Blue Jays need significant reversal in form to return to contention

Article content

Oh, how the mighty have fallen?

Article content

Of all the descriptors for the early season under-achievement of the Blue Jays, this doesn’t exactly fit, does it? For such a tumble to happen, after all, wouldn’t you need to reach a certain point of elevation that is well beyond expectation?

Article content

Still, the fact that in just over two short years the team has moved from perceived serious contenders to win the American League East, to a team that needed to grind to be a playoff team in 2023, to now being in search of the means to a drastic turnaround to rescue its season has been quite a wild and disappointing ride.

After a 17-20 start, one afforded a temporary break from the gloom after a desperately needed win in Philadelphia on Wednesday followed by a day off Thursday, the Jays record is below even the most pessimistic of projections for manager John Schneider’s team.

Article content

Article content

As noted baseball stats website FanGraphs declares, their current form and future schedule projects the Jays as a decided long shot just to return to baseball’s playoffs.

So even with the bulk of the season still in front of them, the struggles have led to all sorts of speculation — some ridiculous, some conjecture and some rooted in fact-based predictions.

Who would have thought, for instance, that a team with a payroll in the $230-million US range, would even be mentioned as a potential seller this July?

While it’s still a stretch to imagine that being the case, what choice would general manager Ross Atkins and club president Mark Shapiro have if things spiral further over the next couple of months?

Like the team itself, there are so many questions and, to date, so few answers.

Article content

High on the list of the most intriguing realities of this team — and thus the biggest cause for worry — is where will the improvement come from?

The signs of hope for ascent have been so few and feeble that it’s difficult to get bullish, even for the most optimistic of supporters.

With that record, the Jays will need to go 72-53 just to get to the 89 wins that allowed them to get a road wild-card date last season. Thus, it’s clearly not just required that they play marginally better than .500 ball the rest of the way.

So where, then?

Will improvement come from the largely underwhelming offence, a team that to date is performing worse than the under-achieving bunch of 2023?

Sure, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is showing modest signs of snapping out of his funk and it’s impossible to fathom that Bo Bichette will be a sub-.200 hitter (currently .191) for much longer.

Article content

But, realistically, what prospects are there for George Springer (currently hitting .206) to return to one of the most reliable leadoff hitters in the game and where is there anything else in the order that screams ’emerging power?’

Will the improvements come from starting pitching? I suppose it’s possible, but the premise of Atkins’ off-season strategy seemed to be that Jays arms would at least match the performance of the previous year. That was always a brazenly tall ask, obviously, though despite some wobbles from Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, the rotation still is a strength, albeit one inexplicably still without a proven fifth starter.

How about the bullpen? Here’s one area we would expect to see improvement, pending the return to health (and then form) of Chad Green and Yimi Garcia and a fix of whatever the heck is hindering Erik Swanson.

Article content

Still, inconsistency from Tim Mayza has made him a less-reliable lefty reliever to this point and Nate Pearson continues to struggle. As well, it’s fair to say we’ve yet to see closer Jordan Romano be at his shut-down best.

With all of these tumultuous parts in mind, it was wise of manager Schneider to recently shift the narrative from “it’s gonna happen” to “it better happen soon.”

Look, as disastrous as the Jays season has gone (relative to talent, payroll and expectation) it is still salvageable.

We’ve yet to reach the quarter mark of the achingly long 162-game season and, with the bonus cheapie wild-card spots available, recent history has shown us that teams can come from out of the clouds and sneak into a spot.

Article content

The stats-based projections, meanwhile, paint a rather stark picture of the task ahead, one that doesn’t get any easier with a three-game home stand against the surging Minnesota Twins followed by three in Baltimore against the reigning AL East champion Orioles.

According to Fangraphs, the Jays odds to make the post-season have dipped to just 25.2%, making them essentially small sample size non-contenders.

Based on strength of schedule and performance to date, FanGraphs sees modest improvement in the Jays with a 65-60 record the rest of the way to finish 82-80. That would make them the 15th-best team in baseball and surely out of the playoffs.

More FanGraphs numbers: The Jays are pegged with a 1.2% chance to win the World Series and a 2.3% shot at winning the division.

Other than a talking point, the numbers are largely meaningless, as we’ve noted. But recent history also suggests that the Jays are a team in regression — and not just for the opening stretch of the 2024 season.

If that doesn’t change soon, things will get interesting for the same group that rebuilt a stadium and never imagined having to rebuild its primary tenant before the dust even settled.

Article content