The final four is set. Are you surprised about the four teams that made it?
Marilyn Dubinski: Nothing in the West would have been too surprising unless someone outside of the top 5 made it, but I can’t imagine anyone saw the Denver-Minnesota series going the way it did. Denver started 0-2 at home, won the next three, then Minnesota won the last two, including Game 7 in Denver featuring a 20-point comeback. That was certainly one of the wildest series I can remember. I’m not surprised that the veteran experience shined through for Dallas over OKC, and kudos to the Mavs for addressing their defensive shortcomings at the trade deadline. The biggest shock was the Pacers, who looked dead in the water, somehow outlasting the Knicks (although they were helped by Jalen Brunson breaking his hand in Game 7). Once again, Tom Thibodeau is going to be facing questions about whether his heavy minutes and short rotations is the wrong approach.
Mark Barrington: I was fascinated by the series between the Nuggets and Wolves. It had more twists than a strand of DNA. Overall, the teams were pretty evenly matched, but most of the individual games were knockouts. It was fitting that the series went to seven games, which turned out to be two mini-games, the one before halftime, and the final one, where a deeper Timberwolves finally overtook a worn out Nuggets team that depended too heavily on their MVP—who didn’t get enough help from the supporting cast, even at home.
The biggest upset would be the Pacers, but they took advantage of Tom Thibodeau’s tendency to overplay his best contributors into oblivion. When Jason Hart runs out of gas, you know you did something wrong, because that guy has almost endless energy. Before the series started, I thought the Pacers had a shot, so I’m not that shocked that they won the series, but the way that Madison Square Garden was littered with the broken bodies of the defeated Knicks made it painful to watch.
I picked the experienced and loaded Mavs to cruise past the Thunder, and my only surprise in the series was that OKC was able to make it a six-game series. Boston’s gentleman’s sweep over the Cavs was about as surprising as a downtown traffic jam at rush hour, and I only hope that the Pacers can make the conference finals a little more interesting.
Jacob Douglas: Boston has made a cupcake run to the conference finals facing two teams who were beaten up by injuries. Besides the Celtics, I’m surprised by the rest of the field. New York looked like a contender to make the Finals until they fizzled out. Hey Tom Thibodeau… maybe playing your guys 46 minutes a night isn’t such a great strategy! Just saying. Credit to the Pacers for shooting the lights out. They’ll need that to continue if they have any hope of beating Boston.
The West has been wildly unpredictable. I mean, a 20-point second half comeback against the defending champs? Minnesota might just win the whole thing. Anthony Edwards and the crew have been so fun to watch all postseason. They are on a legacy-defining run right now. Dallas will need its role players to continue their unexpected hot streak to take down the Wolves.
Jesus Gomez: It’s surprising to not see Denver in the conference finals, but that loss to the Spurs at the end of the regular season put them on a collision course with the only team that could knock them out, in my opinion. The Pacers being there is just the result of circumstances, which is something they should keep in mind before trying to go all in this offseason, because that team only got there because of injuries. The Celtics were a shoo-in to make it and the Thunder were vulnerable because of their youth, so I’m not surprised a Mavericks team that was great after the trade deadline took them out.
Which player let his team down the most in the semis, and who exceeded expectations?
Dubinski: I would have said Tyrese Haliburton had the Pacers not come through, but instead I’ll go with Josh Giddey, who after starting every game of his career was finally benched for the final two games against the Mavs. He was unplayable in that matchup, averaging just 6 points and 1.3 assists in 12 minutes per game for the series, which is well below his career averages. It just goes to show that in today’s NBA, even with a big three like SGA, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, you still need a PG who can do more than pass. Giddey is not a scorer or good defender despite his size, and it may be a position the Thunder have to address this offseason.
I’d say in general, the Mavs’ role players exceeded expectations. Dereck Lively, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford have all played a role in giving Dallas the defense they had lacked to go far in past playoffs, but extra kudos to Derrick Jones, who has gone from undrafted journeyman to a key starter on a championship-contending team. It’s a story Spurs fans have seen many times before, and it’s hard not to root for guys like that.
Barrington: I’m tempted to go with Darius Garland for the underachieving player, who hardly showed up against the Celtics. But I think that I’m going to point the finger at Michael Porter Jr., who did nothing to help the Nuggets repeat, and left it up to Joker (and to a lesser degree, Jamal Murray) to try to carry his team on his shoulders into the conference finals. You don’t count on a guy like him to win road games, but at least he needs to show up in home games. In general, none of the role players for the defending champs brought anything to the matchup against Minnesota, and Jokic ended up having to play 47 minutes in game seven, and just ran out of gas.
As for a player that performed above expectations? Nobody really stands out to me. There were several players who had impressive performances despite not being fully healthy. Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson definitely fit in that category. But you expect superstars to perform like superstars. Anthony Edwards, please stand up! But as a guy you didn’t expect to be great, I would probably pick Naz Reid, who really elevated his game when he had to take over during Karl-Anthony Towns’ frequent run-ins with foul trouble. He really stabilized the Timberwolves in the closing stretch of game seven when they put away the defending champions.
Douglas: I’m a glass-half-full type of guy, so I’ll start with the good. The Mavericks role players have been a revelation for Dallas and are a major reason why they are moving on. Derrick Jones Jr., PJ Washington and Derek Lively were incredible in the OKC series. They defended, knocked down shots and provided rim pressure outside of Luka and Kyrie. Those guys were considered fringe playoff rotation players at the beginning of the season and are now key pieces of the Mavericks’ title chances.
On the flip side, it’s a tough time to be a Nuggets role player. They simply needed more from Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun and the rest of the supporting cast. They sorely missed the contributions of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green from the previous title run. If Denver wants to get back to the championship, they will need to find some quality depth pieces.
Gomez: Michael Porter Jr. was so bad that Michael Malone went to Christian Braun to close games and shot 3-for-12 in Game 7. Out of all the high-profile names, he was the biggest disappointment. He had family issues that were probably weighing heavily on his mind, but he objectively underperformed and played a huge part in the Nuggets falling short.
As for who exceeded expectations, P.J. Washington shooting 47 percent from outside on over eight attempts per game is something not even the most optimistic Mavericks fan would have predicted. Washington hit plenty of big shots while also doing his thing on defense and the boards. Dallas doesn’t get past the Thunder without him. Can he stay hot from beyond the arc? Probably not, but if he does, defending Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will be much harder even for an elite defensive team like the Timberwolves.
Who do you think will make the NBA Finals?
Dubinski: Despite their tendency to get complacent, I believe the Celtics come out of the East, but the West is harder to predict. Minnesota has a huge size advantage over Dallas and are the better defensive team, but the Mavs have more players they can go to on offense. It will probably truly come down to Luka Doncic vs. Anthony Edwards, and while my gut says the Mavs prevail because they have closer to the right balance of offense and defense, if these playoffs have proven anything, is never count anyone out until it’s over.
Barrington: I think that Dallas is a much better team than they were at midseason, and will make it a series against the Timberwolves, but they won’t be able to score enough on Minnesota’s defense to advance to the finals. Luka and Kyrie will make things interesting, but the size on the Wolves will make it tough for Dallas to score, and the Mavs will have no answer for Ant.
On paper, the East looks like an easy cakewalk for the Celtics, but I wonder about their mental resiliency. The Pacers are probably the only team in the East that can match them in scoring prowess, so they can make this a fun series to watch. Boston probably wins this, but if the Pacers can shock them in the first game, then the Celtics could crack, like they did last year against the Heat. If Joe Mazzulla doesn’t have them ready in game one, watch out! An unprepared Celtics team just doesn’t seem likely to me, so I’m expecting a Timberwolves vs. Celtics NBA Finals, which I expect Boston to win in seven.
Douglas: Boston vs. Minnesota is the matchup we all deserve. The Celtics will run through the Pacers quickly, while the Wolves battle it out with the Mavs in another 7-game series. Ultimately Minnesota’s length and athleticism will prove too much for the Mavs. Boston has the scoring punch to keep up with Indy when they are hot. If Porzingis can come back in game three or four, we could see a sweep.
Gomez: The Timberwolves seem the more well-rounded team so they should come out of the West. They have the individual defenders to make life hard for the Mavericks’ stars and they do a great job of helping and scrambling back to shooters, and those closeouts could turn P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. back into the below-average three-point shooters they have been throughout their careers. In the East, the Celtics would have to shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly to not make it past a Pacers team that is good but not great. Some of the games should be fun, but I wouldn’t be shocked by a sweep.