California Gov. Gavin Newsom never said he was running for president in 2024. But it sure looked like he was posturing for it, just in case.
He flew to Israel after the Hamas attack in October and met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, then traveled on to China to meet with President Xi Jinping. He debated conservative firebrand Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in November, then sat down for a no-holds-barred interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity. He called for a constitutional amendment to enshrine gun safety laws and became a leading national voice against restrictive abortion laws.
But when that just-in-case moment shook the political world Sunday with President Biden’s historic withdrawal from the race for re-election, it was not Newsom’s moment after all.
“Sure, it was about running for president while not running for president, but he was not going to leapfrog his political competition in the form of Kamala Harris, the vice president of the United States,” Sonoma State political science professor David McCuan said Monday. “It was never going to happen.”
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After Biden’s disastrous June debate performance, Newsom maintained his support for Biden’s re-election, and last week said that if Biden did withdraw, he would support Harris. Newsom and Harris have been political allies and friends for years. Newsom was elected mayor of San Francisco in 2004, the same year Harris was elected district attorney there.
Still, he left a curious 5-hour gap between the time he issued a statement praising Biden after his withdrawal from the race and his endorsement of Harris, enough room for speculation there might be other ambitions afoot. Newsom’s personal spokesman, Nathan Click, pointed to Newsom’s statement late Sunday saying “no one is better to prosecute the case against Donald Trump’s dark vision and guide our country in a healthier direction” than Harris. And when it comes to Newsom campaigning for her, “yes, absolutely,” Click said, “he will hit the trail.”
It didn’t help, though, that U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the powerful former House Speaker, who last week suggested an open, competitive convention if Biden dropped out, waited until Monday morning to endorse Harris.
But as support has mounted for Harris, especially from would-be rival Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, the idea that Newsom or any other aspiring candidate would compete for the nomination at next month’s Democratic National Convention were kiboshed.
The fundamental hesitation, however — and grist for plenty of Democratic angst — is whether Harris has a better chance of beating former President Trump than any other potential candidates.
If the election really comes down to independent voters in Rust Belt swing states, would they really choose Harris or Newsom — both liberal California Democrats with deep roots in a city that has been the scourge of GOP rants about homelessness and drug abuse?
Pelosi, in her endorsement of Harris “with immense pride and limitless optimism” Monday, said she has “full confidence that she will lead us to victory in November.”
Pastor Amos Brown of Third Baptist Church of San Francisco said Harris has national appeal despite San Francisco’s woes, especially among Black women who are already coalescing around her candidacy, a constituency Newsom has struggled to attract.
Nonetheless, pitting Newsom against Harris is wrongheaded, Brown said. He has seen the strength of their friendship back when he supported both of their candidacies, for mayor and district attorney, in the early 2000s. Harris is a member of his church. Newsom invited Brown to deliver the prayer in Sacramento at his inaugurations.
“They’re not adversarial like that,” Brown said. “They’re two decent people. The issue isn’t about whose time it is. The issue is the president has spoken.”
For Newsom to be in the running for the Democratic nomination now, several factors would have had to come to fruition, said Bill Whalen, distinguished policy fellow at the Hoover Institution.
“The only way Newsom could have pulled this off is if he had the support of the president, which he didn’t, if he had the support of Nancy Pelosi, who’s now behind Harris, and if the other governors formed a phalanx behind him,” Whalen said. “But none of those actors were at play.”
Because of his close ties to Harris, however, if she wins, Newsom, 56, who will finish his last term as governor in 2026, might land a role in her administration, in a cabinet post or as an ambassador. But he won’t be her pick for vice president.
The U.S. Constitution’s 12th Amendment forbids delegates from voting for a presidential and vice presidential nominee from the same state. Although Harris now lives primarily in Washington, D.C., her official residence where she’s registered to vote is in the southern California city of Brentwood, where she moved after marrying entertainment lawyer Doug Emhoff in 2014.
Besides, Harris might be more likely to choose a governor from a swing state, like Shapiro from Pennsylvania or Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, to appeal to more voters, Whalen said.
Still, with polls showing Trump ahead in key swing states, Harris will be facing headwinds to ascend to the presidency. Many voters blame Democrats, who held the presidency for 12 of the past 16 years, for the stubborn issues of inflation and immigration and homelessness and crime in inner cities.
“So if you’re Gavin, you’re playing for, well, what if she doesn’t win this time? Will there be a possible future for me next time?” said Stanford political science professor Bruce Cain. “Even then, that’s uncertain.”
Newsom might not have been the best Democrat to face Trump, anyway, Cain said, especially on moral high grounds. In 2007, when Newsom was single, he had an affair with his campaign manager’s wife.
But Newsom’s international travels, charisma and rising national profile will serve him well as the 2028 election cycle approaches, Cain said.
“He’s savvy enough to know this is not his moment,” Cain said. “But he’s smart enough to know, he’ll have his moment.”
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