Manitobans will go to the polls in exactly one month — Tuesday, Oct. 3 — but unofficial campaigns are already well underway.
Incumbent Premier Heather Stefanson will try to lead her Progressive Conservatives to a third consecutive victory in the province but she faces a strong challenge from the NDP.
Stefanson became premier after she won her party’s leadership race in the fall of 2021 but she is aiming to be the first woman in the province’s history to win the job in a general election.
Her chief opponent is New Democrat Leader Wab Kinew and if the NDP wins, Kinew will make history as Canada’s first “First Nations” provincial premier.
Stefanson’s party has been behind in the polls for most of her time as premier but that gap has now narrowed.
“Heather Stefanson since coming into office has been very clear that she is supportive of the so-called Freedom convoy, the Anti-vaxx movement, and is very willing to stoke divisive language when it comes to Ottawa and Justin Trudeau,” said Niigaan Sinclair, professor in Native Studies at the University of Manitoba.
While the vote isn’t until next month, campaigning has been underway since late spring and both parties expect a tough fight.
“It’s almost block by block. It’s almost going to be neighbourhood by neighbourhood, 300, 500 votes difference in 10 different ridings. I think that’s how tight this might be,” said Mary Agnes Welch of Probe Research.
For Kinew, this will be his second election as NDP leader and while the Tories did win a majority in 2019, Kinew was credited with turning around the NDP’s fortunes and picking up eight seats.
“The NDP has been very specific in positing Wab as not a First Nations premier, but a premier for all. And of course, if you look in politics, no Indigenous person is going to win solely catering to Indigenous interests,” Sinclair said.
Now, Stefanson will be trying to follow back-to-back majority wins by her predecessor Brian Pallister with one of her own.
“The issues that matter to all Canadians are kind of just writ large at the core of this campaign. It’s health care, post-COVID, it’s cost of living, it’s crime and safety, which is quite a surprisingly big issue in Winnipeg,” Welch said.
The key battleground in this election will be the ridings that ring Winnipeg. While the NDP has a core of strength in central Winnipeg, the PCs hold suburban ridings and it’s those ridings — this ring around Winnipeg — that the NDP must win if Kinew has a shot at power.
The PC campaign will be geared at convincing voters to keep these ridings blue.
— with files from Global’s David Akin
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