Series Preview: Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres

The good news is that the Mariners were able to cling to their slim two-game lead in the AL West through no fault of their own — thanks to the Twins, the Astros’ rise up the standings was slowed somewhat last weekend. The bad news is that the M’s couldn’t take advantage of Houston’s hiccup, they suffered through what was quite possibly their worst loss of the season on Sunday, and all of a sudden, the Rangers are surging up the standings with a four-game win streak. The Mariners desperately need some sort of spark to maintain their advantage in the standings and maybe this California road trip will be just the ticket.

At a Glance

Mariners Padres
Mariners Padres
Game 1 Tuesday, July 9 | 6:40 pm
RHP Logan Gilbert RHP Adam Mazur
54% 46%
Game 2 Wednesday, July 10 | 3:40 pm
RHP Bryce Miller RHP Michael King
44% 56%

*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs

Team Overview

Overview Padres Mariners Edge
Overview Padres Mariners Edge
Batting (wRC+) 114 (2nd in NL) 93 (12th in AL) Padres
Fielding (FRV) -8 (9th) 2 (9th) Mariners
Starting Pitching (FIP-) 102 (8th) 92 (3rd) Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-) 97 (8th) 95 (5th) Mariners

Awkwardly positioned as “natural rivals” by the MLB schedule-makers, the Mariners and Padres have paired up in a split home-and-home series in nearly every season since 2015 — the pandemic-shortened season in 2020 and 2021, the last season with an unbalanced schedule, were the two exceptions. Overall, Seattle is winning the Vedder Cup 65-62 and has won the season series the last two years.

After ascending out of their long rebuilding cycle with a playoff appearance in 2020, the Padres have frustratingly made just one other follow up postseason appearance, reaching the NLCS in 2022. This despite plenty of investment from ownership and aggressive trading on the part of PBO and GM A.J. Preller. They’ve already made a couple of bold moves this year, acquiring Dylan Cease just ahead of the start of the season and then adding Luis Arraez in May. They’re currently in the middle of a crowded NL Wild Card race and have been playing solid baseball since a slow start to the season in April.

Padres Lineup

Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+
Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+
Luis Arraez 1B L 400 5.8% 3.8% 0.069 110
Jurickson Profar LF S 372 15.1% 12.4% 0.183 163
Jake Cronenworth 2B L 381 17.1% 7.6% 0.171 121
Manny Machado 3B R 356 21.1% 7.0% 0.152 110
Donovan Solano DH R 170 19.4% 7.1% 0.117 120
Jackson Merrill CF L 331 16.9% 4.5% 0.163 122
David Peralta RF L 81 19.8% 7.4% 0.082 87
Ha-Seong Kim SS R 364 15.7% 12.9% 0.155 108
Kyle Higashioka C R 119 31.1% 4.2% 0.307 119

The Padres are currently without their second best hitter, as Fernando Tatis Jr. has been sidelined with a leg injury since late June. It’s absolutely wild to say that Tatis isn’t San Diego’s best hitter but Jurickson Profar is in the midst of a legitimately wild breakout season. Nearly all of his batted ball peripherals have significantly improved and he’s running the seventh best wRC+ among qualified batters. With Tatis out, Jackson Merrill has done a lot to cover for his absence. Drafted as a shortstop, the 21-year-old rookie was thrown into center field this spring and started the year off slowly as he adapted to big league pitching and a new position. Since the beginning of June, he’s posted a 160 wRC+ with nine home runs.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

San Diego Padres v Texas Rangers

Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

RHP Adam Mazur

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
26 1/3 12.3% 13.9% 7.7% 34.4% 7.52 5.45
Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA
Four-seam 41.0% 94.7 78 52 104 0.423
Sinker 3.1% 93.8
Changeup 10.7% 90.0 84
Curveball 12.0% 80.5 108
Slider 33.3% 86.8 126 80 98 0.220

The Padres’ razor thin starting rotation on top of injuries have forced them to call up Adam Mazur in early June; the Cease trade left him as the most big league ready pitching prospect in San Diego’s organization. He was a second-round college pick in the 2022 draft, giving him a leg up on some of the less developed prospects in the system, and a fantastic minor league season last year elevated his standing too. He ran miniscule walk rates in the minors but has resorted to nibbling around the zone in the big leagues leading to a huge jump in free passes. His slider looks like an above average offering but the rest of his repertoire leaves a lot to be desired.


RHP Michael King

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
105 27.0% 9.2% 12.8% 38.6% 3.51 3.85
Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA
Four-seam 25.4% 93.5 83 97 94 0.355
Sinker 25.9% 92.7 86 122 102 0.335
Changeup 24.5% 86.5 89 115 129 0.256
Slider 5.2% 86.2 125 71 76 0.436
Sweeper 19.0% 81.8 125 94 91 0.265

Michael King was one of the headlining pitchers who came to the Padres in the big Juan Soto trade back in December. He transitioned from high-leverage bullpen work to the starting rotation last summer and provided nine phenomenal starts for the Yankees down the stretch. He’s continued to start for San Diego and has been a solid pitcher for them this year. The addition of sweeper to his arsenal a few years ago helped him push his strikeout rates well above league average and an improving changeup has given him the deep repertoire to thrive in longer outings.


The Big Picture:

AL West Standings

Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form
Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form
Mariners 48-43 0.533 L-W-W-L-L
Astros 46-44 0.511 2.0 W-W-W-L-L
Rangers 43-48 0.473 5.5 L-W-W-W-W
Angels 37-53 0.411 11.0 L-L-W-L-L
Athletics 34-58 0.370 15.0 W-W-L-W-L

AL Leaders & Wild Card Standings

AL Leaders W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form
AL Leaders W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form
Orioles 57-33 0.633 W-L-W-L-W
Guardians 56-33 0.629 W-L-W-W-L
Mariners 48-43 0.533 L-W-W-L-L
AL Wild Card W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form
Yankees 55-37 0.598 +4.5 L-L-L-W-L
Twins 52-39 0.571 +2.0 W-L-W-W-W
Red Sox 49-40 0.551 W-W-W-L-W
Royals 49-43 0.533 1.5 W-L-L-L-W
Astros 46-44 0.511 3.5 W-W-W-L-L

As mentioned above, the Astros lost their drama-filled weekend series to the Twins. Seven batters were hit by pitches in the series, and though none of the injuries seemed serious, there was certainly no love lost between those two teams. Houston returns home this week to host the Marlins for three games. The Rangers have suddenly crept up the standings with a sweep of the Rays last weekend and a win against the Angels in the first game of their series in Anaheim yesterday. The two Texas teams are barreling towards a huge showdown this weekend.

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