Well, the unthinkable – or at least the scenario Australian fans didn’t want to think about – is here.
After just two Group B games, the Matildas are on the brink of crashing out of the FIFA Women’s World Cup.
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It was a tournament that promised so much but a calf injury to Sam Kerr and unsteady play against Ireland and Nigeria have cruelled the team’s hopes of cruising through to the knockout rounds.
So what happens now?
Matildas forward Caitlin Foord.
Credit: Getty
The Matildas’ next game is just a few days away, with Olympic champions Canada lying in wait for a clash at 8pm AEST on Monday, July 31 at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium.
And there are two likely outcomes for Australia, as well as two unlikely of varying degrees.
Win and they’re in. Lose and they’re out. It’s that simple – but the permutations don’t end there.
A draw will send Canada through to the Round of 16.
For the Matildas to then join the Tokyo 2020 gold medallists in the knockout stage, they would also need Ireland, who are already eliminated, to pull a rabbit out of a hat against Nigeria when those two sides clash at the same time on Monday at Brisbane Stadium.
In one possible but seemingly unlikely scenario, the Matildas can progress by scoring one more goal in a draw with Canada than Nigeria can manage in a one-goal loss to Ireland.
In the last and most unlikely scenario, the Matildas can progress with any draw against Canada if Ireland produce a miracle win over Nigeria by two goals or more.
So, really, the equation boils down to this for the Matildas: they must take charge of their own destiny and beat Canada.
How it stands in Group B after two matchdays.
Credit: Channel 7
If the Matildas can do that, they will still be relying on the Nigeria-Ireland result to learn where they will finish in Group B.
Nigeria will top the group with a victory and that would send Australia into a Round of 16 clash with the winner of Group D on Monday, August 7 at Brisbane Stadium.
If Nigeria draw or lose against Ireland then the Matildas will suddenly top Group B and face the runner-up of Group D on the same day at Stadium Australia.
Those Group D positions are likely to be settled with Friday night’s clash between reigning European champions England and Denmark in Sydney.