The four questions that will decide who wins Biden vs. Trump

By David Lauter, Los Angeles Times

WASHINGTON — With a Biden vs. Trump rematch likely, polls forecast another close election.

That’s no surprise — four of the last six presidential elections have been tight — and except for a few brief stretches, Congress has also been closely divided for more than two decades.

Trying to guess who will win this far ahead of the voting is a fool’s game. But we can predict these four questions will go a long way toward determining the results.

Will voter turnout drop?

Since a low point in 1996, voter turnout in U.S. elections has generally risen as the differences between the two parties have grown. The Trump presidency put that trend into overdrive: The share of the U.S. adult population who voted in 2020 was the largest in history — roughly two-thirds of potentially eligible adults.

Because the overall turnout was so large, President Biden’s victory was also historic: In winning, he got support from a larger share of the U.S. population than President Reagan won in his landslide reelection in 1984.

But high turnout in the Trump era cuts both ways. Republican turnout soared as well. The former president inspires his supporters, enrages his foes and motivates both sides to show up.

Will that persist? So far, the evidence suggests we’re headed to a decline from the record levels of the last election. Young voters don’t seem as interested as their counterparts did in 2020. And polls show Biden suffering from soft support among Black and Latino voters.

The big questions are how much does turnout drop, where does it happen and which side is affected more.

Given the size of the coalition Biden put together in 2020, he can afford some erosion, especially in big Democratic states like California and New York — much as President Obama was able to win reelection in 2012 despite a significant decline in turnout from 2008. But Biden can’t afford to lose many voters in battleground states, several of which were close last time.

Republicans are at risk, too, however. Many of former President Trump’s older, less educated, rural supporters have spotty voting records. By contrast, the college-educated suburbanites — whose support Democrats increasingly rely on — are very persistent voters.

Generations of Democrats grew up believing that high turnout always helps their side. It’s time to retire that myth — in current American politics, high turnout is much more of a jump ball.

Will voters begin to feel better about the economy?

One of the most striking features of 2023 was the sharp divergence between the picture of the economy painted by statistics (one of the best) and the view of most Americans (one of the worst).

Theories abound over the reason for the gap — I wrote about several of the leading possibilities in November. Most guesses involve the lingering impact of the high inflation the U.S. endured in 2022 and early 2023, compounded by partisanship and the psychological trauma of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Whatever the explanation, however, the grim view of the economy has been a big part of Biden’s slump over the past year. A huge question for his reelection is whether voters will begin to feel better about the economy if inflation remains low in 2024 and the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates as expected.