gives the ball away on 20.2% of its possessions, which ranks in the 280s nationally.
Carter has been a more productive offensive player across the board, but his turnover rate has spiked more than 8 percentage points as a result of his handling the ball more. Pierre likely has to be more secure than giving it up 31.1% of the time for the Friars to accomplish anything meaningful in March. Castro and Rich Barron both carry turnover rates above 21% in more limited action.
On X: @BillKoch25