As House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) concluded his pre-summer break press conference in late July, he rebuked skeptical reporters who doubted House Republicans’ ability to pass legislation and overcome internal disagreements within the caucus. McCarthy taunted the press corps, stating that they consistently questioned Republicans’ unity early in the week, only to be proven wrong by the end of the week when the GOP majority achieved wins on the House floor. McCarthy expressed anticipation for the reporters’ doubts at the beginning of the week but also welcomed questions about the following week.
Although McCarthy appeared confident, the failed passage of a bill funding the Agriculture Department that same week highlighted the division within the Republican Party. Disagreements between a faction of far-right House Republicans, including the House Freedom Caucus, and other party members who were less insistent on spending cuts, explained why many doubt Congress’s ability to pass the remaining 11 funding bills before the fiscal year ends on September 30. Even if McCarthy manages to unite the GOP, the extremely limited time frame of 12 days for the House to pass the bills and the ideological differences with the Senate make the task nearly impossible.
As a result, there are two likely options for Congress: passing a stopgap bill to keep the government operating or facing a government shutdown. Representative Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, predicts that a shutdown is more probable due to dissension within the Republican ranks. Complicating matters further is the congressional calendar, with members of the House scheduled to return to Washington on September 12 for just 12 days of session, while the Senate returns on September 5 for 17 days.
The core division fueling the pessimism is illustrated by the House Freedom Caucus, which aims to drastically reduce federal spending on agencies and programs, characterizing the upcoming fight as an opportunity to curtail Washington’s addiction to spending. However, the Senate seems more united, with Senator Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine), the chair and ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, respectively, agreeing to spend approximately $13.7 billion more than the spending caps outlined in the debt limit deal. They argue that these funds are necessary for emergencies.
In addition to the time constraints and ideological differences, determining the overall annual spending level poses another challenge. The House Republicans contend that the total should be lower than the debt deal cap, while the Senate proposes a higher bipartisan figure. This disagreement will need to be resolved by the Republican House, the Democratic Senate, and the White House.
It remains uncertain whether the House can successfully pass funding bills authored by Republicans. House leaders initially planned to address the agriculture funding bill but abandoned it due to the party’s internal spending differences. One contentious issue was the proposed funding for the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) federal voucher program, which helps pregnant women and young mothers afford food. The bill was criticized for potentially eliminating 650,000 to 750,000 beneficiaries from the program and reducing benefits for an additional 4.6 million individuals, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
Representative Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), the chairman of the panel responsible for funding the Environmental Protection Agency and the Interior Department, criticized hardline Republicans for jeopardizing their own party members by pushing for significant spending cuts. He argued that since negotiations with the Senate and the Biden administration would be necessary, those bills would not become law.
Apart from relying on Democrats to pass funding bills, which would undermine McCarthy’s leadership, there is also speculation that a stopgap bill will be passed, extending the funding fight into December. At that point, if the bills remain unresolved, the debt deal will reduce the funding total for 2024, setting the stage for a fiscal showdown. Simpson believes a shutdown to be unlikely, asserting that it is neither good policy nor good politics, with Republicans often taking the blame.
However, Representative Bob Good (R-Va.) holds a different perspective. At a Freedom Caucus press conference, he argued that the government shutdown should not be feared, as much of the work conducted in Congress is detrimental anyway. He claimed that most Americans would not even notice if the government temporarily shut down.