Have the Dodgers made baseball unfair?
Baseball has always been unfair. It wasn’t “fair” when players were bound to the same teams for their whole careers, and it isn’t “fair” that the Dodgers spend so much more than the Athletics. But I’m more concerned about the many teams that could be spending more but abstain. AK
Don’t hate the player or the game. Hate the MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and his Players Union counterpart, Tony Clark: the folks responsible for the Death Star sized loopholes which inspired Shohei Ohtani’s $700m contract. The deal pays the modern-day Babe Ruth just $2m a year until 2033, enabling baseball’s new evil empire to add even more pricey pieces. Unfair? Oh yeah, but it’s not LA’s fault: I’m kicking all the blame to baseball’s upper management. DL
The business of baseball is inherently unfair and continues to tarnish a beautiful sport. It is fun to have a villain, though, and the Dodgers took advantage of their resources and attractive market to become just that. While the sheer volume of money the sky will rain on Ohtani for the rest of his life is astonishing, the disparity in spending between rich front offices and also-rans is nothing new. MJ
No. Even though the Dodgers agreed to pay two players (Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto) more than $1bn combined over the next 12 years, they don’t have the highest payroll in Major League Baseball this season and aren’t paying the highest competitive balance tax. The Dodgers are doing what the smartest franchises – think Manchester United under Sir Alex Ferguson – have historically done: make their brand recognizable across the world. The Dodgers are wealthy, but they don’t hoard it like other owners do. It’s not a surprise that they lead MLB in attendance every year. GB
What I’m most looking forward to …
The return of Oneil Cruz, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 6ft 7in shortstop, will be a treat. Cruz missed all but nine games last year after breaking his leg in April. When Cruz is healthy – as he seems to be – nobody hits the ball harder, runs faster, or has a better arm. AK
The evolution of the Baltimore Orioles. They’ve added ace Corbin Burnes, and are soon to have new ownership that could invest further in a young flock who surprised with 101 wins in 2023. That said, they sent super-prospect Jackson Holliday down to the minors to start the season, annoying his dad and the fan base. But he’ll be in B’more soon enough, adding even more dynamism to the best team in the AL East. DL
Juan Soto and Aaron Judge hitting back-to-back. These two feeding off each other have a chance to be one of the most potent duos in MLB history. The Yankees remain one of baseball’s most reviled teams but it’s going to be hard to look away when these two are up. MJ
The Dodgers will be under as much pressure to perform as any team since the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs were trying to end their historic World Series droughts. They may be the first “must-watch” team for devoted and casual baseball fans since the dominant Yankees teams of the late 1990s and early 2000s. GB
Young player to watch
Wyatt Langford. The No 4 pick in last summer’s draft will start the season in the lineup for the defending World Series winners, the Texas Rangers. He’ll share an outfield with Evan Carter, who shone as a rookie during Texas’ pennant run last year. I love watching athletes who can hit. AK
Yoshinobu Yamamoto hasn’t had an ERA over 2.00 since 2020, that is, until opening day in Korea left the Dodgers’ new Japanese ace with a fat 45.00 on his ledger. How Yamamoto copes with the new, larger ball, his new surroundings, Major League bats and big league pressure will make his every start fascinating to watch. DL
Evan Carter. The breakout star of the 2023 World Series is quite the intriguing watch headed into his first full season with the Rangers. It will surely come with ebbs and flows but if Carter’s OPS is anywhere near the .917 he carried in the postseason, watch out baseball. MJ
Jackson Holliday. He won’t be with the Orioles on Opening Day, but it should not be long until the 20-year-old infielder arrives at Camden Yards. Jackson has already flashed a brilliant combination of power, speed and plate discipline that will add further excitement to one of the best young rosters in baseball. GB
MVP winners
Juan Soto in the American League, as he’ll be the best outfielder on a team that also has the great Judge and plays in the New York spotlight. Fernando Tatis Jr in the National League; he took well to right field last year, and he’ll keep raking in the middle of San Diego’s lineup. AK
Juan Soto is playing for a new contract and landed in just the right place to showcase his prodigious pop. Yankee Stadium is where left-handed power goes to graze and Soto will feast on its short porch to the tune of 50 plus home runs, earning AL honors. In the NL, Ronald Acuña Jr will be back in the winners circle. Last season included 41 homers, 73 stolen bases and over 200 hits in his epic MVP duel with Mookie Betts. While the Dodgers shortstop has it all, the ceiling keeps on rising for Acuna. DL
Juan Soto already was one of the youngest players ever to hit 150 home runs. Now he’ll play half his games at Yankee Stadium, the third-most home run friendly ballpark for lefties. Expect Soto to make any swing adjustments necessary to crush the ball over that infamous short porch – and other parts of the stadium too. In the NL, Bryce Harper looks sharper than ever a year after his return from Tommy John surgery. Provided he stays healthy, his disciplined bat should produce a flashy, undeniable stat line. MJ
In the AL, Adley Rutschman, the Orioles’ young catcher is already one of the league’s most disciplined hitters (he tied for third in the AL with 92 walks in 2023) and is an excellent defensive catcher (he was the only catcher in 2023 to start over 100 games and not have a passed ball). In the NL, Ronald Acuña Jr should receive stiff competition from Betts again, but the LA star may struggle to adapt to playing shortstop every day for the first time in his career. GB
AL East winners
With the Yankees’ beset by pitching question marks (the result of both the Soto trade and an injury to Gerrit Cole), the Blue Jays can finally get over the hump after three wildcard losses in four years. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr will hit. AK
I’ve already poured my heart out about the Orioles, who, it’s true, do have some pitching holes, even after acquiring Burnes. And can you believe it, the savants over at FanGraphs have them at just 85 wins. How can that be? It would be a stunning regression. Even so, the Yankees, Soto and all, have a massive Cole in their rotation, with Gerritt out until, what? June? July? Next season? B’more are better than the Rays and Jays. They’ll repeat. DL
This division is stacked but no team is as loaded as Baltimore. The Orioles are returning most of their starting lineup across the board and added a stud ace in Burnes. And while Holliday is starting the season in the minors, he could easily be called up in a week or two and end the season as Rookie of the Year. MJ
The Orioles are built to win close to 100 games in the regular season if the pitching staff can remain healthy. They feature two potential MVP candidates (Rutschman and infielder Gunnar Henderson) and a number of young, powerful hitters that should make them one of the most fearsome offenses in baseball. Baltimore should thrive during an otherwise uncertain time for usually strong teams like the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox. GB
AL Central winners
Someone has to win the division, so it may as well be the Twins. The lineup lacks a star but has depth, and Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are a nice 1-2-3 punch of starting pitching. Plus there’s just not much worthy competition elsewhere in the division. AK
Imagine the AL Central was a powerhouse of a division? You’d have to have a pretty good imagination. This is the Twins division and their formula is simple: keep their stars like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton healthy and pitch a little better than last season. They should squeeze out 90 wins, play a few postseason games and then go golfing. DL
The Twins won the division last season with a very lukewarm Correa, at least in the regular season. But this year he steps it up, stays healthy, and powers the division’s most explosive offense. The Twins have impressive depth as well but admittedly this is largely a default pick. MJ
This remains the weakest division in baseball and the Twins should return to the playoffs after being knocked out in last year’s American League Division Series. The brightest potential star is third baseman Royce Lewis, a former top overall pick who has battled injuries throughout his brief career, but enjoyed an outstanding finish to the 2023 season that included four grand slams. GB
AL West winners
The Rangers are the defending world champions, but this division belongs to the Astros until further notice. Houston’s stalwart veteran bats will be enough to take the division crown for a fourth year in a row, and Yordan Álvarez could be the best hitter in the world. AK
The Mariners have some of the best pitchers around, but unfortunately, management wouldn’t give the offense the extra ammunition it needs this offseason to take that step up. The AL West is a tough neighborhood, home to the last two World Series champs, and Seattle isn’t going to fend off Houston and Texas without some additional investment. And that’s a shame, with George Kirby, Luis Castillo and of course, Julio Rodriguez, the core is there. Texas and Houston both have rotation health problems, and who gets healthiest the fastest will dictate the winner. I’m going with the reigning World Series champs, the Rangers, with Jacob deGrom back in August to hammer down the ‘Stros. DL
Expect a nailbiter to the finish once again but Houston takes the division thanks to their strong top-to-bottom lineup. The offensive stars have mostly remained, the addition of Josh Hader is a plus, and none of the other AL West retooled enough to usurp the Astros. MJ
The Rangers won last year’s World Series, but Houston still have the best team for a 162-game season. The addition of the flamethrowing Hader to an already dominant bullpen will make them exceptionally tough to beat in the late innings. GB
NL East winners
The Braves have built a machine, and it should keep churning out division titles. Ronald Acuña Jr is the best baseball player breathing right now, the lineup around him is deep, and nobody has a clearly better pitching duo than Atlanta do in Spencer Strider and Max Fried. AK
Clear two-horse race, and one of those horses has a limp. OK, maybe that’s a tad rude to say about a Phillies team that should’ve played World Series baseball last October, but there’s just no way any team in that NL East can compete with Alex Anthopoulos’s machine in Atlanta, at least in the regular season. The Braves have the deepest offense in MLB and while the rotation has some health question marks, Atlanta should win their seventh straight division title. DL
Atlanta have arguably the most impressive top to bottom roster in baseball. They have two Cy Young candidates in their rotation, they fortified their bullpen in the offseason, and have some dude named Ronald Acuna Jr. The bigger question is whether the Braves can shake the monkey off their back against the Phillies in the playoffs when/if they meet again. MJ
It won’t be easy in a division with the star-studded Phillies and lingering Mets, but the Braves are the only team whose talent is comparable with the Dodgers. Not only did they feature last year’s NL MVP (Acuña), they also had the fourth-place finisher (Matt Olson) and the fourth-place finisher for the NL Cy Young Award (Spencer Strider). GB
NL Central winners
Nobody has reached out to grab the Central with offseason moves, but the Cubs are best positioned after re-signing center field-first base hybrid Cody Bellinger. The team’s offensive supporting cast of Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Nico Hoerner should be enough to beat the field. AK
How many wins will it take to win the NL Central: 84, 85? Who can win? Absolutely anyone can win the most wide open division in baseball, even the lowly Buccos. More realistically, the favorites are the retooled Cubs and the humiliated Cardinals, who need to bounce back from the rarest of season busts in 2023. Chicago brought in Brewers skipper Craig Counsell to prove they were legitimately trying. Re-signing Bellinger while inking pitchers Shōta Imanaga and Héctor Neris also showed their intent. The Cards are old with too many question marks. The Brewers are fading. Cubs win. DL
The Brewers and Cardinals will put up a valiant fight but the Cubs will eke out a division title. Don’t expect much more than 90 wins, though. Counsell is skilled at taking teams to the postseason. But will they ultimately be sunk by the lack of a megastar? MJ
The Reds have endured a cursed spring that saw them lose a bright prospect to a PED suspension (infielder Noelvi Marte) and top hitter to shoulder surgery (infielder Matt McClain). Still, they feature one of the game’s most electrifying young talents in shortstop Elly De La Cruz (who hit 13 homers and stole 35 bases in just 98 games last year) and a budding star in power-hitting first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who will be an unlikely contender to lead the National League in home runs. GB
NL West winners
The Dodgers will win this division, just as surely as there will be good weather, delicious Korean food, and tons of traffic in Los Angeles. There is no need to keep up a false pretense that anybody else has a chance to finish ahead of a team this complete. AK
How about being NL champions and having basically no shot at winning the West. That’s life for the Diamondbacks, who shocked the Phillies in the NLCS to make the World Series. The battle for second place also includes the Padres, who dealt Soto and lost Blake Snell, and the Giants, who have Snell in hand, new 3B Matt Chapman, and a rehabbing Robbie Ray. San Francisco spent big: now if they only still had Bruce Bochy in their dugout. And yes: the Dodgers will cruise to yet another division title. DL
Easy call or easiest call? Sure, it may not be wise to bet on the level of distraction the Ohtani scandal will bring throughout the season. It matters little when considering wins and losses, though. The Dodgers have five-to-six perennial All-Stars without Ohtani. They’ll be just fine. MJ
Freddie Freeman, Betts and Ohtani are three of the very best hitters in all of Major League Baseball. Barring injury, the starting pitching staff will have four star arms by the summertime. This division is excellent, but nobody catches the Dodgers over 162 games. GB
AL wildcards
Rangers, Orioles, Yankees. AK
Rangers, Yankees, Blue Jays. DL
Mariners, Rangers, Yankees. MJ
Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays. GB
NL wildcards
Phillies, Giants, Brewers. AK
Phillies, Giants, Padres. DL
Phillies, Padres, Diamondbacks. MJ
Padres, Phillies, Mets. GB
ALCS
Astros over Yankees. AK
Orioles over Astros. DL
Orioles over Yankees. MJ
Astros over Orioles. GB
NLCS
Braves over Dodgers. AK
Braves over Dodgers. DL
Braves over Cubs. DL
Dodgers over Braves. GB
World series
Braves over Astros. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball, but the Braves will have a more enticing set of starting pitchers for a best-of-seven series (particularly because Ohtani will not be ready to pitch again until 2025). Atlanta’s repertoire will be enough to conquer an elite but inevitably aging Astros team for the second time in four years. AK
Braves over Orioles. The Braves, 104 wins in the books last season, were ousted by a good Phillies team, who were beaten by a worse Diamondbacks team. Nothing, it seems, can stop baseball’s postseason crapshoot carousel from spinning undeserving teams into places they shouldn’t be. Except this season, Atlanta won’t play the victim, instead, sticking it to LA, making Freddie Freeman wish he never left home. They’ll face a young, cheap and extremely cheerful Orioles team, with a flurry of young stars that will have overperformed two years running, ousting the Yankees in the process. The kids are alright, but nothing like Atlanta and their meticulously built roster, with a pitching rotation bolstered at the deadline. It will be their second title in four seasons. Bravo. DL
Orioles over Braves. This time the Braves prevail over their playoff nemesis in Philadelphia to make the World Series. The lineup is just too powerful top-to-bottom. But the Orioles are poised to win it all. Last regular season was no fluke, more a glimpse into the Orioles’ future. The young players gained a valuable year of experience, and an already strong pitching staff got a stud in Burnes. MJ
Dodgers over Astros. I am blandly choosing what I believe to be the two most talented teams to win the pennant (and the four most talented teams to reach the championship series) and reverse the trend of the best teams suffering early playoff exits. Los Angeles will likely need to acquire a shortstop and one more starting pitcher at some point during the season, but their biggest foe will be the pressure they’ll meet as soon as October begins. Nothing seems to faze the Astros, who are still enjoying excellent play from reliable stars Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. Ultimately, I think the Dodgers edge the Astros by exploiting a starting pitching advantage and avoiding Houston’s devastating bullpen. GB