The agency’s latest Coal Market Update showed demand rising by about 5.5% in the first half of 2023 on continued strong economic growth and reliance on coal. “With growth in the power sector slowing down a bit in the second half, we expect a total increase of 5% for the year, totaling 1.2 BT,” the report said, pegging the growth in 2022 at 1.1 billion tonne.
China and India will account for 70% of global coal consumption — or double the amount of coal burnt in the rest of the world combined, the report said. Together with a double-digit growth in consumption in Indonesia, rising Asian demand will offset decline in the US and Europe.
“Along with recent growth in Southeast Asia, the dominance of the Asia continent is further increasing. In 2024, the share of China, India and the ASEAN region is expected to reach 76%. At the same time, the United States’ and the European Union’s share of coal consumption, which amounted to 40% three decades ago, will fall to 8% by 2024,” the report said.
Globally, demand is seen topping the record level of 2022. “As projected in the Coal 2022 report last December, global coal demand reached a new all-time high in 2022, rising above 8.3 billion tonnes. It rose despite a weaker global economy, mainly driven by being more readily available and relatively cheaper than gas in many parts of the world,” the report said.
“The turn to coal-fired generation was further supported by overall weak nuclear power and hydropower production, contributing to a new record global high of 10440 terra-watthour being generated from coal, representing 36% of the world’s electricity generation, up one percentage point compared to 2021. In addition, final 2021 demand numbers for coal were revised upward, particularly in China, meaning that 2022’s increased demand was coming off an even higher base,” the report said.