The revenue growth projections exclude Tata Motors, as stated by the report.
In terms of segments, the report reveals that the domestic two-wheeler industry’s volumes are likely to have improved by approximately 10% year-on-year (YoY) in Q1, mainly due to consistent and healthy demand in the urban/premium segment.
However, two-wheeler exports remained weak compared to the previous year, although there was sequential improvement for larger volume players.
Emkay Global predicts overall revenue growth of 24%, 19%, and 16%, accompanied by volume growth of 10%, 5%, and 21% for Bajaj Auto, TVS Motors, and Eicher Motor-Royal Enfield, respectively.
It also anticipates a 6% revenue growth for Honda Motorcycle, despite a 3% volume decline. The report suggests that continued price hikes will support authorized service providers on a sequential basis, with a projected 7% quarter-on-quarter decline in this category for Bajaj Auto. This is attributed to a lower share of three-wheelers during the quarter.
The domestic passenger vehicle industry is predicted to experience an approximately 8% year-on-year growth in the June quarter due to increased production and sustained interest in SUVs.
The market leader, Maruti Suzuki, is expected to achieve nearly 17% revenue growth, supported by 6% higher volumes. Meanwhile, Mahindra & Mahindra’s auto division is predicted to achieve around 33% revenue growth (total growth of 24%) thanks to a 21% increase in volumes.
Despite a 3% decline in volumes, Maruti Suzuki is expected to continue improving its margins on a quarter-on-quarter basis due to ongoing enhancements in the product mix and price increases, according to the brokerage house.
The report highlights a 5% year-on-year decline in volumes for the domestic commercial vehicle industry.
However, the sequential decline is significantly higher at around 23%, attributed to the usual seasonality and the preponement of demand in the last quarter of the previous fiscal year, driven by the implementation of real driving emission/on-board diagnostic-2 norms from April this year.
Regarding their coverage universe, Emkay Global expects a 9% revenue increase for Ashok Leyland (with a 4% volume growth) and a 16% increase for Eicher Motor-Volvo Eicher CV (with a 12% volume growth).
The report indicates that the domestic tractor industry experienced a 2% year-on-year decline in volumes due to a high base and delayed monsoon in certain regions.
Emkay Global forecasts an 11% revenue growth for Escorts and an 8% growth for M&M in this sector.