BLOOMINGTON – It was no secret Indiana arrived into its 2023-24 season a glaringly incomplete team.
Coach Mike Woodson said in the preseason he was still working through the strengths and makeup of his group. So while they’ve been painful at times, the growing pains of these first nine games shouldn’t have come as a surprise.
Nevertheless, as the Hoosiers pass the quarter pole of their season, many of the wins have been small (with the possible exception of Michigan), while the defeats have been chastening.
Insider: Marquee matchups IU wanted so badly need to be more than annual pre-Christmas humbling
With Kansas upcoming, we’ll take stock of the good, the bad and the to-be-determined about this team in our quarterly report.
Team MVP: Kel’el Ware
One of two high-profile arrivals this offseason, alongside Mackenzie Mgbako, Ware has been a revelation. Maligned for his work rate and focus in one season at Oregon, the former top-10 recruit has again moved his name into first-round draft consideration with a series of impressive performances.
Through nine games, Ware is the Hoosiers’ leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker. His defensive presence, at 7-2 with equally intimidating reach, in some respects even rivals that of Trayce Jackson-Davis’ last two seasons at IU.
Ware’s tempo-adjusted numbers are just as good. He’s added 14 points to his effective field goal percentage, upped his assist rate while cutting down on turnovers, drawn more than twice as many fouls per 40 minutes as he’s committed (5.5 to 2.5), and even hit 6-of-12 3s. In two Big Ten games, his defensive rebounding rate is 39.4%, first in the conference.
He’s put the extra 32 pounds added to his frame − based on listed heights and weights, from last season − to this one to good use. But after a frustrating and bemusing freshman season in Eugene, Ware has come to Indiana and immediately looked the part of potential lottery pick again.
Team Strength: Post scoring
Woodson spent the offseason telling anyone who would listen he didn’t normally build offenses around post players, the way he did with Jackson-Davis. Then he replaced Jackson-Davis with Ware, elevated Malik Reneau in place of Race Thompson, and doubled down on post-offense bully ball.
Ware has been the surprise package leading this team forward into December. Reneau, one of just two other players averaging double figures in scoring (Xavier Johnson is the third), walks right alongside his classmate.
They work well together for a variety of reasons. Ware can move around offensively, and is in some cases as comfortable scoring outside 5 feet as he is inside it. A natural center, he has good lob instincts, a nice complement to Reneau’s passing ability. Reneau, not by accident, has IU’s highest assist rate.
While both players are competent with both hands, they are naturally opposite. Ware prefers his right, Reneau his left, so IU can play through the post without fear they will get in each other’s way. Ware’s wingspan also means he can stay clear of the circle when Reneau attacks the rim, without giving up his offensive-rebounding threat.
And both are remarkably efficient. Theirs rank among Indiana’s best effective field goal and true shooting percentages, and Reneau is actually better finishing 2s, by a couple ticks of a percentage point, than Ware.
Coupled to the growth in Kaleb Banks and the remarkable efficiency of Anthony Walker (62.5% on 2s), Indiana has been able to ride its frontcourt success to some important early results. The Hoosiers score 61.9% of their points on 2s, seventh nationally, as their post offensive props them up heading toward the new year.
Team Weakness: Practical efficiency
Much is rightly made of IU’s 3-point problem. For the third year running, the Hoosiers neither take nor make a sufficient quantity of 3-pointers to space the floor efficiently enough to capitalize on their post strength.
If anything, the problems have deepened since Woodson suggested a decreased reliance on Jackson-Davis’ generational talent meant they might improve. Woodson and his staff did not adequately replace Miller Kopp or Tamar Bates, and Trey Galloway’s accuracy behind the arc has regressed.
The result? Only three teams take fewer 3s as an overall percentage of their field-goal attempts, and only one scores a lower percentage of its points from distance. The Hoosiers have only outscored one opponent, Maryland, in a single game behind the 3-point line, and they have yet to attempt more than 17 across 40 minutes.
And yet, the inefficiency runs deeper.
Despite that excellence in the post, IU is neither particularly good percentagewise rebounding the ball offensively, nor keeping opponents off the glass. The Hoosiers are average at best limiting turnovers, perhaps a reflection of a reinforced desire to play fast offensively, and they’re worse than average at forcing turnovers. They still struggle to adequately defend without fouling. No player has an assist rate over 21.9%.
All of which leads to a defense currently ranked No. 77 nationally by Ken Pomeroy in adjusted efficiency. Based on year-over-year trends, without improvement in some key areas, that number will rise once Big Ten play begins.
The Hoosiers (7-2, 2-0) are, right now, at best a one-paced blunt instrument still attempting to fine-tune certain aspects of themselves; and at worst just a sluggish, inefficient team too reliant on post presence and unable to get the most out of that on a shrinking court.
Either way, Indiana is a long way from where it wants to be.
Best Offensive Player: Malik Reneau
With full respect to Ware, Reneau deserves his flowers here as well.
He’s ever so slightly better on 2s than Ware, while nearly matching his frontcourt mate in rim protection, rebounding and free-throw shooting. It’s also worth noting Reneau’s team-leading assist rate deserves at least some credit for Ware’s success, Reneau feeding a lot of those assists to his buddy ball — a Woodson term — partner in the post.
Reneau has also saved some of his best games for the Hoosiers’ biggest moments. He was the only thing keeping IU afloat for long stretches in the UConn loss, he scored 11 of his 17 points against Harvard in an Xavier Johnson-less second half, and Reneau’s 11 points in the same frame at Michigan were a steadying force down the stretch of a tight league game.
His ability to create for his teammates hands Reneau the nod here, though truthfully, we could have picked either starting frontcourt player. Ware and Reneau complement each other so well. Either is capable of carrying Indiana on a given day. The Hoosiers would be much worse without either.
Best Defensive Player: Kel’el Ware
He is Indiana’s best rim protector, the Hoosiers’ best rebounder and their most intimidating presence. When he’s switched on defensively, opponents won’t even attack him, and the space he eats up on the floor with his height plus reach is remarkable.
Even next to other talented basketball players, Ware looks a class and cut above. After the Maryland win, doing a postgame TV hit, Ware stood next to and towered over former Notre Dame star LaPhonso Ellis, himself listed at 6-8 during his playing days.
What’s most impressive, if difficult to quantify, is Ware’s presence. When he’s playing with the effort and intensity Woodson has challenged him to bring, Ware imposes himself on a game defensively. He changes the entire structure and plan of an opponent’s attack.
There are precious few players in the Big Ten as singularly disruptive.
Best 3-point shooter: Kel’el Ware
Perhaps when he returns from his lower-leg injury, Johnson will take this mantle. Mgbako has shown signs of breaking his slump, hitting five of his past 16 3s. There still exists in Galloway the player that shot 47.1% in league play last year, second-best in the Big Ten. Gabe Cupps is a commendable 4-of-11; and yes, Ware has only attempted 12.
But then, not many have attempted more, a reflection of Indiana’s inability to weaponize the 3-point line. No one has been as efficient (Ware sank six of those). And no Hoosier has made more, speaking to the aforementioned larger problem. Ware might not be shooting many, but he’s picking his spots and making them often enough when he does. Just as importantly, they fit into the wider growth of Ware’s offense, complementing his other skills, something far too few of his teammates can say.
Best Playmaker: Malik Reneau
Long-term, this is probably Johnson, but he’s injured. So for now, it’s Reneau, whose post passing ability is approaching Jackson-Davis’ skill.
Woodson learned a valuable lesson in Jackson-Davis’ distribution last season, flipping the block so the left-handed All-American would post up on the right, allowing him to turn toward the open side of the floor with his strong hand and open his range of passing options. Reneau, also a southpaw, often does the same, much to his team’s benefit.
Best off the Bench: Anthony Walker
Cupps’ defense gets a worthy mention here, though he’s currently in the starting lineup. And if we do this check-in a month from now, it’s not hard to see CJ Gunn’s growing defensive presence or Kaleb Banks’ all-action energy and offensive game changing our thinking.
For now, it’s Walker. The Miami transfer wasn’t as heralded as some when he arrived in the summer. So far, he’s done his best to rectify that. He averages the most points (6.8 per) of any bench regular, he’s finishing 62.5% of his 2s and he gets to the free-throw line regularly.
It helps that Walker is distinct as a forward option. He’s longer and leaner than Reneau, and quicker from the perimeter off the bounce than Ware. He has good instincts around the rim and a useful 8- to 10-foot floater. He might be replaced in this distinction eventually, but right now, he’s holding up the second unit as well as anyone.
Best Freshman: Mackenzie Mgbako
This was Cupps until about two weeks ago. Mgbako, the heralded five-star freshman, is beginning to come around.
Woodson says he doesn’t overweight expectations on his freshmen, but even he will understand where it comes from with Mgbako. The one-time Duke signee arrived in college a top-10 player in his class and a potential first-round pick. He struggled badly to find his feet in his first month.
That’s beginning to change. After averaging just five points per game in Indiana’s first five, Mgbako has scored in double figures in each of four games since. He was instrumental in the defeats of Harvard and Maryland, and gave a good accounting of himself (11 points, four rebounds) at Michigan.
His shot shows signs of improvement, and his activity level rebounding the ball and forcing his way to the free-throw line — where Mgbako remains perfect, 21-of-21 — is encouraging.
His growth curve is starting to bend upward. It must continue.
Final thoughts
In the strictest sense, IU is right about where we should’ve expected.
The Hoosiers turned over half their roster from a season ago, losing a tremendous amount of statistical production. And few teams would be better for seeing their program’s all-time leading rebounder and shot blocker, and third-leading all-time scorer, out the door.
Woodson cautioned this team would take time, a promise fulfilled by ugly losses to UConn and Auburn. In that light, the 2-0 start to Big Ten play (albeit to a pair of teams also scuffling early) should be cast positively.
But the eye test also shows something different.
The Hoosiers appear to be a dangerous anachronism right now. They do not or cannot play basketball with a modern bend, because they cannot space the floor. Their sixth-year point guard is dealing with another vaguely worrisome injury. No one is shooting or hitting 3s at the required volume, and despite promises that change was coming to the post-heavy offense of his first two seasons, Woodson has seemingly doubled down on his loyalty to paint control.
Even at its best, Indiana has been a poorly constructed battering ram, too reliant on post offense it can’t protect with good shooting, and not nearly tight enough defensively to compensate for offense that nearly always needs to score the hard way.
That has been good enough to construct the aforementioned start to league play, but will it deliver the kinds of wins Woodson needs to build another tournament-worthy resume? Poor performances against UConn and Auburn don’t offer much hope, and if the Hoosiers cannot upset Kansas on Saturday in Bloomington, they will take nothing of March value out of November and December.
There has too often been too much work and not enough progress from this work-in-progress group, and its preferred style only shrinks IU’s room for error. Even Johnson’s return would not fix all that ails this team.
The Hoosiers still retain more than enough runway to become the team that fits their ambitions. But the climb is steeper, even, than we might have expected in the preseason. There remains much to prove.
As with any small college basketball sample size, however, a win Saturday would certainly change this outlook tremendously.
Follow IndyStar reporter Zach Osterman on Twitter: @ZachOsterman.