The 2020 Democratic presidential primary was characterized by the enthusiasm of small-dollar donors, mostly college-educated voters who supported various candidates, including Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg, by providing financial support. However, the upcoming 2024 Republican primary is expected to be shaped by the contributions of millionaires and billionaires, who are likely to donate significant amounts of money to super PACs based on presentations and sales pitches.
These wealthy donors, predominantly men residing in New York City, Florida, and other locations, could determine which candidate emerges as the leading challenger to former President Donald Trump. Despite Trump’s strong advantage in national and early state polls, the GOP donor class, concerned about his electability, is eager to find an alternative candidate. This has led to a race among campaigns to secure funding from billionaires to support their super PACs, which raises concerns about the influence of wealthy individuals on elections and its impact on democracy.
The influence of billionaire donors and their early backing for candidates will be disclosed in the coming days as each candidate’s affiliated super PAC files midyear reports with the Federal Election Commission. Initially, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was leading the race in terms of attracting megadonors, having raised $80 million for his state account and transferred the funds to the super PAC Never Back Down. However, recent setbacks, such as staff layoffs and declining poll numbers, have created an opportunity for Senator Tim Scott to consolidate support among Republican influencers and donors seeking a non-Trump alternative. Scott, who also enjoys support from small-dollar donors, appears to be the candidate that wealthy individuals are closely considering at the moment.
Other Republican candidates also have billionaire donors supporting them. For instance, Steve Cohen, founder of S.A.C. Capital Advisors, reportedly backs New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, while Trump has longstanding support from Timothy Mellon, a businessman and heir to the Mellon banking fortune, and Linda McMahon, former head of the Small Business Administration and wife of WWE’s Vince McMahon.
One notable difference between the 2024 Republican primary and the 2020 Democratic primary is the role of super PACs. In 2020, Democratic candidates initially refrained from accepting super PAC support due to primary voters’ disapproval of the Citizens United decision that led to their creation. Instead, they focused on small-dollar fundraising. In contrast, the 2024 Republican hopefuls rely significantly on super PACs, with just four candidates (DeSantis, Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Nikki Haley) having reported raising more than $1 million from small donors by the end of June. None of these candidates received at least 50% of their funding from small donors.
Another distinction is the negative advertising conducted by super PACs. Unlike the predominantly positive ads in the 2020 Democratic primary, super PACs supporting Republican candidates have already aired negative ads targeting both Trump and DeSantis. This trend raises concerns about a potential escalation of negative campaigning within the GOP primary.
Senator Mitt Romney, who pioneered the use of single-candidate super PACs in the 2012 presidential race, recently advised GOP donors to rally behind a single candidate to defeat Trump. Super PACs have already outlined their plans for the primary, such as Never Back Down’s intention to employ over 2,500 canvassers and Trust In the Mission PAC’s $40 million ad campaign in early states. However, there are concerns that as the primary progresses, well-funded super PACs may become platforms for candidates to attack each other, potentially leading to a futile battle to establish a one-on-one matchup against Trump.
Ultimately, Republican megadonors and influencers will need to learn from the 2016 primary and support candidates who are willing to withdraw when their chances of securing the nomination become slim. Romney specifically mentioned February 26, the day after the South Carolina primary, as a suitable date for candidates to drop out.