Because of the way the postseason schedule lined up, the two teams that lost Game 1 of their respective National League Division Series (and their fans) had a full day off, more than 24 hours, to sit and stew. And these two teams just so happened to be the best in the NL all season — the top two seeds who were able to bypass the Wild Card Series entirely.
Can they even up these series? Here’s a look at the big storylines for each team in the two NLDS games on Monday.
Phillies at Braves
Phillies lead 1-0
Zack Wheeler vs. Max Fried
6:07 p.m. ET, TBS
Phillies: Can Zack Wheeler keep the Braves’ bats silent?
It was bizarre, to say the least, to see the Braves’ offense, legitimately one of the best over the last 25 years, completely shut down by seven Phillies pitchers, none of whom were named “Wheeler” or “Nola.” Now they do get to face those two guys.
Wheeler gets the first crack at the Braves, and not only has he been fantastic over his last four starts — just six earned runs over 23 2/3 innings — he has become the Phillies’ most reliable, even dominant, postseason starter over his time in Philadelphia. He has a career 2.55 ERA in seven playoff starts for the Phillies, though one of his losses was against the Braves, in Game 2 of last year’s NLDS. He still pitched fine in that game, giving up three runs in six innings, which you’d have to think would be an acceptable outcome in this start. But if he’s as good as he was in the Wild Card Series win over the Marlins, or as he has been over his last four starts, he could give the Phillies a truly commanding lead in this series.
Braves: Is Max Fried up for this?
Fried, quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball for a good half-decade now, returned Aug. 4 to make his first start in three months after hitting the injured list with an elbow issue. He was terrific and remained so for his next eight starts, seemingly gearing up to be yet another Braves ace in front of their relentless lineup. And then a blister issue popped up. The blister on his left index finger flared up in a Sept. 21 win over the Nationals, and he hasn’t pitched since. He threw five innings of a simulated game last Tuesday and said he was happy to “keep my arm going and just made some guys feel like I was in some kind of competitive environment and coming out healthy.”
That’s a positive development (and certainly better than the alternative) but still not quite as reassuring as the Braves would like heading into what looks like a must-win Game 2 against the surging Phillies. Fried’s potential return, both from the elbow issue and the blister, has always felt like a happy bonus for a team that is completely stacked everywhere else. Now, down 1-0 at home, Fried pitching like Peak Fried feels essential. It feels like all that’s currently separating the Braves from the edge of oblivion.
D-backs at Dodgers
D-backs lead 1-0
Zac Gallen vs. Bobby Miller
9:07 p.m. ET, TBS
D-backs: Can they take advantage of how perfectly this has lined up for them?
Heading into Game 1, if you were to have asked a D-backs fan what they wanted to happen, they would have said something like: “Knock out Clayton Kershaw early, make the Dodgers use five relievers, not use any of our own high-leverage relievers and get ready for Zac Gallen to take us home in Game 2.” Check, check, check and … well, that last one is now up to Gallen.
You could make an argument there’s no starter in the postseason you’d rather have in this position than Gallen, who was a top NL Cy Young Award contender before a couple of rough starts in September knocked him off course. He was excellent in his last three starts, though, including an efficient Wild Card Series clincher against Milwaukee. The schedule lines up for him to pitch a decisive Game 5 in this series, if necessary. But considering how much the Dodgers’ rotation woes are mounting, Gallen, the best pitcher on either of these teams, could put the D-backs in a position not to worry about Game 5 … and instead start thinking about him pitching Game 1 of the NLCS.
Dodgers: Can they keep this thing from getting away?
To be clear, right off the bat here: What the Dodgers have done for the past decade has been incredible. The last time they didn’t make the playoffs was 2012, when Jamie Moyer was still pitching, and he’s about to turn 61 years old. It’s a run of success that is the envy of baseball and should not be diminished in any way whatsoever. OK? That clear? Good.
Because if the Dodgers go out in the NLDS against a lesser NL West foe for a second consecutive year — something that they’re going to be in serious danger of doing if they lose this game — fairly or not, all of their regular-season success would once again fade into the background, and they would be even more cemented as The Dynasty That Faded In October. (Their 2020 title was probably harder to win than a “normal” season’s title, but that doesn’t change that history will certainly not remember it that way.)
Game 1 was the sort of disaster you rarely see from the Dodgers, and it won’t be easy to recover, especially considering how many pitchers they used after pulling a completely ineffective Kershaw. Game 2 starter Bobby Miller was 13 years old when Los Angeles’ current postseason streak began. It’s not his fault the Dodgers are under immeasurable pressure on Monday night. That doesn’t mean he won’t feel the full brunt of it.