Sunak says he believes he will win the general election despite poll projections
Rishi Sunak said he believes he will win the general election.
Asked whether he thought he would still be prime minister on Friday, the prime minister said: “Yes. I’m fighting very hard and I think people are waking up to the real danger of what a Labour government means.”
The Labour lead in the opinion polls has been 20 percentage points throughout the campaign.
The final Opinium poll for the Observer on Saturday showed Labour retained this lead over the Conservatives – the same as a week ago and enough to deliver a large House of Commons majority if replicated on Thursday.
Labour is on 40% (unchanged compared with a week ago), while the Conservatives are on 20% (also unchanged). Reform UK is up 1 point on 17%, the Liberal Democrats up 1 point on 13% and the Greens down 3 points on 6%.
🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK
Labour continue to lead by 20
· Labour 40% (n/c)
· Conservatives 20% (n/c)
· Reform 17% (+1)
· Lib Dems 13% (n/c)
· Greens 6% (-3)
· SNP 3% (n/c)
Fieldwork: 26 – 28 June. Changes from 19 – 21 June. pic.twitter.com/s3ozTKQDEj— Opinium (@OpiniumResearch) June 29, 2024
Key events
You can find out the state of the latest opinion polls in the Guardian’s tracker here:
My colleague Kiran Stacey has reported on Rishi Sunak’s interview this morning with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. The prime minister claimed the Britain was better off that it was 14 years ago and launched a defence of his party’s record with just days to go before the election.
You can read in full here:
Nigel Farage said his party Reform UK would campaign as the “leading voice of opposition” to abolish the BBC licence fee, claiming the broadcaster has “abused its position of power”.
It comes after the Reform UK leader was questioned about the state of his party, and the views expressed by some of its candidates and campaigners, by a live audience during an appearance on BBC Question Time on Friday night.
He told a rally in Birmingham: “As we’re going to be the leading voice of opposition, and I say that because the Conservative Party will be in opposition but they won’t be the opposition because they disagree with each other on virtually everything – think about it, the last four years all we’ve had are internal Tory wars.
“They stand for nothing. I was told they were a broad church. Well they’re a broad church without any religion.
“It simply doesn’t work. So we will again renew our campaign with added vigour to say that the state broadcaster has abused its position of power and we will campaign for the abolition of the BBC licence fee.”
Nigel Farage addresses Reform rally in Birmingham
Nigel Farage has told the audience of a Reform UK rally in Birmingham that Britain is in societal and cultural “decline”.
He said people “are getting poorer”, that there are “people fearful of going out at night, people scared to even go out to their local pub, knives being carried wholesale by young people in this country – so I am in no doubt we are societal decline.”
The Reform UK leader told the rally he had launched his electoral to offer an alternative to ‘slippery Sunak’ and Sir Keir Starmer who he said has “the charisma of a damp rag’.
Richard Tice said net zero policies are “making us poorer” and “the greatest act of financial self-harm ever imposed on a nation by the wallies in Westminster”.
Addressing a rally in Birmingham, the Reform UK chairman said: “Net zero is making us poorer. It’s killing our jobs. It’s killing our industries. It’s killing our economy. It’s an absolute piece of madness developed in Westminster.
“I actually believe it’s the greatest act of financial self-harm ever imposed on a nation by the wallies in Westminster.”
Michael Savage
A frantic tactical voting effort is being waged this weekend by the Lib Dems, with party officials believing that an online targeting drive could unlock up to 25 seats in the final days of campaigning.
The number of seats being targeted by Ed Davey’s party has expanded over the campaign, as a combination of the Tories losing ground to Reform UK and a stunt-filled Lib Dem campaign have opened up more constituencies. Some of the most optimistic polls even have the Lib Dems becoming the official opposition, should a Tory meltdown materialise – an issue that some senior Conservatives complain has not been scrutinised enough.
However, the Lib Dems are spending the final days of the campaign targeting about 250,000 mainly Labour-inclined voters who they believe are key in a swathe of seats across the south of England. Theresa May’s former seat of Maidenhead is among them, along with the likes of Didcot and Wantage, Mid Sussex, Eastleigh, Bicester and Woodstock, Frome and East Somerset and Torbay.
Senior Lib Dem figures have been surprised by the lack of attention the Tories have paid to Davey’s party, given they believe that some polls have them winning over 50 seats on a good night. “They are fighting on three fronts – Reform UK, Labour and us,” said one party source. “They don’t have the bandwidth to do everything.” They are expecting a Tory ad spending blitz in the 48 hours before polling day.
Labour’s campaign coordinator says he wants the Sun to endorse the party next
We reported earlier that the Sunday Times has endorsed the Labour party ahead of the 4 July general election, which Keir Starmer is widely expected to win, perhaps in a landslide bigger than Tony Blair’s in 1997.
The paper is owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News UK and has endorsed the Conservative party in every election since 2005.
Labour’s national campaign coordinator, Pat McFadden, has told LBC that the party wants the Sun’s endorsement next.
The Sun – which famously endorsed Blair for three consecutive elections (1997, 2001 and 2005) – is still boycotted in much of Merseyside, a Labour stronghold, due to its false reporting on the 1989 Hillsborough stadium disaster.
McFadden told LBC’s Lewis Goodall:
We always welcome endorsements, I think they matter. We have changed, broadened our appeal. You can’t win by just speaking to people who already agree with you … I would like the Sun to endorse us but it’s a decision for them.
When running for party leader in 2020, Keir Starmer told an audience in Liverpool that he would boycott the Sun during the leadership contest. “This city has been wounded by the media – the Sun … I certainly won’t be giving an interview to the Sun during the course of this campaign,” he said.
Once he became leader, he adopted a more welcoming stance towards the outlet. In 2021, Starmer angered many Merseyside Labour MPs by writing an article in the newspaper. Since then he has made regular appearances in the Sun and has agreed to a live interview on its YouTube channel this month.
There are more quotes from John Swinney from his interview with Sky News’ Trevor Philips earlier (see post at 11.04 for his other comments).
The Scottish first minister said there was “nothing that can be done” about postal votes that have not yet arrived for voters who are now overseas.
The SNP leader said he had “made it very clear about the fact some people will be disfranchised” if their postal votes cannot be filled out and returned on time.
Edinburgh city council and Fife council set up emergency centres where residents who have yet to receive their ballot can have one reissued, or even cast their vote ahead of 4 July.
The Electoral Management Board for Scotland has already said there have been “many difficulties experienced with the delivery of postal votes” across the country.
Local councils are responsible for sending postal ballot forms to voters. Completed postal votes must have reached councils by 10pm on polling day, 4 July. They can be returned by post or handed in at council offices and can also be dropped at the correct polling station on election day.
Swinney said on Sunday there had been “significant reports of people who were trying to vote by post who had applied properly for a postal vote before the deadline of 19 June”.
He continued:
Unfortunately, there is nothing that can be done. They have to be here to be able to exercise their postal vote, if it’s been delivered to the house, or if there is an alternative arrangement in place.
There are no other proxy arrangements that can be put in place, but I think it’s illustrative of the fact there was no thought given to summer school holidays.
Swinney added:
I warned when the election was called that it was going to take place during the Scottish school summer holidays and many of our schools broke up for the summer last week.
Those postal ballots have not arrived with people and some of them have now left the country, and they have been disfranchised because of the timing of the election, which is something I deeply regret.
I warned about the decision to have the election during the school holidays and welcome the fact that a number of local authorities in Scotland have taken emergency measures to establish centres which could enable people to exercise their postal vote.
Here is a YouGov poll showing how Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer compare on key personal attributes, such as trustworthiness and likeability:
How do Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer compare on key personal attributes? (net scores shown)
Competent: Sunak -38 / Starmer ±0
Decisive: Sunak -34 / Starmer -24
Trustworthy: Sunak -53 / Starmer -20
Strong: Sunak -53 / Starmer -18
Likeable: Sunak -36 / Starmer -15… pic.twitter.com/SORm5paphC— YouGov (@YouGov) June 30, 2024
Sunday Times endorses Labour ahead of general election
The Sunday Times newspaper has endorsed the Labour party for the election, saying in an editorial that the country needs a “radical reset” after 14 years of Conservative rule.
The newspaper, owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News UK, has backed the Conservatives at every election since 2005 but said on Sunday that the country could not carry on with what it said was now an “exhausted” party.
“We believe it is now the right time for Labour to be entrusted with restoring competence to government,” the editorial said. “There comes a time when change is the only option.”
The Sunday Times said the period since 2016 – the year of the Brexit referendum – had been defined by political chaos which had distracted Conservative leaders from the issues which matter most to voters – healthcare, schools and the economy.
Many other Sunday newspapers have declared who they think should be in Downing Street after this week’s general election. Here is a look of some of the main front pages/editorial opinions:
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The Daily Record last week announced it was backing Labour for the first time in 14 years.
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The Mail on Sunday comments: “It is not all over yet. Vote Conservative on Thursday and we may yet escape a long and punishing season of hard Labour.” It also states: “For all their faults, the Tories are what stand between us and Sir Keir’s leaden wokery, his green zealotry, his instinctive desire to tax savers, his feeble opaqueness on mass immigration, his embedded sympathy for the Remainer cause, and his party which, for all its makeovers and tweakments, remains what it has always been, a machine for spending other people’s money until it runs out.”
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The Sunday Telegraph’s front page headline is a warning from Rishi Sunak that Labour “will bankrupt every generation”. Its editorial is headlined “Vote Tory to save Britain from Labour”.
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On its front page the Observer states that voters have the chance “not just to evict one of the worst governments this country has ever endured but to replace it with a Labour administration characterised by integrity and a respect for public office, an understanding of ordinary people’s lives, and an honest desire to make Britain a fairer and greener place”.
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The Sunday Express tells voters they are not only deciding if Britain needs change but also whether Keir Starmer is allowed to deliver that change. It adds: “If you have any doubt he is the right person, the only sensible option is to vote Conservative.” The paper’s front page reads: ‘Starmer to wreck Britain in 100 days’.
Michael Savage
A Conservative cabinet minister who admitted placing three bets on the date of the general election is in line for a peerage as part of Rishi Sunak’s final honours list, the Observer has been told.
Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary who stood down as an MP when the election was called, had been considered for inclusion in a dissolution honours list compiled in recent weeks, according to sources familiar with the process. The list is set to be published soon after Thursday’s vote.
Jack said he had placed three bets on the election date – one of which was successful – as the row over election betting engulfed the campaign last week.
He made clear that he had not breached any rules and was not being investigated by the Gambling Commission. The watchdog is examining betting by Westminster figures on the date of the election.
Keir Starmer pledges to “relight the fire” of optimism and hope among the British people – and rekindle their faith in politicians as public servants – if they come out in sufficient numbers and vote for a Labour government in Thursday’s general election.
Writing exclusively for the Observer with just days to go until polling day, the Labour leader says that after 14 years of the Tories “serving themselves”, restoring the “bond of respect between people and politics” will be the precondition for a Labour government’s success.
Striking a serious note and avoiding any hint of triumphalism, he writes:
I am sure some people would prefer a less sober message. But the Tories have kicked the hope out of people so thoroughly, to expect a chorus of optimism would be like scattering seeds on stony ground.
I believe in hope, and believe we can inspire it again. Showing that it is a privilege to serve is a precondition for it.
Starmer insists that if people choose him as their prime minister, then Labour will embark on a “national mission” to create wealth in every community and repair public services “with an immediate cash injection” alongside “urgent reforms”.
You can read the full story by my colleagues, Toby Helm, Michael Savage and James Tapper, here:
Sinn Féin wants to maximise the number of “progressive” MPs returned from Northern Ireland in this year’s general election, vice-president Michelle O’Neill has said.
The PA news agency reports:
The party is running 14 candidates, standing aside in East Belfast, North Down and Strangford where Alliance is challenging unionists, as well as South Belfast where the SDLP is hoping to return to the green benches.
Ms O’Neill said it had not been an easy decision to stand aside in the four constituencies but said the party wants to see a “rejection” of those who had “propped up” the last Conservative government.
It comes after the DUP maintained a close relationship with the Conservatives, including taking part in a confidence and supply deal in 2017 following the return of a hung parliament.
“We want this election to return the maximum number of progressive candidates,” Ms O’Neill told the PA news agency.
“The maximum number of MPs that want to make politics work here at home, the maximum number of MPs that reject Tory austerity and the cuts that have decimated our public services for the past 14 years, and also to reject those people that actually propped up the Tories throughout that tenure, so that we set aside in those constituencies to actually make space for that progressive candidate to come through.”
Sinn Féin won seven seats at the last general election in 2019. This year, Ms O’Neill said the party is hoping to maintain the seven and potentially build its vote.
The party is targeting gains including attempting to win Foyle over SDLP leader Colum Eastwood.
This general election comes after a disappointing showing for Sinn Féin in the Republic of Ireland where it was widely seen as the government in waiting, but suffered a major setback when its support in the European and local government elections dropped well below what was projected.
Scotland’s first minister, John Swinney, has indicated that the SNP would continue to press for a second referendum on Scottish independence even in the event of significant electoral losses at the election.
He told Sky News:
The issues that people are concerned about in Scotland today – the cost of living crisis, the cuts in public services and our public spending, the implications of Brexit – these are all decisions that were arrived at [in] Westminster.
If Scotland was an independent country, we could take a different course.
The SNP leader added that the economic impact of Brexit amounted to “a very significant change in circumstances that I believe alone merits the right of the people of Scotland to decide their own future”.
Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s leader in Westminster, meanwhile, told Laura Kuenssberg’s Sunday politics programme that if Scotland were independent, it would be able to invest in its own economy and in the transition to net zero, for example.
The SNP’s long-held policy – agreed at its conference last year – is that a majority of seats would be a mandate to begin negotiations with the UK government for another independence referendum.
It is possible for the SNP to be the largest party in Scotland but not have a majority of the 57 seats. After a huge swing to Labour in the past 18 months, the SNP is teetering on the brink. Small local or national tremors in the final days of the campaign could determine the fate of dozens of SNP MPs.
Farage says the Reform UK activist filmed making racist comments about Rishi Sunak is an actor
Nigel Farage, the Reform party leader, is asked about racist comments made by Reform UK canvasser Andrew Parker, which Farage claims was a set up. He suggests Parker, who made racist comments about Rishi Sunak, was an actor.
Farage told Trevor Phillips on Sky News:
He is an actor, a rather well spoken actor but he has an alter ego. He does what he calls ‘rough speaking’. I was there working in the office in Essex, when he turned up, and he was from the moment he walked through the room like a version of Alf Garnett (a character in the British sitcom ‘Till Death Us Do Part).
Now I didn’t know this was an act. It was an act from the start to the end. He spent time with the two Channel 4 undercover reporters in the office …
He tried to get our canvassers to say nasty, racist things, which, of course, they did not. And then he comes out with this, and literally, Alf Garnett stream, including all mosques should be turned into Wetherspoon’s. This was an act from start to finish. It was a deliberate attempt to derail our campaign.
Trevor Phillips asks Farage, who said he had fought hard to drive the BNP out as an electoral force, how many people in Reform he has had to “disown so far”. Farage says “perhaps a dozen”.
“I have inherited a start up. I have not even been doing this a month and I have got some people there that i rather were not there and they wont be after next Thursday at all,” Farage said.
Sunak says he believes he will win the general election despite poll projections
Rishi Sunak said he believes he will win the general election.
Asked whether he thought he would still be prime minister on Friday, the prime minister said: “Yes. I’m fighting very hard and I think people are waking up to the real danger of what a Labour government means.”
The Labour lead in the opinion polls has been 20 percentage points throughout the campaign.
The final Opinium poll for the Observer on Saturday showed Labour retained this lead over the Conservatives – the same as a week ago and enough to deliver a large House of Commons majority if replicated on Thursday.
Labour is on 40% (unchanged compared with a week ago), while the Conservatives are on 20% (also unchanged). Reform UK is up 1 point on 17%, the Liberal Democrats up 1 point on 13% and the Greens down 3 points on 6%.
🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK
Labour continue to lead by 20
· Labour 40% (n/c)
· Conservatives 20% (n/c)
· Reform 17% (+1)
· Lib Dems 13% (n/c)
· Greens 6% (-3)
· SNP 3% (n/c)
Fieldwork: 26 – 28 June. Changes from 19 – 21 June. pic.twitter.com/s3ozTKQDEj— Opinium (@OpiniumResearch) June 29, 2024