The report ‘Global Drought Snapshot’ was released by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in collaboration with the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA) at COP28 at Dubai on Friday.
UNCCD is one of three conventions originated at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The other two address climate change (UNFCCC) and biodiversity (UN CBD).
UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw said,“Unlike other disasters droughts happen silently often going unnoticed and failing to provoke an immediate public and political response. This silent devastation perpetuates a cycle of neglect, leaving affected populations to bear the burden in isolation.”
“The Global Drought Snapshot report speaks volumes about the urgency of this crisis and building global resilience to it. With the frequency and severity of drought events increasing, as reservoir levels dwindle and crop yields decline, as we continue to lose biological diversity and famines spread, transformational change is needed.”
The drought data pointed towards the following grim statistics:
- 15–20% population of China faces more frequent moderate-to-severe droughts within this century.
- 23 million people deemed severely food insecure across the Horn of Africa in December 2022.
- 5% area of the contiguous United States suffering severe to extreme drought (Palmer Drought Index) in May, 2023.
- 78 years since drought conditions were as severe as they were in the La Plata basin of Brazil–Argentina in 2022, reducing crop production and affecting global crop markets.
- 170 million people expected to experience extreme drought if average global temperatures rise 3°C above pre-industrial levels, 50 million more than expected if warming is limited to 1.5°C
Agriculture and forests
- 70% cereal crops damaged by drought in the Mediterranean, 2016–2018
- 33% loss of grazing land in South Africa due to drought
- Double or triple expected forest losses in the Mediterranean region under 3°C warming compared to current risk
- Five consecutive rainfall season failures in the Horn of Africa, caused the region’s worst drought in 40 years (with Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia particularly hard hit), contributing to reduced agricultural productivity, food insecurity and high food prices.
- Africa’s drought-related economic losses in the past 50 years at $70 billion.
- 44% expected drop in Argentina’s soybean production in 2023 relative to the last five years, the lowest harvest since 1988/89, contributing to an estimated 3% drop in Argentina’s GDP for 2023
Water conditions
- 75% reduction of cargo capacity of some vessels on the Rhine due to low river levels in 2022, leading to severe delays to shipping arrivals and departures
- 5 million people in southern China affected by record-low water levels in the Yangtze River due to drought and prolonged heat
- 2,000 backlog of barges on the Mississippi River in late 2022 due to low water levels, causing $20 billion in supply chain disruptions and other economic damage
Social dimensions
- 85% people affected by droughts who live in low- or middle-income countries
- 15 times greater likelihood of being killed by floods, droughts and storms in highly vulnerable regions relative to regions with very low vulnerability, 2010 to 2020
- 1.2 million people in the Central American Dry Corridor needing food aid after five years of drought, heatwaves and unpredictable rainfall
Remedies
- Up to 25% CO2 emissions could be offset by nature-based solutions including land restoration.
- Almost 100% reduction in the conversion of global forests and natural land for agriculture if just half of animal products such as pork, chicken, beef and milk consumed today were replaced with sustainable alternatives.
- 20 to 50% potential reduction in water waste if conventional sprinkler systems were replaced by micro-irrigation (drip irrigation), which delivers water directly to plant roots.
- 45% global disaster-related losses that were insured in 2020, up from 40% in 1980-2018. However, disaster insurance cover remains very low in many developing countries
- 50 km the resolution of the water distribution maps thanks to a recently-developed method of combining satellite measurements with high-resolution meteorological data, a major improvement from the previous 300 km resolution.
The report underlines land restoration, sustainable land management and nature-positive agricultural practices as critical aspects of building global drought resilience. By adopting nature-positive farming techniques, such as drought-resistant crops, efficient irrigation methods, no-till and other soil conservation practices, farmers can reduce the impact of drought on their crops and incomes.
Efficient water management is another key component of global drought resilience. This includes investing in sustainable water supply systems, conservation measures and the promotion of water-efficient technologies.
Disaster preparedness and early warning systems are also essential for global drought resilience. Investing in meteorological monitoring, data collection and risk assessment tools can help respond quickly to drought emergencies and minimize impacts. Building global drought resilience requires international cooperation, knowledge sharing as well as environmental and social justice.
Several countries already experience climate-change-induced famine, says the report adding forced migration surges globally; violent water conflicts are on the rise; the ecological base that enables all life on earth is eroding more quickly than at any time in known human history.
We have no alternative to move forward in a way that respects the planet’s boundaries and the interdependencies of all forms of life. We need to reach binding global agreements for proactive measures that are to be taken by nations to curtail the spells of drought, says the report.