A trader works, as a screen displays a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 13, 2023.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
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What you need to know today
The bottom line
Wall Street is bracing for a key inflation gauge that will affect investors’ view on interest rates.
All eyes will be on the personal consumption expenditures reading for January out today — the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator. Investors are hoping to see data that signals inflation is finally easing.
Fed officials have made it clear they want to see more evidence of disinflation before committing to rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman signaled caution this week, saying upside risks to inflation linger that could stall progress or even cause price pressures to reaccelerate.
“My baseline outlook continues to be that inflation will decline further with the policy rate held steady,” Bowman said Tuesday. “I will remain cautious in my approach to considering future changes in the stance of policy.”
This PCE report comes on the heels of hotter-than-expected consumer and producer prices that dealt a one-two punch to markets. And Fed watchers expect the trend to continue, with PCE also coming in slightly hot.
“The core personal consumption expenditure index is supposed to uptick slightly and that could cause the Fed to hold off on cutting interest rates till June,” said Louis Navellier, chairman and founder of Navellier & Associates, in a commentary.
He added the PCE data “will be a big deal” for Wall Street. “We’ll see how it affects the bond market and investor perceptions.”
A disappointing reading could reinforce investor fears the Fed may further delay rate cuts and interest rates could stay higher for longer.