The Nevada men’s basketball team plays Boise State on Friday night at Lawlor Events Center. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Boise State (11-4, 2-0 MW) at Nevada (15-1, 2-0)
When: Friday, 7:30 p.m.
Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,536 capacity)
TV/Radio: FS1 /95.5 FM
Online: None
Betting line: Nevada by 6.5 points; total of 140.5
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Defend the three: Boise State started the season slow but has been playing much better of late, including a 65-58 win over No. 17 Colorado State on Tuesday, giving the Broncos a victory over the third-highest-ranked team in program history. The biggest reason for Boise State’s improved play is its improved 3-point shooting. In its first six games, Boise State made just 34-of-129 threes (26.4 percent). In its last nine games, the Broncos have made 78-of-194 threes (40.2 percent). Boise State is shooting 26.6 percent from three in its four losses; 40 percent in its wins. Nevada’s 3-point defense is stout — 31.9 percent allowed, 130th in NCAA — but it’s played just three top-130 3-point shooting teams in the nation in 16 games.
2. Tremendous ball pressure: The biggest question for Boise State entering the season was who’d replace All-MW point guard Marcus Shaver Jr. The thought was UC San Diego transfer Roddie Anderson III, but he’s struggled against an improved level of competition, averaging 3.9 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 24.1 minutes while shooting 29.6/23.1/36.4. Still, he’s played 60.4 percent of the Broncos’ minutes (fourth highest on the team) because Boise State lacks alternatives. The lack of a point guard has contributed to the Broncos ranking 229th in the NCAA in assist rate and 168th in turnover rate. With Boise State lacking strong ballhandlers, Nevada should have defensive success if it has tremendous ball pressure.
3. Win with depth: Perhaps Nevada’s biggest advantage in the MW is its depth. That’s especially true against Boise State, which was down to a seven-man rotation in its game earlier this week against Colorado State, a contest key big man Cam Martin (6.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.6 apg) missed with a shoulder injury. Martin’s status for Friday is unknown. Even with him, Nevada is the much deeper team. Boise State has an excellent starting five but not much behind that (true freshman Andrew Meadow chipped in a huge 11 points off the bench in a win over CSU). Nevada gets much more consistent production from its reserves, which is averaging around 20 points per game. If the Wolf Pack bench scores 20 in this one, it wins.
Prediction
Nevada 70, Boise State 66: Boise State is the more battled-tested team having played a top-30 schedule in the nation compared to Nevada’s sub-200 mark. That includes five Quad 1 games for Boise State (to Nevada’s two) and three Quad 2 games for the Broncos (to Nevada’s one). Credit Boise State for testing itself, even if that’s led to more losses to this point in the season than expected (the Broncos are still 11-4 and 2-0 in league). Both of these teams have elite defenses with Nevada ranking 30th in the nation and Boise State 33rd. Whichever offense finds a path to penetrate those strong units will win, and the Wolf Pack has more margin for error there because of its increased depth. Couple that with Nevada’s home-court advantage and Boise State’s 3-4 record away from home and I’ll predict a close Wolf Pack win. Season record: 14-2
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.