Chennai: With the AIADMK boycotting the Vikravandi bypoll, the ruling DMK has won the bypoll with a sizeable margin of 67,757 votes securing about 1.24 lakh votes of the 1.95 lakh votes polled.
DMK’s Anniyur Siva won the assembly seat after defeating C. Anbumani, vice president of Bharatiya Janata Party ally Pattali Makkal Katchi, and K. Abinaya of the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK).
In the 2021 assembly elections, DMK’s N. Pugazhenthi won Vikravandi seat by a margin of 9,573 votes, securing 93,730 votes as against AIADMK’s and NTK’s 84,157 votes and 8,216 votes respectively.
A closer look at the number of votes each party secured in the bypoll indicates that a chunk of AIADMK votes may have shifted to DMK.
With 82.48 percent voter turnout, it was evident that AIADMK’s decision to stay away from the bypoll did not help the Opposition in Tamil Nadu.
Asked what they made of the outcome of the bypoll, political analysts said the DMK’s win surpassed all calculations of caste and party affiliations, and marks the beginning of a status quo in the state’s politics.
“With this, the fight for second position in state politics would continue until 2026 assembly elections as well, unless the Opposition racks up anti-incumbency at a huge level,” Chennai-based political commentator N. Sathiya Moorthy told ThePrint.
Political analysts also underline that most AIADMK voters neither boycotted the bypoll nor endorsed BJP-ally PMK as an alternative to AIADMK. The PMK candidate was able to secure only 56,296 votes and the NTK candidate only 10,602 votes in the bypoll held on 10 July.
Maintaining that a chunk of AIADMK votes may have shifted to the DMK, political commentator Raveendran Duraisamy said the outcome of the bypoll was the result of caste-based polarisation on the ground in favour of the DMK. “A caste consolidation has happened on the ground on the lines of Vanniyars vs non-Vanniyars. This favoured the DMK to a large extent once again, proving that DMK is unstoppable,” said Duraisamy.
Celebrating the bypoll victory, Chief Minister and DMK president M.K. Stalin was seen distributing sweets to party workers at Anna Arivalayam (DMK HQ) in Chennai. “The people of Vikravandi have shown that the Sun cannot be hidden even if they stitch a blanket with as many lies as possible,” Stalin wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter).
எத்தனை பொய்களை ஒன்றாகத் தைத்துப் போர்வை நெய்தாலும், சூரியனை ஒருபோதும் மறைக்க முடியாது என்று விக்கிரவாண்டி மக்கள் உணர்த்தியுள்ளனர்.
அண்ணா அறிவாலயத்தில் பொங்கும் மகிழ்ச்சி தமிழ்நாடெங்கும் எதிரொலிக்கட்டும்!#ByElection #VikravandiByPolls pic.twitter.com/82l75SMeUg
— M.K.Stalin (@mkstalin) July 13, 2024
DMK organising secretary R.S. Bharathi added that the bypoll win comes amidst two challenging situations — the hooch tragedy in Kallakurichi and the murder of state BSP chief Armstrong in Chennai.
Tamil Nadu BJP president K. Annamalai, however, dismissed the suggestion that the outcome of the Vikravandi bypoll is a reflection of the sentiments of people across the state. “As we have seen in the past, as far as Tamil Nadu is concerned, 87 percent bye-elections would favour the ruling party in the state. Though we accept the bye-election result, it does not mean that it is reflecting the sentiments of the people across the state. The results would be completely different in the assembly elections,” he said.
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Vikravandi bypoll & quota for Vanniyars
When AIADMK announced it was boycotting the Vikravandi bypoll, the move was seen by political analysts as an attempt by the party to shy away from yet another electoral defeat and to indirectly send a message to the PMK with an eye on the 2026 assembly polls.
But, it now looks like the AIADMK has no justification for its decision to boycott the bypolls, said Moorthy. “It is understandable that Edappadi K. Palaniswami could not openly support the PMK or its candidates. But, if that is the case, giving the votes to the DMK is not a wise decision. However, this has not changed any equation in the state,” he told ThePrint.
Explaining caste equations at play, Duraisamy said, “All non-Vanniyars in the constituency rallied behind DMK, since PMK is contesting on the opposite side in place of AIADMK. Among Vanniyars, a section that earlier voted for AIADMK shifted to DMK because of its stand on the 10.5 percent quota for Vanniyars in Most Backward Classes (category).”
The then AIADMK government had in 2021 enacted the Special Reservation Act, granting 10.5 percent internal reservation for Vanniyars within the existing 20 percent quota for Most Backward Classes.
Later that same year, the Madras High Court struck down the law as “unconstitutional” on the grounds that the state government failed to justify the policy with relevant data to support its claim that Vanniyars were relatively more socially and economically backward than other MBCs. The high court order was upheld by the Supreme Court in March 2022.
Looking at the issue in the context of the just concluded bypoll which saw AIADMK’s Vanniyar votes shift to DMK, Duraisamy said the AIADMK has been struggling to take a stand on the issue, unlike the DMK or the NDA.
“PMK, which is part of the NDA, is demanding that the DMK government give 10.5 percent reservation (to Vanniyars), which gives it mileage. Stalin says he is ready to bring it as soon as the Centre takes a call on caste-based census. But, Palaniswami does not have a stand on this issue,” he said.
Asked to comment, AIADMK leader D. Jayakumar said the party has always been a proponent of social justice and a quota for Vanniyars. “It was the AIADMK government that brought the Special Reservation Act. But, the DMK government did not handle it well in the courts,” he claimed.
Way forward for AIADMK & NDA
Against the backdrop of the just concluded bypoll, political analysts said the fight for the second position in the state would continue until the 2026 assembly elections.
According to Moorthy, AIADMK and BJP-led NDA do not stand a chance in the state if they continue to contest elections independent of each other. “Even to give the DMK a decent fight in the 2026 assembly polls, they need to join and rake up huge anti-incumbency in the run-up to the election.”
However, Moorthy also felt that the AIADMK-BJP alliance might not materialise as long as Annamalai enjoys the support of the BJP’s central leadership. “If the alliance happens, Palaniswami will demand that BJP declare him NDA’s chief minister candidate, which state BJP under the leadership of Annamalai may not accept. Chances of them joining together looks so thin. If they don’t join hands, the PMK joining hands with the AIADMK also does not seem like a possibility in the near future,” he said.
Duraisamy added that one is yet to see whether the 2026 assembly polls will be a DMK vs AIADMK fight or a fight between INDIA bloc vs NDA.
Tamil Nadu-based political parties are not willing to join hands with AIADMK or BJP since they have nothing to offer, he said. “DMK has been winning election after election and has not let down its alliance partners. In fact, they become stronger day after day. If someone joins DMK, they can offer the party an MLA or MP post, but, AIADMK could offer only the return of the deposit amount paid while contesting the election.”
He also referred to Puthiya Tamilagam leader K. Krishnasamy’s condemnation of NTK leader ‘Sattai’ Durai Murugan for making ‘derogatory remarks’ against former chief minister late M. Karunanidhi.
Puthiya Tamilagam, an Ambedkarite party dominated by Devendrakula Vellalars — a Dalit sub-caste — with its presence mainly in the southern part of the state. It had contested the Lok Sabha polls as an AIADMK ally.
Contrasting the AIADMK’s ability to keep its flock together with that of the DMK, which came under fire for the Kallakurichi hooch tragedy and the murder of the state BSP chief, Moorthy said the Stalin-led party’s strategy to keep the alliance intact and reassure voters ensured its bypoll win.
Thol Thirumavalavan, leader of DMK ally Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), said Saturday that the bypoll result was proof that the people of Tamil Nadu are with the DMK and its allies. “The victory has been possible despite few making the hooch tragedy into a political issue,” he said.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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