The UK is facing a lack of information regarding the Covid situation this autumn, according to experts, as cases continue to rise.
While the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) is still monitoring certain Covid metrics, such as hospitalization numbers, many studies that track infection levels in the community have ended.
This has left the country uncertain about how Covid will progress in the coming months.
Professor Christina Pagel from University College London stated that a new wave of Covid appears to be underway, potentially influenced by waning immunity, new Omicron variants, and factors such as poor weather keeping people indoors.
Pagel added that with autumn approaching and people returning to school and work, Covid pressures may increase.
To address this situation, Pagel supports reintroducing the nationwide infection survey published by the Office for National Statistics for autumn and winter, as well as expanding it to cover flu and RSV. Alternatively, she suggests reinstating wastewater monitoring as a cheaper method used in many countries to track Covid prevalence and variants.
Pagel expressed concerns about a potential NHS crisis this winter if Covid, flu, and RSV all hit simultaneously. She stated, “We are definitely flying near blind.”
Professor Rowland Kao, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, also highlighted the decline in surveillance.
Regarding vaccination, Professor Danny Altmann from Imperial College London mentioned that although Covid cases are increasing, they started from a low level, and the mildness of Covid is largely due to most people still being within a year or so of having received three vaccine doses. He emphasized the importance of planning for another round of boosters and considering the specific vaccine to be used.
Professor Adam Kucharski from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine acknowledged that exposure to Covid would affect population immunity levels. However, he agreed that there are uncertainties about how Covid will unfold, including the possibility of multiple waves per year.
Kucharski noted that the UK is no longer in the phase of rapid actions taken during the pandemic, where detailed surveillance was crucial. Surveillance now focuses on understanding vaccine effectiveness, waning immunity, and the factors that drive infection waves.
Another vaccination campaign, targeting specific health conditions or age groups, is expected to be launched later this year. The UKHSA acknowledges ongoing discussions about scaling up testing.
Professor Steven Riley, the director general of data, analytics, and surveillance at the UKHSA, stated that protecting the public from Covid-19 remains a top priority for the agency. He mentioned that they continue to monitor the threat of Covid-19 through various surveillance systems and genomics capabilities, which provide information on infection rates, hospitalizations, and the risks posed by new variants.