The revenue is predicted to grow by up to 18% year-on-year, although there are mixed estimates regarding the profit. While some analysts anticipate a profit growth of up to 18% YoY, others forecast a decline of up to 7%.
The company has already reported a consolidated sales volume growth of 20% year-on-year to 29.96 mt for the first quarter, driven by strong growth in April-May 2023 and seasonal tailwinds.
Domestic grey and white cement sales volumes grew by 20% and 11% year-on-year, respectively, while capacity utilization stood at 90% for the quarter.
EBITDA is expected to decline in the first quarter due to weak cement realizations.
In the preceding March quarter, net profit fell by 36% to Rs 1,666 crore, while revenue from operations rose by 18% to Rs 18,562 crore.
Here’s what brokerages expect from Ultratech Q1:
ICICI Securities
UltraTech Cement has already reported a volume growth of 20% for Q1FY24. However, we expect EBITDA to dip by 3% year-on-year and decrease by 9% quarter-on-quarter with only partial respite from high fuel costs.
Axis Securities
The brokerage expects revenue growth to be higher due to higher, but gross margins to be lower due to easing in fuel costs.
“EBITDA margin is expected to be marginally lower YoY but higher QoQ, owing to higher volume and easing in cost pressure. PAT is expected to be higher due to higher revenue and lower costs YoY. EBITDA/tonne is expected to be slightly lower YoY but higher QoQ on the back of lower costs and higher volume,” it said.
Kotak Institutional Equities
We estimate blended realizations to stay flat qoq, led by muted price hikes during the quarter. We estimate costs/ton to decline marginally on a sequential basis, mainly due to lower power-fuel costs, although this is offset by lower operating leverage on a sequential basis.
We estimate cement EBITDA/ton to improve marginally to Rs 1,065/ton (-14.6% YoY, +0.6% qoq) due to net lower costs.
Emkay
Volumes increased by 20% YoY, while cement realization is estimated to decline by 4% YoY, albeit having stayed broadly flat QoQ.
Total cost/ton should decline by 2% YoY. As a result, blended EBITDA/ton is expected to decline by 11% YoY to Rs 1,100.
YES Securities
Double-digit volume growth year-on-year will drive revenue growth by 15% despite NSR moderation. EBITDA/te is projected to reach +1100/te with the easing of power and fuel costs in this quarter.
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