Rain, hail and lightning remain in Burning Man weather forecast

Since Friday, six-tenths to eight-tenths inch of rain have fallen over the Black Rock Desert, which is spread across northwest Nevada near the town of Gerlach. National Weather Service meteorologist Chris Johnston said the weather service does not have an official gauge on the Playa, but a Black Rock gauge provides information to them. Some media outlets have reported that the desert recorded up to 6 inches of rain, and Johnston said those reports are inaccurate. 

It takes very little rain to turn the Playa into mud, and Johnston said the soil was already been moist due to recent rain in the area from Tropical Storm Hilary. “It’s like clay out there,” said Johnston, who works out of the weather service’s Reno office.

The chance for rain continues through 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. Sunday over the Black Rock Desert, but Johnston said the heaviest rain will likely have fallen before 6 p.m.

“It looks like the rain is really going to start around 10 a.m. or 11 a.m. this morning,” he said. “It kind of looks like hit-or-miss kind of stuff.”

There’s also a 30% to 50% chance for thunderstorms that could bring lightning, small hail and isolated wind gusts up to 40 mph. Johnston said the highest probability for thunderstorm activity on Sunday is between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. The region could see up to an additional quarter-inch of rain on Sunday. 

“Around here, that amount of rain is not significant, but when you have 70,000 people out there who can’t move, it’s significant,” he said. 

Temperatures have been unseasonably cool over the weekend. A low of 56 degrees was recorded on Sunday morning, Johnston said. The mercury is likely to reach a high of 68 degrees on Sunday afternoon. On Monday morning, the forecasted low is 51 degrees; conditions are expected to warm up Monday afternoon with an afternoon high of 74 degrees.

The low-pressure system that’s bringing the stormy conditions is expected to exit the region by Sunday night, Johnston said.

Burning Man festival organizers released a guide Saturday with information on how to survive the muddy and rainy conditions that are preventing vehicles from moving across the Playa. Cellphone towers were brought to the area on Saturday night, allowing festivalgoers to reach family and friends and make plans. Buses are being brought to Gerlach for those who want to walk out of the festival; the walk includes at least five miles in the mud. 

“We need to count on one another to be patient and create safe conditions for our departure,” the organizers said. “We do not currently have an estimated time for the roads to be dry enough for RVs or vehicles to navigate safely.”