Newcastle United’s transfer committee will convene early this week in an attempt to clarify the club’s winter window plans and while the 3-0 FA Cup triumph over arch-rivals Sunderland brought a sense of relief, there is an enduring acceptance that reinforcements are still necessary before the February 1 deadline.
Victory in that Wear-Tyne derby bought everyone inside the club a little time. There will be no immediate questioning of coach Eddie Howe’s position and the prospect of an FA Cup run shifts some focus from Newcastle’s faltering league form.
What that comfortable win at the Stadium of Light did not do, however, was fundamentally alter the internal belief that strengthening is required. Newcastle will not rush into deals but plan to use their two-week “winter break” between Saturday’s Premier League game against Manchester City and their FA Cup fourth-round tie on the weekend of January 27-28 to ramp up their business.
The Athletic looks at the present thinking inside St James’ Park, discusses Newcastle’s financial fair play (FFP) concerns and outlines what will be on the agenda…
The injury situation — and concerns over Joelinton
Newcastle’s equivocation in the market so far has partly been influenced by FFP, but also by injuries. Chronic fitness problems have afflicted them since September and the uncertainty has led to a postponement of potential business.
While the overall picture is improving, Joelinton’s thigh problem is a concern.
Howe described the Brazilian’s issue, which forced him off just after half-time at the weekend, as a “big negative”. Joelinton is almost certain to miss the Manchester City game — he was due to undergo a scan yesterday (Monday) and, considering he has already had three hamstring problems this season, there is a fear the 27-year-old could be absent beyond the end of January.
Joelinton is expected to miss the City game and could be out for longer (MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
That only increases Newcastle’s need for a midfielder, with Sandro Tonali suspended until August. Youngster Lewis Miley has excelled, but Joelinton’s physicality and box-to-box capabilities mean he will be sorely missed.
Joe Willock’s return would partly compensate for that, but the 24-year-old is still believed to be a matter of weeks away from that. He has also started just four games this season due to hamstring and Achilles tendon problems, so his short-term durability is questionable.
The immediate outlook is more promising for Harvey Barnes, who is close to playing again after a foot injury in September. A setback delayed his comeback by six weeks, but the 26-year-old should be back following this winter break.
Callum Wilson’s calf injury is not serious either, meaning the 31-year-old striker may return on FA Cup fourth-round weekend. However, Wilson’s persistent injury problems mean he cannot be relied upon and, ideally, Newcastle would bring in a versatile forward.
Incomings — with Phillips a key target
Newcastle are not close to concluding any deals, in or out. The club prefer to do the majority of their work during summer windows, but there is a willingness to act in this mid-season one, with Howe particularly keen for signings.
The consistent message in previous transfer meetings was that the second half of January was when Newcastle would be busier. Dan Ashworth has already been to Saudi Arabia this month — despite new investor INEOS’ interest in potentially taking him to Manchester United, the sporting director is working on Newcastle’s transfer plans — and their blueprint for the month is thought to have been discussed.
Newcastle’s 80 per cent majority owners are Saudi’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) and given their ever-shifting injury situation, as well as FFP constraints and their need to be “creative” — a word several insiders use to describe their approach — negotiations will be complex.
Unless they can sell, loans including either options or obligations to buy are their most likely route to incomings and temporary deals of that sort are usually completed late in windows. Newcastle’s scouts have continued to attend matches in recent days to check on targets across multiple positions — although midfield is the priority.
Manchester City’s England international Kalvin Phillips is admired by Howe and is available on loan. There is hope at Newcastle that an agreement can be reached, though official negotiations have yet to begin and a reported multi-million-pound loan fee is prohibitive.
Howe wants Newcastle to sign players in January (Andy Buchanan/AFP via Getty Images)
Newcastle realise that rival Premier League interest may mean Phillips moves before they are in a financial position to act, but he is not the only midfielder they are tracking. Domestic and overseas alternatives are being considered. With Lewis Hall already signed from Chelsea on an initial temporary deal, Newcastle only have one of their two domestic loan slots available, so they must balance who to use it on. They can make further loan signings from abroad, however.
An additional attacker is also desired and Newcastle are attempting to find out who may be available, which is perhaps why previously-mentioned names such as Paris Saint-Germain’s Hugo Ekitike and Raphinha of Barcelona have resurfaced, though both links have been played down.
While Newcastle are receptive to strengthening everywhere, goalkeeper is the third position they are focusing on following Nick Pope’s shoulder injury, though bringing someone in appears unlikely at this stage.
FFP complications — and exploring potential sales
Although some Newcastle fans may be dubious about FFP being an issue for the club given they have preached a similar sentiment before, the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR) are significantly hampering them.
Their group-stage exit from the Champions League denied Newcastle greater revenues from Europe’s marquee club competition, while the benefits of the lucrative new Adidas kit deal will not be felt until next season. Newcastle are believed to be very close to their PSR ceiling, making incoming business extremely difficult without deferred payment structures or player sales.
That will be reiterated during this week’s meeting, with some voices inside the club repeatedly warning that following Everton’s 10-point deduction in November for PSR breaches, Newcastle must remain inside their permitted parameters. They will only sign players if they can do so without going beyond their limit.
Loans with obligations to buy, similar to the Hall deal, are being considered, but the expectation is that few selling clubs will agree to transfers of that kind given their own desire to recoup to invest. Instead, Newcastle have been exploring how they can bring money in to increase their buying power.
There is no guarantee Newcastle will sell anyone this month and Howe ideally does not want to lose any of his first-team squad, but such avenues have at least been investigated. Offloading fringe players would be preferred, but there is a scant market for them, nor will they generate significant fees. Still, shifting the wages of Isaac Hayden, Ryan Fraser and Jeff Hendrick would free up some space in terms of PSR, though doing so will not be easy.
Howe does not intend to part with any of Newcastle’s most-saleable assets in January – despite Paris Saint-Germain’s reported interest in Bruno Guimaraes, the club are determined to keep hold of the 26-year-old Brazil midfielder — but ageing squad members, or bit-part players, could be expendable if their exits facilitate the arrival of an upgrade.
Allan Saint-Maximin’s summer sale raised vital funds (Yasser Bakhsh/Getty Images)
Whether Newcastle exploit PIF’s links to four Saudi Pro League clubs once more remains to be seen. Allan Saint-Maximin moved to Al Ahli in a deal approaching $30million (£23.5m) during the summer, which allowed Newcastle to sign Barnes and Tino Livramento.
The sale of an academy graduate is most beneficial in FFP terms as it gets accounted for as “pure profit”, with no transfer fee paid out initially, but Sean Longstaff is the only senior player who fits that category and he is an almost ever-present in Howe’s team.
As of yet, nobody has been made available for sale despite rumours about several players. The transfer committee will debate the pros and cons of selling-to-buy this month, as offloading a first-team player would mean a replacement is required and securing an upgrade will be far from straightforward.
What is clear is that potential outgoing business will be a feature of Newcastle’s strategy this summer, given PSR.
How Newcastle will use their “winter break”
Newcastle’s owners were wholly supportive of Howe anyway, but Saturday’s derby victory only buttressed that and calms any short-term fears that PIF may act rashly in regards to the head coach.
Amanda Staveley and husband Mehrdad Ghodoussi, the co-owners, have stressed to Howe that they will help him in any way they can this month and that is why, even given the PSR constraints, Newcastle are trying to find ways to improve the squad.
With a less-intense fixture schedule as they are out of Europe and the Carabao Cup, the coaching staff are confident they can extract more from their squad during a much-needed two-week block of training. Those sessions are set to take place at the club’s base in Benton rather than abroad, with Howe opting against taking his squad to Saudi or Dubai for a warm-weather camp as he has in previous years.
If everything goes according to plan on and off the pitch, then by FA Cup fourth-round weekend at the end of the month, Howe may be able to welcome back several injured players as well as field a signing or two, and Newcastle’s prospects for the remainder of the season would suddenly appear brighter.
(Top photo: Getty Images)