Fears about artificial intelligence leading to job losses have spread in recent months, but other economic factors may be much bigger risks.
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Fears about artificial intelligence-powered technologies and tools taking over work currently done by humans have intensified since ChatGPT went viral late last year.
As it soared in popularity, the capabilities and potential of AI became increasingly clear and more well known among the public. Alongside this, a debate has erupted over how the tech might impact people’s careers.
And while experts say that AI will undoubtedly have an impact on jobs and at least partially automate them, they also point out that technological advancements often create new roles.
How concerned workers should really be is therefore still unclear. And technological developments like the growth of A.I. might not even be the biggest factor behind jobs disappearing in the future, according to a new HSBC report.
Using data from the World Economic Forum’s “Report on Jobs 2023,” HSBC notes that just four macroeconomic trends are expected to lead to the displacement of jobs.
The most common factor companies expect to lead to the loss of jobs is slower economic growth.
Indeed, just last month the World Bank said it expected the global economy to grow at a much slower rate than last year with 2.1% expected for 2023 compared to 3.1% last year.
“The challenges are clear – weaker economic growth and general shortages in supply or demand mean that many firms expect to operate with fewer workers,” analysts at HSBC said in the report.
“But it’s important to remember that not all changes in the economy are expected to mean fewer workers,” it added. Companies expect for example the green transition and use of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards to lead to more jobs.
Tech’s impact on jobs
The “increased adoption of new technologies” is another pattern that companies expect to lead to job creation — and AI is part of this. A net share of over 20% of companies expect AI to add jobs rather than replace them, according to the World Economic Forum’s data.
Just two tech-related factors are expected to lead to roles becoming redundant: the emergence of both humanoid and non-humanoid robots.
“While AI gets most of the attention nowadays, it’s worth fully considering the impact that a wide range of technologies could have on the labour market,” HSBC said.
Especially when it comes to technology, the effect of new developments may also be broader than jobs simply being replaced.
“The question is whether we can have enough workers and the right skills of workers to fill these new needs,” HSBC added.
Alongside slower economic growth leading to the loss of jobs, HSBC identified supply shortages and rising costs for businesses, the rising cost of living for consumers and ongoing impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.
The findings come as inflation on both a consumer and wholesale level remains high in many countries around the world, despite some indication that pressures from rising prices may be easing. The most recent U.S. consumer and producer price index reports came in lower than expected, with the consumer price index hitting the lowest level since March 2021 on an annual basis in June — but issues persist.