ISTANBUL — Much of the Gaza Strip lies in ruins, with its people pushed from their homes by Israeli bombardment and the death toll climbing ever higher.
But Hamas, which has ruled Gaza for 16 years, is still reaping benefits from its surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7. It is regarded as the only Palestinian faction to squeeze concessions from Israel in many years. It has thrown a bloody wrench into Israel’s plans to improve relations with its Arab neighbors and forced the Palestinian issue back onto the agendas of world leaders.
Two months into the war, despite vows by Israeli officials to destroy Hamas, Israel has yet to kill its top leaders, free the remaining 137 hostages Hamas holds or provide convincing evidence that it can achieve its goal of eliminating Hamas without an astronomical human cost.
In Hamas’ cynical calculation, the loftiness of Israel’s aims is a plus. While sticking to its long-term goal of destroying the Jewish state, Hamas can declare victory merely by surviving to fight another day.
“There is always going to be an advantage that an unconventional force will have, particularly if it is as ruthless as Hamas and doesn’t really care about the damage to the local civilians,” said Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a Middle East policy analyst who grew up in Gaza. “Israel is going to be stuck in this unwinnable war.”
What exactly Israel can achieve remains an open question. But simply prosecuting the war can, over time, damage Israel’s economy and international standing, while encouraging a new generation of Palestinians to hate Israel — all benefits for Hamas.
The war has been catastrophic for Gaza’s 2.2 million people. About 85% have fled their homes and now face a growing challenge to find food. More than 15,000 people have been killed, more than two-thirds of them women and children, according to the territory’s health authorities.
The war has taken a toll on Hamas, too. The group has largely abandoned governance in Gaza, leaving the strip’s people to fend for themselves.
“There is a lot of horror around the response, but despite that, Hamas is now undoubtedly the leader of Palestinian nationalism,” said Abdaljawad Hamayel, a lecturer at Birzeit University in the occupied West Bank. “It is now the one holding the cards.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.