After a month of counting ballots, the results are in — 30,249 to 30,249, with Assemblymember Evan Low and Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian in an unprecedented tie in their race for second place in California’s congressional District 16.
It’s a stunning finale to a primary race that has captivated political onlookers with its twists, turns and almost daily lead changes. Simitian or Low was expected to face former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo — who locked in his top spot early on — in the general election. But now, all three will be vying to replace U.S. Rep. Anna Eshoo on the November ballot, according to California election code and confirmed by the Secretary of State’s Office on Wednesday.
Despite the razor-thin margin throughout most of the vote-counting, Low and Simitian hadn’t been locked in a tie until Wednesday — the final day of counting.
On Tuesday afternoon, Santa Clara County posted its unofficial results, with Low leading by one vote. But on Wednesday, San Mateo County recorded its remaining votes, adding one more to Simitian’s total to keep his congressional hopes alive. Both candidates ended with 16.61% of 182,135 votes cast.
Thursday marks the last day for counties to certify the results, effectively giving them a stamp of approval.
Matthew Alvarez, a partner at Rutan and Tucker who specializes in election law, called the results shocking.
“I’ve never seen anything like this in my career,” he said.
Alvarez noted that the race, which only saw a 41% voter turnout, could have swung a different way if any of the roughly 262,000 voters that didn’t cast a ballot in the district had decided not to stay home on Election Day.
Low and Simitian’s campaigns declined to comment on the results pending the certification, but Alvarez said it is “highly unlikely” that anything will change by the end of the day on Thursday.
Julie Edwards, a spokesperson for Liccardo’s campaign, didn’t comment on the results, instead saying that they “welcome the opportunity to continue to talk to voters about the issues facing our communities, including the high cost of living, utility rates and housing and Sam’s long record of fighting on behalf of residents.”
Both Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, where District 16 falls, confirmed that they were in the process of sending the results to the Secretary of State’s Office and that those results would not change from what was posted online Wednesday afternoon.
Larry Gerston, a professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University, called the results “extraordinarily unprecedented” and said that “these things only happen in the movies.”
While a three-person race seems likely, Gerston said it’s not guaranteed and that either Simitian or Low could go for a recount.
“This is when Simitian and Low have to decide if they’re likely to fare better in a three-person race or a two-person race,” he said. “That’s what it comes down to. What they’re going to do now is look and see where their strengths are, where their weakness are, and what portion of the electorate they can take from Liccardo.”
The former mayor ended the race with 38,489 votes, or 21.13% of the total vote, which Gerston said would make him very hard to beat in the general election.
Candidates, or any California voter, has five days after the results are certified by the state on April 12 to request a recount. But it would come at a risk of uncertain results and a hefty cost.
In Santa Clara County, where a majority of the district falls, the registrar of voters estimates a manual recount would take approximately 10 days and cost $32,000 per day, for a total of $320,000. Re-scanning ballots, which is less likely to pick up any errors, would take about five days at a cost of $16,840 per day, for a total of $84,200. Recounting votes in San Mateo County, which makes up roughly 18% of the district, would come at an additional cost.